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mrschmidt20.bsky.social
@mrschmidt20.bsky.social
33 followers 29 following 170 posts
None of my replies, comments,(re-) tweets, or posts are to be understood as advice for any matter of life - especially not with respect to financial matters.

Author of https://compcap.substack.com
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mrschmidt20.bsky.social
mrschmidt20.bsky.social @mrschmidt20.bsky.social · Sep 6
New free Investment Musings post:
Warren Buffett's 'Owner Earnings' is a classic tool for value investors. But in 2025, it's missing a big source of value creation: intangible investments.
Accounting punishes companies for investing in their future. Here's a concept to tackle it
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "La Grande Complication: How To Value Hidden Options in Ring-Fenced Balance Sheets"

Consolidated
Math assumes you own the loss,
But the lender does.

substacktools.com/sharex/P1eE1...
December 13, 2025 at 10:07 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "The Discomforts of my Investing Style"

Red numbers persist,
Conviction wrestles the price.
Hold or exit? Wait.

substacktools.com/sharex/Hkhed...
December 12, 2025 at 5:47 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "The Architecture of Understanding: From Synapses to Serendipity"

Neurons fire, then wire.
Knowledge webs spin, thoughts connect.
Learning never stops.

substacktools.com/sharex/6YZFg...
December 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "To the Moon, or Sinking? Separating 'Rockets' from 'Torpedoes'"

Machines learn the truth:
Strong balance sheets, lean profits —
Winners hide plainly.

substacktools.com/sharex/_s4tD...
December 10, 2025 at 9:50 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "The Financial Fingerprints of a 'Scaled Economies Shared' Business"

Margins stay steady,
Customers gain from the scale.
Costco’s quiet moat.

substacktools.com/sharex/3Vvu2...
December 9, 2025 at 11:06 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
IWG $IWG.L is no longer a real estate company; it’s a platform that just opened ~1,000 locations for negligible net capital cost.

The market seems to price it as a recessionary landlord. The financials show a tech-enabled franchise model.
substacktools.com/sharex/sgcm2...
December 9, 2025 at 10:58 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Mind the Gap: An Intangible Twist on Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings"

R and D spending
Hidden growth masked as spending.
Mind the gap, find gems.

substacktools.com/sharex/bKBZA...
December 8, 2025 at 3:00 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Hidden Value on the Balance Sheet: An Investor's Guide to R&D Tax Incentives."

Tax credits reduce
What balance sheets truly show.
IP worth far more.

substacktools.com/sharex/WpeKT...
December 7, 2025 at 2:02 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Several hours sparring with an AI on the valuation logic of non-recourse debt: A rabbit hole of Real Options, "Hard vs. Soft" recourse, and WACC arbitrage.
Here is my current working thesis on how to value the hidden options in complex balance sheets:
substacktools.com/sharex/P1eE1...
December 6, 2025 at 1:30 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Beyond Working Capital: Spotting Business Model Strength in the Numbers"

Two cycles diverge
One measures ops, one the moat.
Watch the gap reveal.

substacktools.com/sharex/DKTMd...
December 6, 2025 at 10:23 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "The Cash Flow Conundrum" (maybe a more controversial article)

Lease rules distort truth
U.S. firms look cash-starved, false.
Adjust, find value.

substacktools.com/sharex/1JSsz...
December 5, 2025 at 10:12 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Update on @sensennet SenSen Networks ($SNS.AX):
✅ Survival Risk: Faded (Net Cash Positive).
✅ Orange Flag: Resolved.
🔄 New Phase: "Hidden Levers" and Land & Expand to grow

substacktools.com/sharex/FpMWG...
December 4, 2025 at 4:46 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Behavioral Edge = Triage + Bicycle + Kill Criteria?"

Facts change faster now
Our minds lag behind the truth
Update or decay

substacktools.com/sharex/JFCjF...
December 4, 2025 at 12:06 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Margin × Turnover: A Fresh Look at ROIIC Through DuPont's Lens"

Split returns apart,
Margin times turnover shows
New capital’s path.

substacktools.com/sharex/Nlw2o...
December 3, 2025 at 2:42 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day for "Adjusting SaaS Profits & ROIC For Churn"

Churn rate sets the clock
Amortize over lifetime,
Not random year counts.

substacktools.com/sharex/a5avO...
December 2, 2025 at 2:25 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Haiku of the Day: "Float" & Invested Capital

Prepayments flatter
Capital looks light? It’s not.
Adjust what is owed.

substacktools.com/sharex/PiQbN...
December 1, 2025 at 4:24 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
It's the season again :)

Daily haikus until XMas
Each captures a framework, a mental model, or a method I wrote about this year
Complex ideas. Simple words. 5-7-5 syllables.

Numbers hide the truth
Accounting rules mask value
Learn to see through noise

substacktools.com/sharex/Ft-xX...
November 30, 2025 at 6:29 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Turnarounds: where you spend half your time removing one-time items and the other half asking if they’ll happen again anyway.
Headline @emerge_ecom $ECOM.V Q3 was great: +58% Rev, swing to positive EBITDA
What happens if we strip out one-time accounting gains?
substacktools.com/sharex/JJD14...
EMERGE Commerce Q3 2025: Thesis Firming,
The
substacktools.com
November 29, 2025 at 3:40 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Turnarounds rarely turn.
But Exasol ($EXL.DE) now has positive adj EBITDA, generates cash, and no debt.
The headline decline masks a profitable core business growing at 24% with low churn.
It’s a long read, but this German micro-cap earned a deeper look.
substacktools.com/sharex/kBqmJ...
Exasol: Phoenix Rising from the Ashes of ZIRP?
How a failed SaaS pivot created a risk reward asymmetry in German tech.
substacktools.com
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 AM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
The market is pricing pico-cap @intouchinsight ($INX.V) like it's broken.
But the reality is:
✅ Margins are up after they cut a failed acquisition.
✅ The core business generates attractive FCF.
Pay for the stable base, get the SaaS & M&A upside for free.
substacktools.com/sharex/Xq-DP...
Intouch Insight (INX.V): Finding Asymmetry After a Failed Experiment
After decisively cutting a failed acquisition, messy financials hide a compelling, asymmetric risk/reward at a depressed pico-cap valuation.
substacktools.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:02 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
The sinking feeling when you're down 60% on a stock, but your analysis still says you're right? A brutal form of cognitive dissonance.
A bit personal, I wrote about how to survive it, and how to tell the difference between being "early" and being "wrong."
substacktools.com/sharex/Hkhed...
The Discomforts of my Investing Style
Surviving cognitive dissonance, loss aversion, FOMO, and the other painful realities of investing based on conviction.
substacktools.com
November 16, 2025 at 6:21 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
A nano-cap's revenue fell ~13%. But:
• Core SaaS business accelerating at +15%
• Balance sheet is now 100% debt-free
• A single webinar for a new product generated 30+ new public sector customers
• Adjusted Owner Earnings yield: ~8.5%
DYODD.
substacktools.com/sharex/c-ew2...
Nano-Cap SaaS Gem: How Margin Expansion and a Debt-Free Balance Sheet Trump a Revenue Decline.
Weak professional services revenue masked impressive SaaS growth, a fortified balance sheet, and a rapidly growing sales pipeline; but you would not know it from the headline numbers.
substacktools.com
November 14, 2025 at 8:27 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
Numbers don't lie. RAVE restaurant group ($RAVE) Q1 results:
✅ @pizzainn LFL sales: +8.1%
✅ Operating Income: +23.5%
✅ Adj Current Ratio: 11.5 & zero debt
The turnaround engine is revving, yet the market doesn't seem to notice. DYODD, details at:
substacktools.com/sharex/atwn3...
RAVE Q1 2026: The Fortress Balance Sheet Gets Stronger
Beneath modest top-line growth, Pizza Inn's strong sales increase and impressive operating leverage confirm the turnaround is accelerating.
substacktools.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:05 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
How can an airline have record aircraft utilization (+26%), grow revenues (+11%), and post a $2m net loss after consecutive profitable quarters?
Check the Q3 "Profit Paradox" at
@globalxairlines
$JETMF
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/Lvlj9...
GlobalX: The Q3 Profit Paradox
The airline hit record growth and still posted a loss. Deconstructing this apparent failure reveals why the investment case just got more interesting.
substacktools.com
November 12, 2025 at 6:47 PM
mrschmidt20.bsky.social
The market dumped Acorn Energy ($ACFN) after a 40% post-earnings drop. They saw slowing hardware revenue. I see an accelerating, high-margin business now trading at a discount.
Is the panic a gift?
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/bKucu...
Acorn Energy: What Becomes Of the Brokenhearted?
The share price dropped by 40% after weak hardware sales disappointed overly optimistic investors. Was this overdone?
substacktools.com
November 7, 2025 at 10:56 AM