Governments don’t often set piece opportunities to reset their political and economic messaging. Labour had an opportunity last week. Instead, it reinforced concerns about its approach and comms.

The announcement was also overshadowed by the Government’s controversial benefits reforms, which shaped public perception. 58% of people believe the Spring Statement makes disabled people worse off, 50% lower income people worse off.

Even before the Spring Statement, polling showed that voters weren’t sure what the way forward is (spend more? less? who knows?). A lack of a clearly defined strategy has impacted the comms and it means voters feel economic policy is directionless.

The party promised no tax rises for working people but later pointed to a £22bn “black hole” to justify tax hikes and spending cuts. It just wasn't good enough and has left many voters uncertain about Labour’s economic approach.

Labour’s economic messaging has been unclear since taking office. While their 2024 election win was built on the Conservatives' damaged reputation, they have struggled to present a clear vision for recovery.

Badenoch’s challenge: Appeal to those sceptical of the 2050 target... without sounding like she’s giving up on Net Zero altogether, because the public are not ready for that (yet!).

Labour has a trust advantage on energy policy. If the Tories want to compete, they must offer a credible vision for the UK’s energy future.

If Badenoch wants to make serious political capital out of this issue, she needs to shift her emphasis. Less about abandoning Net Zero - more about making it workable.

But arguing that Net Zero will harm the economy is trickier. Only 29% agree, while many believe it will have no effect—or even a positive impact.

Our latest @opiniumresearch.bsky.social polling shows 57% of Brits (and 71% of Tories) think the 2050 Net Zero target is unachievable. That’s a huge political opening for the sort of thing Badenoch wants to say.

In her speech on the Policy Renewal Programme, Kemi Badenoch made two key claims:

1. The UK can’t reach Net Zero by 2050.
2. The drive for Net Zero will hurt the economy.

One resonates strongly with voters. The other? Not so much.

Bucatini is my new favourite. When I'm feeling like branching out I go in for radiatori.

See the full write up last month from @priyaminhas.bsky.social at
@opiniumresearch.bsky.social 's substack: opinium.substack.com/p/labours-ba...

Labour has already made life harder for itself with how it’s communicated fiscal policy since day one. Benefits reform doesn’t have to continue that pattern.
But to turn this around, they need a more credible and politically smarter argument, and fast!

So what should Labour do? A few thoughts:
> Stop pretending this is just about helping people. Voters expect cuts to be about money... so explain how those savings will be used for something good.
> Don’t assume voters will buy the “we’re doing you a favour” argument. They won’t.

And politically? Labour is dividing its own side more than its opponents.
Labour voters are more opposed to these changes than other groups. If Labour can’t justify the policy to its own supporters, it’s in for a rough ride.