Andrew Arenge
@mrarenge.bsky.social
Penn Program on Opinion Research & Election Studies | NBC News Decision Desk | Usually analyzing digital political ads
Nearly $15M has been spent on targeted digital ads running in the 35 GOP held districts the DCCC is targeting
While ~$4.3M has been spent in the 26 districts the NRCC is targeting in next year's elections. American Action Network is doing most of the spending in these districts
While ~$4.3M has been spent in the 26 districts the NRCC is targeting in next year's elections. American Action Network is doing most of the spending in these districts
December 8, 2025 at 3:55 AM
Nearly $15M has been spent on targeted digital ads running in the 35 GOP held districts the DCCC is targeting
While ~$4.3M has been spent in the 26 districts the NRCC is targeting in next year's elections. American Action Network is doing most of the spending in these districts
While ~$4.3M has been spent in the 26 districts the NRCC is targeting in next year's elections. American Action Network is doing most of the spending in these districts
Just published another update to this interactive dashboard tracking digital political ads running in all 435 CDs: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Approaching $35M that has been spent on Meta + Google ads in CDs this year
Top CDs are held by GOP (3 of which have had over $1M spent this year)
Approaching $35M that has been spent on Meta + Google ads in CDs this year
Top CDs are held by GOP (3 of which have had over $1M spent this year)
December 8, 2025 at 3:49 AM
Just published another update to this interactive dashboard tracking digital political ads running in all 435 CDs: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Approaching $35M that has been spent on Meta + Google ads in CDs this year
Top CDs are held by GOP (3 of which have had over $1M spent this year)
Approaching $35M that has been spent on Meta + Google ads in CDs this year
Top CDs are held by GOP (3 of which have had over $1M spent this year)
Here's what daily spending on Facebook + Instagram political ads mentioning Epstein looks like for the full data - goes back 7 years
Seen uptick this year
If you divide daily spending estimates by platform wide spending, you'll discover a 10 fold increase from previous years
Seen uptick this year
If you divide daily spending estimates by platform wide spending, you'll discover a 10 fold increase from previous years
November 12, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Here's what daily spending on Facebook + Instagram political ads mentioning Epstein looks like for the full data - goes back 7 years
Seen uptick this year
If you divide daily spending estimates by platform wide spending, you'll discover a 10 fold increase from previous years
Seen uptick this year
If you divide daily spending estimates by platform wide spending, you'll discover a 10 fold increase from previous years
Over the past month, political digital advertisers have spent ~$100K on Facebook + Instagram ads mentioning the word "Epstein"
The Democratic Party - which has mainly run fundraising ads - is responsible for about half of that spending.
The Democratic Party - which has mainly run fundraising ads - is responsible for about half of that spending.
November 12, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Over the past month, political digital advertisers have spent ~$100K on Facebook + Instagram ads mentioning the word "Epstein"
The Democratic Party - which has mainly run fundraising ads - is responsible for about half of that spending.
The Democratic Party - which has mainly run fundraising ads - is responsible for about half of that spending.
NRCC started running this paid digital ad this week on Google in English & in Spanish tying all Democrats to NYC Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani.
The ad is being targeted at specific Congressional Districts across the country.
The ad is being targeted at specific Congressional Districts across the country.
November 8, 2025 at 2:35 AM
NRCC started running this paid digital ad this week on Google in English & in Spanish tying all Democrats to NYC Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani.
The ad is being targeted at specific Congressional Districts across the country.
The ad is being targeted at specific Congressional Districts across the country.
Congressman Nick Begich started running this digital ad in Alaska yesterday. It features the New York Post's front page from the day after Mamdani was projected to the be the winner.
November 8, 2025 at 2:35 AM
Congressman Nick Begich started running this digital ad in Alaska yesterday. It features the New York Post's front page from the day after Mamdani was projected to the be the winner.
Texas state representative Briscoe Cain - who is running for Congress in the newly drawn TX-9 Congressional District - started running this digital ad attacking Hakeem Jeffries for endorsing Mamdani.
This ad is only running in Texas.
This ad is only running in Texas.
November 8, 2025 at 2:35 AM
Texas state representative Briscoe Cain - who is running for Congress in the newly drawn TX-9 Congressional District - started running this digital ad attacking Hakeem Jeffries for endorsing Mamdani.
This ad is only running in Texas.
This ad is only running in Texas.
Former Congressman Madison Cawthorn, who is running for Congress in Florida, started running multiple ads on Facebook + Instagram related to Mamdani. Here's one of them.
All of Cawthorn's ads are only running in Florida.
All of Cawthorn's ads are only running in Florida.
November 8, 2025 at 2:35 AM
Former Congressman Madison Cawthorn, who is running for Congress in Florida, started running multiple ads on Facebook + Instagram related to Mamdani. Here's one of them.
All of Cawthorn's ads are only running in Florida.
All of Cawthorn's ads are only running in Florida.
TX Senator John Cornyn - who's in a tough primary battle - started running this ad going after Mamdani for saying he wanted to defund the police.
The ad is only running in Texas and is only targeted at woman.
The ad is only running in Texas and is only targeted at woman.
November 8, 2025 at 2:35 AM
TX Senator John Cornyn - who's in a tough primary battle - started running this ad going after Mamdani for saying he wanted to defund the police.
The ad is only running in Texas and is only targeted at woman.
The ad is only running in Texas and is only targeted at woman.
After Zohran Mamdani's win for NYC mayor on Tuesday, some GOP politicians started running paid digital ads on Facebook/Instagram tying the entire Dem party to Mamdani
Here's a🧵of the ads I caught in the data
MI GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers is running this ad nationwide
Here's a🧵of the ads I caught in the data
MI GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers is running this ad nationwide
November 8, 2025 at 2:35 AM
After Zohran Mamdani's win for NYC mayor on Tuesday, some GOP politicians started running paid digital ads on Facebook/Instagram tying the entire Dem party to Mamdani
Here's a🧵of the ads I caught in the data
MI GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers is running this ad nationwide
Here's a🧵of the ads I caught in the data
MI GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers is running this ad nationwide
In Virginia, daily spending in 2025 was much less than daily spending from 2021 - when Terry McAuliffe's campaign dropped a ton of money on these ads
Spending topped out around ~$293K the day before the election, which is higher than the high water mark from most other elections
Spending topped out around ~$293K the day before the election, which is higher than the high water mark from most other elections
November 6, 2025 at 2:47 PM
In Virginia, daily spending in 2025 was much less than daily spending from 2021 - when Terry McAuliffe's campaign dropped a ton of money on these ads
Spending topped out around ~$293K the day before the election, which is higher than the high water mark from most other elections
Spending topped out around ~$293K the day before the election, which is higher than the high water mark from most other elections
In New Jersey, daily spending in 2025 soared past daily spending from right before the election in 2021.
In fact, the daily sending in the state on was higher than any other day except right before the 2020 general election
In fact, the daily sending in the state on was higher than any other day except right before the 2020 general election
November 6, 2025 at 2:47 PM
In New Jersey, daily spending in 2025 soared past daily spending from right before the election in 2021.
In fact, the daily sending in the state on was higher than any other day except right before the 2020 general election
In fact, the daily sending in the state on was higher than any other day except right before the 2020 general election
We now have the Meta political ad daily spending data through the day before the election (which is usually a high mark)
Advertisers spent ~$3.1M on Facebook + Instagram ads on Nov 3 (which is only ~$50K more than the high point from '21)
See the data for all years: rpubs.com/aarenge/face...
Advertisers spent ~$3.1M on Facebook + Instagram ads on Nov 3 (which is only ~$50K more than the high point from '21)
See the data for all years: rpubs.com/aarenge/face...
November 6, 2025 at 2:47 PM
We now have the Meta political ad daily spending data through the day before the election (which is usually a high mark)
Advertisers spent ~$3.1M on Facebook + Instagram ads on Nov 3 (which is only ~$50K more than the high point from '21)
See the data for all years: rpubs.com/aarenge/face...
Advertisers spent ~$3.1M on Facebook + Instagram ads on Nov 3 (which is only ~$50K more than the high point from '21)
See the data for all years: rpubs.com/aarenge/face...
Here's the comparable data from Google's political ad archive. The National GOP is on the top spending list for both states on Google as well - but doesn't top the list.
November 2, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Here's the comparable data from Google's political ad archive. The National GOP is on the top spending list for both states on Google as well - but doesn't top the list.
Here's the Meta spending data for the largest digital political advertisers in New Jersey + Virginia for the last 7 days that we have the data (represents Friday, Oct 24 - Thursday, Oct 30).
The national Republican Party spent far more than any other advertiser in both states
The national Republican Party spent far more than any other advertiser in both states
November 2, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Here's the Meta spending data for the largest digital political advertisers in New Jersey + Virginia for the last 7 days that we have the data (represents Friday, Oct 24 - Thursday, Oct 30).
The national Republican Party spent far more than any other advertiser in both states
The national Republican Party spent far more than any other advertiser in both states
Slightly different way of visualizing the same data - taking the daily estimates of spending on Meta ads linking to ActBlue & dividing by spending on all Meta political ads
As a percent of overall spending, spending on ActBlue ads in 2025 is essentially on par with 2024 spending
As a percent of overall spending, spending on ActBlue ads in 2025 is essentially on par with 2024 spending
October 2, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Slightly different way of visualizing the same data - taking the daily estimates of spending on Meta ads linking to ActBlue & dividing by spending on all Meta political ads
As a percent of overall spending, spending on ActBlue ads in 2025 is essentially on par with 2024 spending
As a percent of overall spending, spending on ActBlue ads in 2025 is essentially on par with 2024 spending
Outside of the significant surges we've seen during presidential election years, the surge in spending we saw last month on Meta political ads linking out to ActBlue's platform was higher than any other moment in the data (which stretches back 7 years)
October 2, 2025 at 1:23 AM
Outside of the significant surges we've seen during presidential election years, the surge in spending we saw last month on Meta political ads linking out to ActBlue's platform was higher than any other moment in the data (which stretches back 7 years)
As we finished out Q3 & hit fundraising deadline, saw a huge uptick in the amount of money spent on Facebook/Instagram digital ads linking out to ActBlue
Surpassed over $500K spent on these ads yesterday
Saw huge difference between ads linking to ActBlue vs WinRed
Surpassed over $500K spent on these ads yesterday
Saw huge difference between ads linking to ActBlue vs WinRed
October 2, 2025 at 1:23 AM
As we finished out Q3 & hit fundraising deadline, saw a huge uptick in the amount of money spent on Facebook/Instagram digital ads linking out to ActBlue
Surpassed over $500K spent on these ads yesterday
Saw huge difference between ads linking to ActBlue vs WinRed
Surpassed over $500K spent on these ads yesterday
Saw huge difference between ads linking to ActBlue vs WinRed
Pete Buttigieg saw quite an uptick in spending on fundraising ads running on Facebook + Instagram recently
He was the 9th largest political advertiser running Meta ads last Thurs (the most recent daily spending data available)
Has spent $288K on these digital ads so far this year
He was the 9th largest political advertiser running Meta ads last Thurs (the most recent daily spending data available)
Has spent $288K on these digital ads so far this year
September 28, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Pete Buttigieg saw quite an uptick in spending on fundraising ads running on Facebook + Instagram recently
He was the 9th largest political advertiser running Meta ads last Thurs (the most recent daily spending data available)
Has spent $288K on these digital ads so far this year
He was the 9th largest political advertiser running Meta ads last Thurs (the most recent daily spending data available)
Has spent $288K on these digital ads so far this year
Totally different story in NJ
If we limit analysis to just candidates, Ciattarelli far outspent Sherill on Google (though Sherill was boosted by Greater Garden State - which is run by the Democratic Gov Assoc)
Neither candidate was in top Meta advertisers in NJ this past month
If we limit analysis to just candidates, Ciattarelli far outspent Sherill on Google (though Sherill was boosted by Greater Garden State - which is run by the Democratic Gov Assoc)
Neither candidate was in top Meta advertisers in NJ this past month
September 23, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Totally different story in NJ
If we limit analysis to just candidates, Ciattarelli far outspent Sherill on Google (though Sherill was boosted by Greater Garden State - which is run by the Democratic Gov Assoc)
Neither candidate was in top Meta advertisers in NJ this past month
If we limit analysis to just candidates, Ciattarelli far outspent Sherill on Google (though Sherill was boosted by Greater Garden State - which is run by the Democratic Gov Assoc)
Neither candidate was in top Meta advertisers in NJ this past month
Seeing a pretty massive mismatch in spending on Google + Facebook/Instagram digital political ads in the Virginia Governor race right now.
The data from both platforms indicates that Spanberger outspent Earle-Sears by ~4x over the past 30 days.
The data from both platforms indicates that Spanberger outspent Earle-Sears by ~4x over the past 30 days.
September 23, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Seeing a pretty massive mismatch in spending on Google + Facebook/Instagram digital political ads in the Virginia Governor race right now.
The data from both platforms indicates that Spanberger outspent Earle-Sears by ~4x over the past 30 days.
The data from both platforms indicates that Spanberger outspent Earle-Sears by ~4x over the past 30 days.
There were ~8K pages that used the word bipartisan in their Facebook + Instagram political ads over the past 7 years.
Here's a breakdown of the political advertisers who spent the most money on ads including the word.
Here's a breakdown of the political advertisers who spent the most money on ads including the word.
September 21, 2025 at 3:39 PM
There were ~8K pages that used the word bipartisan in their Facebook + Instagram political ads over the past 7 years.
Here's a breakdown of the political advertisers who spent the most money on ads including the word.
Here's a breakdown of the political advertisers who spent the most money on ads including the word.
Here's a look at the daily spending on Facebook + Instagram ads including the word "bipartisan".
That huge uptick in spending on Sept 22, 2020 is from ads that Meta ran on their own platforms promoting National Voter Registration Day (like this one)
That huge uptick in spending on Sept 22, 2020 is from ads that Meta ran on their own platforms promoting National Voter Registration Day (like this one)
September 21, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Here's a look at the daily spending on Facebook + Instagram ads including the word "bipartisan".
That huge uptick in spending on Sept 22, 2020 is from ads that Meta ran on their own platforms promoting National Voter Registration Day (like this one)
That huge uptick in spending on Sept 22, 2020 is from ads that Meta ran on their own platforms promoting National Voter Registration Day (like this one)
Over the past 7 years, 0.46% of all spending on Facebook + Instagram political ads nationwide included the word "bipartisan"
Works out to ~$25M in total ad spending
Seems notable that the average annual rate for this year is at a low point in the data
Works out to ~$25M in total ad spending
Seems notable that the average annual rate for this year is at a low point in the data
September 21, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Over the past 7 years, 0.46% of all spending on Facebook + Instagram political ads nationwide included the word "bipartisan"
Works out to ~$25M in total ad spending
Seems notable that the average annual rate for this year is at a low point in the data
Works out to ~$25M in total ad spending
Seems notable that the average annual rate for this year is at a low point in the data
The group Progressive Turnout Project spent $230K on Facebook + Instagram ads on Thurs (quite an uptick for the group)
Most of the spending was on ads related to Jimmy Kimmel being taken off the air
The ads link to this listbuilding page on their site (not an ActBlue page, like the ads indicate)
Most of the spending was on ads related to Jimmy Kimmel being taken off the air
The ads link to this listbuilding page on their site (not an ActBlue page, like the ads indicate)
September 20, 2025 at 11:08 PM
The group Progressive Turnout Project spent $230K on Facebook + Instagram ads on Thurs (quite an uptick for the group)
Most of the spending was on ads related to Jimmy Kimmel being taken off the air
The ads link to this listbuilding page on their site (not an ActBlue page, like the ads indicate)
Most of the spending was on ads related to Jimmy Kimmel being taken off the air
The ads link to this listbuilding page on their site (not an ActBlue page, like the ads indicate)