Andrew Arenge
@mrarenge.bsky.social
Penn Program on Opinion Research & Election Studies | NBC News Decision Desk | Usually analyzing digital political ads
Just published another update to this interactive dashboard tracking digital political ads running in all 435 CDs: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Approaching $35M that has been spent on Meta + Google ads in CDs this year
Top CDs are held by GOP (3 of which have had over $1M spent this year)
Approaching $35M that has been spent on Meta + Google ads in CDs this year
Top CDs are held by GOP (3 of which have had over $1M spent this year)
December 8, 2025 at 3:49 AM
Just published another update to this interactive dashboard tracking digital political ads running in all 435 CDs: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Approaching $35M that has been spent on Meta + Google ads in CDs this year
Top CDs are held by GOP (3 of which have had over $1M spent this year)
Approaching $35M that has been spent on Meta + Google ads in CDs this year
Top CDs are held by GOP (3 of which have had over $1M spent this year)
Over the past month, political digital advertisers have spent ~$100K on Facebook + Instagram ads mentioning the word "Epstein"
The Democratic Party - which has mainly run fundraising ads - is responsible for about half of that spending.
The Democratic Party - which has mainly run fundraising ads - is responsible for about half of that spending.
November 12, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Over the past month, political digital advertisers have spent ~$100K on Facebook + Instagram ads mentioning the word "Epstein"
The Democratic Party - which has mainly run fundraising ads - is responsible for about half of that spending.
The Democratic Party - which has mainly run fundraising ads - is responsible for about half of that spending.
After Zohran Mamdani's win for NYC mayor on Tuesday, some GOP politicians started running paid digital ads on Facebook/Instagram tying the entire Dem party to Mamdani
Here's a🧵of the ads I caught in the data
MI GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers is running this ad nationwide
Here's a🧵of the ads I caught in the data
MI GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers is running this ad nationwide
November 8, 2025 at 2:35 AM
After Zohran Mamdani's win for NYC mayor on Tuesday, some GOP politicians started running paid digital ads on Facebook/Instagram tying the entire Dem party to Mamdani
Here's a🧵of the ads I caught in the data
MI GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers is running this ad nationwide
Here's a🧵of the ads I caught in the data
MI GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers is running this ad nationwide
We now have the Meta political ad daily spending data through the day before the election (which is usually a high mark)
Advertisers spent ~$3.1M on Facebook + Instagram ads on Nov 3 (which is only ~$50K more than the high point from '21)
See the data for all years: rpubs.com/aarenge/face...
Advertisers spent ~$3.1M on Facebook + Instagram ads on Nov 3 (which is only ~$50K more than the high point from '21)
See the data for all years: rpubs.com/aarenge/face...
November 6, 2025 at 2:47 PM
We now have the Meta political ad daily spending data through the day before the election (which is usually a high mark)
Advertisers spent ~$3.1M on Facebook + Instagram ads on Nov 3 (which is only ~$50K more than the high point from '21)
See the data for all years: rpubs.com/aarenge/face...
Advertisers spent ~$3.1M on Facebook + Instagram ads on Nov 3 (which is only ~$50K more than the high point from '21)
See the data for all years: rpubs.com/aarenge/face...
Here's the Meta spending data for the largest digital political advertisers in New Jersey + Virginia for the last 7 days that we have the data (represents Friday, Oct 24 - Thursday, Oct 30).
The national Republican Party spent far more than any other advertiser in both states
The national Republican Party spent far more than any other advertiser in both states
November 2, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Here's the Meta spending data for the largest digital political advertisers in New Jersey + Virginia for the last 7 days that we have the data (represents Friday, Oct 24 - Thursday, Oct 30).
The national Republican Party spent far more than any other advertiser in both states
The national Republican Party spent far more than any other advertiser in both states
Slightly different way of visualizing the same data - taking the daily estimates of spending on Meta ads linking to ActBlue & dividing by spending on all Meta political ads
As a percent of overall spending, spending on ActBlue ads in 2025 is essentially on par with 2024 spending
As a percent of overall spending, spending on ActBlue ads in 2025 is essentially on par with 2024 spending
October 2, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Slightly different way of visualizing the same data - taking the daily estimates of spending on Meta ads linking to ActBlue & dividing by spending on all Meta political ads
As a percent of overall spending, spending on ActBlue ads in 2025 is essentially on par with 2024 spending
As a percent of overall spending, spending on ActBlue ads in 2025 is essentially on par with 2024 spending
As we finished out Q3 & hit fundraising deadline, saw a huge uptick in the amount of money spent on Facebook/Instagram digital ads linking out to ActBlue
Surpassed over $500K spent on these ads yesterday
Saw huge difference between ads linking to ActBlue vs WinRed
Surpassed over $500K spent on these ads yesterday
Saw huge difference between ads linking to ActBlue vs WinRed
October 2, 2025 at 1:23 AM
As we finished out Q3 & hit fundraising deadline, saw a huge uptick in the amount of money spent on Facebook/Instagram digital ads linking out to ActBlue
Surpassed over $500K spent on these ads yesterday
Saw huge difference between ads linking to ActBlue vs WinRed
Surpassed over $500K spent on these ads yesterday
Saw huge difference between ads linking to ActBlue vs WinRed
Pete Buttigieg saw quite an uptick in spending on fundraising ads running on Facebook + Instagram recently
He was the 9th largest political advertiser running Meta ads last Thurs (the most recent daily spending data available)
Has spent $288K on these digital ads so far this year
He was the 9th largest political advertiser running Meta ads last Thurs (the most recent daily spending data available)
Has spent $288K on these digital ads so far this year
September 28, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Pete Buttigieg saw quite an uptick in spending on fundraising ads running on Facebook + Instagram recently
He was the 9th largest political advertiser running Meta ads last Thurs (the most recent daily spending data available)
Has spent $288K on these digital ads so far this year
He was the 9th largest political advertiser running Meta ads last Thurs (the most recent daily spending data available)
Has spent $288K on these digital ads so far this year
Seeing a pretty massive mismatch in spending on Google + Facebook/Instagram digital political ads in the Virginia Governor race right now.
The data from both platforms indicates that Spanberger outspent Earle-Sears by ~4x over the past 30 days.
The data from both platforms indicates that Spanberger outspent Earle-Sears by ~4x over the past 30 days.
September 23, 2025 at 12:00 AM
Seeing a pretty massive mismatch in spending on Google + Facebook/Instagram digital political ads in the Virginia Governor race right now.
The data from both platforms indicates that Spanberger outspent Earle-Sears by ~4x over the past 30 days.
The data from both platforms indicates that Spanberger outspent Earle-Sears by ~4x over the past 30 days.
Over the past 7 years, 0.46% of all spending on Facebook + Instagram political ads nationwide included the word "bipartisan"
Works out to ~$25M in total ad spending
Seems notable that the average annual rate for this year is at a low point in the data
Works out to ~$25M in total ad spending
Seems notable that the average annual rate for this year is at a low point in the data
September 21, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Over the past 7 years, 0.46% of all spending on Facebook + Instagram political ads nationwide included the word "bipartisan"
Works out to ~$25M in total ad spending
Seems notable that the average annual rate for this year is at a low point in the data
Works out to ~$25M in total ad spending
Seems notable that the average annual rate for this year is at a low point in the data
The group Progressive Turnout Project spent $230K on Facebook + Instagram ads on Thurs (quite an uptick for the group)
Most of the spending was on ads related to Jimmy Kimmel being taken off the air
The ads link to this listbuilding page on their site (not an ActBlue page, like the ads indicate)
Most of the spending was on ads related to Jimmy Kimmel being taken off the air
The ads link to this listbuilding page on their site (not an ActBlue page, like the ads indicate)
September 20, 2025 at 11:08 PM
The group Progressive Turnout Project spent $230K on Facebook + Instagram ads on Thurs (quite an uptick for the group)
Most of the spending was on ads related to Jimmy Kimmel being taken off the air
The ads link to this listbuilding page on their site (not an ActBlue page, like the ads indicate)
Most of the spending was on ads related to Jimmy Kimmel being taken off the air
The ads link to this listbuilding page on their site (not an ActBlue page, like the ads indicate)
The Facebook + Instagram digital political ad data indicates that just over $97M has been spent over the past 7 years on digital ads mentioning the word "gun"
Think...
- gun safety
- gun lobby
- gun rights
- gun control
- gun owner
Here's the graph outlining daily spending
Think...
- gun safety
- gun lobby
- gun rights
- gun control
- gun owner
Here's the graph outlining daily spending
September 18, 2025 at 5:53 PM
The Facebook + Instagram digital political ad data indicates that just over $97M has been spent over the past 7 years on digital ads mentioning the word "gun"
Think...
- gun safety
- gun lobby
- gun rights
- gun control
- gun owner
Here's the graph outlining daily spending
Think...
- gun safety
- gun lobby
- gun rights
- gun control
- gun owner
Here's the graph outlining daily spending
Have seen a big drop off in spending on digital ads running in NRCC targeted congressional districts (Dem held CDs they're hoping to flip in 2026)
Toward end of Aug, advertisers collectively spent ~$40K per day across the 26 targeted districts.
Now they're spending ~$2K a day
Toward end of Aug, advertisers collectively spent ~$40K per day across the 26 targeted districts.
Now they're spending ~$2K a day
September 16, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Have seen a big drop off in spending on digital ads running in NRCC targeted congressional districts (Dem held CDs they're hoping to flip in 2026)
Toward end of Aug, advertisers collectively spent ~$40K per day across the 26 targeted districts.
Now they're spending ~$2K a day
Toward end of Aug, advertisers collectively spent ~$40K per day across the 26 targeted districts.
Now they're spending ~$2K a day
With today's update, I'm now estimating that political advertisers have spent over $25M on Facebook, Instagram + Google digital ads targeted at specific CDs since the beginning of the year.
Only 5 advertisers have spent over $1M so far
aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Only 5 advertisers have spent over $1M so far
aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
September 8, 2025 at 7:09 PM
With today's update, I'm now estimating that political advertisers have spent over $25M on Facebook, Instagram + Google digital ads targeted at specific CDs since the beginning of the year.
Only 5 advertisers have spent over $1M so far
aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Only 5 advertisers have spent over $1M so far
aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Updated the interactive dashboard tracking geotargeted political ad spending on digital ads running in congressional districts.
Closing in on ~$25M in total spending this year
Can see who's targeting your CD here: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Closing in on ~$25M in total spending this year
Can see who's targeting your CD here: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
September 7, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Updated the interactive dashboard tracking geotargeted political ad spending on digital ads running in congressional districts.
Closing in on ~$25M in total spending this year
Can see who's targeting your CD here: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Closing in on ~$25M in total spending this year
Can see who's targeting your CD here: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
The American Academy of Pediatrics has seen a huge uptick in their digital political advertising on Facebook + Instagram since Aug 28 (when the CDC director was fired)
They didn't advertise at all during the Biden years and just a tiny bit during Trump's first term.
They didn't advertise at all during the Biden years and just a tiny bit during Trump's first term.
September 7, 2025 at 1:52 AM
The American Academy of Pediatrics has seen a huge uptick in their digital political advertising on Facebook + Instagram since Aug 28 (when the CDC director was fired)
They didn't advertise at all during the Biden years and just a tiny bit during Trump's first term.
They didn't advertise at all during the Biden years and just a tiny bit during Trump's first term.
Gavin Newsom just launched a bunch of new digital ads on Google advocating that folks vote for Proposition 50, approving new congressional district maps in CA.
Here's a🧵of all of the new ads
"Following the dictators playbook, Donald Trump has unleashed a blitzkrieg"
Here's a🧵of all of the new ads
"Following the dictators playbook, Donald Trump has unleashed a blitzkrieg"
September 2, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Gavin Newsom just launched a bunch of new digital ads on Google advocating that folks vote for Proposition 50, approving new congressional district maps in CA.
Here's a🧵of all of the new ads
"Following the dictators playbook, Donald Trump has unleashed a blitzkrieg"
Here's a🧵of all of the new ads
"Following the dictators playbook, Donald Trump has unleashed a blitzkrieg"
Let's dig into the CD with the most digital spending over the past week:
IA-01
Repped by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Won district by 0.19 points in 2024
Political advertisers spent ~$83K over past week on digital ads, bringing total spent in IA-01 this year to ~$749K
IA-01
Repped by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Won district by 0.19 points in 2024
Political advertisers spent ~$83K over past week on digital ads, bringing total spent in IA-01 this year to ~$749K
August 31, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Let's dig into the CD with the most digital spending over the past week:
IA-01
Repped by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Won district by 0.19 points in 2024
Political advertisers spent ~$83K over past week on digital ads, bringing total spent in IA-01 this year to ~$749K
IA-01
Repped by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Won district by 0.19 points in 2024
Political advertisers spent ~$83K over past week on digital ads, bringing total spent in IA-01 this year to ~$749K
For Labor Day weekend, the DCCC is running these digital ads in the Congressional Districts they're hoping to flip in 2026.
The ads argues Republicans are making the price of Labor Day cookouts more expensive.
The ads are running on Instagram + Google, targeted at men under 45
The ads argues Republicans are making the price of Labor Day cookouts more expensive.
The ads are running on Instagram + Google, targeted at men under 45
August 30, 2025 at 3:17 PM
For Labor Day weekend, the DCCC is running these digital ads in the Congressional Districts they're hoping to flip in 2026.
The ads argues Republicans are making the price of Labor Day cookouts more expensive.
The ads are running on Instagram + Google, targeted at men under 45
The ads argues Republicans are making the price of Labor Day cookouts more expensive.
The ads are running on Instagram + Google, targeted at men under 45
NEW
Added targeted Google ad spending to the interactive dashboard tracking digital political ad spending in every Congressional District: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Advertisers have spent ~$23M on Meta + Google ads in specific CDs since the beginning of the year
Added targeted Google ad spending to the interactive dashboard tracking digital political ad spending in every Congressional District: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Advertisers have spent ~$23M on Meta + Google ads in specific CDs since the beginning of the year
August 28, 2025 at 10:50 PM
NEW
Added targeted Google ad spending to the interactive dashboard tracking digital political ad spending in every Congressional District: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Advertisers have spent ~$23M on Meta + Google ads in specific CDs since the beginning of the year
Added targeted Google ad spending to the interactive dashboard tracking digital political ad spending in every Congressional District: aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Advertisers have spent ~$23M on Meta + Google ads in specific CDs since the beginning of the year
On Monday, when Sherrod Brown announced he was running for the Ohio Senate again, his campaign spent over $80K on Facebook + Instagram ads
This is over double the amount Brown has spent on Meta ads on single day over the last 6 years (including during his tough re-election fight in 2024)
This is over double the amount Brown has spent on Meta ads on single day over the last 6 years (including during his tough re-election fight in 2024)
August 21, 2025 at 6:07 AM
On Monday, when Sherrod Brown announced he was running for the Ohio Senate again, his campaign spent over $80K on Facebook + Instagram ads
This is over double the amount Brown has spent on Meta ads on single day over the last 6 years (including during his tough re-election fight in 2024)
This is over double the amount Brown has spent on Meta ads on single day over the last 6 years (including during his tough re-election fight in 2024)
Latest data from Meta (from Friday) shows an uptick in spending by Gavin Newsom, pegged to fundraising for the redistricting fight
Other then one day during National Guard fight from June, the $125K+ he spent on Thurs + Fri is the most He's spent on these ads in the 6 years I've tracked the data
Other then one day during National Guard fight from June, the $125K+ he spent on Thurs + Fri is the most He's spent on these ads in the 6 years I've tracked the data
August 18, 2025 at 1:53 AM
Latest data from Meta (from Friday) shows an uptick in spending by Gavin Newsom, pegged to fundraising for the redistricting fight
Other then one day during National Guard fight from June, the $125K+ he spent on Thurs + Fri is the most He's spent on these ads in the 6 years I've tracked the data
Other then one day during National Guard fight from June, the $125K+ he spent on Thurs + Fri is the most He's spent on these ads in the 6 years I've tracked the data
If you were running for Governor in California in this moment, where would you be targeting digital ads?
Earlier today, Stephen Cloobeck just started running versions of this ad on YouTube targeted at 45 zip codes in.... Texas
See for yourself: adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/A...
Earlier today, Stephen Cloobeck just started running versions of this ad on YouTube targeted at 45 zip codes in.... Texas
See for yourself: adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/A...
August 14, 2025 at 11:55 PM
If you were running for Governor in California in this moment, where would you be targeting digital ads?
Earlier today, Stephen Cloobeck just started running versions of this ad on YouTube targeted at 45 zip codes in.... Texas
See for yourself: adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/A...
Earlier today, Stephen Cloobeck just started running versions of this ad on YouTube targeted at 45 zip codes in.... Texas
See for yourself: adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/A...
While $1.2M+ has been spent on Meta digital ads launched in the past month about Medicaid, might surprise some to learn that over half this spending has been by American Prosperity Alliance, a GOP group targeting ads in key states + CDs
August 10, 2025 at 10:36 PM
While $1.2M+ has been spent on Meta digital ads launched in the past month about Medicaid, might surprise some to learn that over half this spending has been by American Prosperity Alliance, a GOP group targeting ads in key states + CDs
Finally updated dashboard tracking CD ad targeting on Meta (they've been inconsistent in releasing data): aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Advertisers spent ~$11.2M on Meta ads in CDs so far this year
American Prosperity Alliance catapulted onto top list after spending starts mid-July
Advertisers spent ~$11.2M on Meta ads in CDs so far this year
American Prosperity Alliance catapulted onto top list after spending starts mid-July
August 2, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Finally updated dashboard tracking CD ad targeting on Meta (they've been inconsistent in releasing data): aarenge.shinyapps.io/2026_meta_CD...
Advertisers spent ~$11.2M on Meta ads in CDs so far this year
American Prosperity Alliance catapulted onto top list after spending starts mid-July
Advertisers spent ~$11.2M on Meta ads in CDs so far this year
American Prosperity Alliance catapulted onto top list after spending starts mid-July