Morpho Advisory
@morphoadvisory.bsky.social
Creator of time-invariant scaling trading system.
https://morpho.substack.com/
Portfolio Mgmt * Macro-Quant Research * Unique insight into Market & Risk morphology * Uncorrelated alpha * Uncorrelated investment strategies * Not advice
https://morpho.substack.com/
Portfolio Mgmt * Macro-Quant Research * Unique insight into Market & Risk morphology * Uncorrelated alpha * Uncorrelated investment strategies * Not advice
People saw #Bitcoin as a currency, but that didn't happen, so then it became a store of value via #hodling
I think #BTC is just another vehicle for speculation & really only serves in terms of usefulness as a barometer for risk appetite.
It's giving another early warning signal
I think #BTC is just another vehicle for speculation & really only serves in terms of usefulness as a barometer for risk appetite.
It's giving another early warning signal
November 4, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Another well-timed signal by our proprietary trading algorithm.
The Saylor Cupidity Index is down 26% since we posted our warning.
The Saylor Cupidity Index is down 26% since we posted our warning.
November 4, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Another well-timed signal by our proprietary trading algorithm.
The Saylor Cupidity Index is down 26% since we posted our warning.
The Saylor Cupidity Index is down 26% since we posted our warning.
Here's an update on the Saylor Cupidity Index, which measures widespread speculative willingness by any & all means possible.
The recent sharp move lower does not bode well, historically speaking, for broarder market performance.
The recent sharp move lower does not bode well, historically speaking, for broarder market performance.
November 4, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Here's an update on the Saylor Cupidity Index, which measures widespread speculative willingness by any & all means possible.
The recent sharp move lower does not bode well, historically speaking, for broarder market performance.
The recent sharp move lower does not bode well, historically speaking, for broarder market performance.
Seems about right...
PS. Usually forewarns of a sideways decade
PS. Usually forewarns of a sideways decade
October 23, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Seems about right...
PS. Usually forewarns of a sideways decade
PS. Usually forewarns of a sideways decade
October 14, 2025 at 10:35 PM
The macroeconomic environment has been challenging, which is why you need multiple tools to navigate cycles.
#oil #commodities #crude #oott
#oil #commodities #crude #oott
October 14, 2025 at 10:32 PM
The macroeconomic environment has been challenging, which is why you need multiple tools to navigate cycles.
#oil #commodities #crude #oott
#oil #commodities #crude #oott
October 14, 2025 at 8:53 PM
We develop superior solutions.
One unique insight is an algorithm based upon human behavior, encoding the essence of humans in relationship to money.
Examples follow, showing (at one extreme) a 10-second price chart for Copper futures & (at the other extreme) monthly US Industrial Production data:
One unique insight is an algorithm based upon human behavior, encoding the essence of humans in relationship to money.
Examples follow, showing (at one extreme) a 10-second price chart for Copper futures & (at the other extreme) monthly US Industrial Production data:
October 7, 2025 at 5:21 AM
We develop superior solutions.
One unique insight is an algorithm based upon human behavior, encoding the essence of humans in relationship to money.
Examples follow, showing (at one extreme) a 10-second price chart for Copper futures & (at the other extreme) monthly US Industrial Production data:
One unique insight is an algorithm based upon human behavior, encoding the essence of humans in relationship to money.
Examples follow, showing (at one extreme) a 10-second price chart for Copper futures & (at the other extreme) monthly US Industrial Production data:
Finally, you review this relationship to see if the valuation methodology is valid and produces an historically accurate measure of stock market overvaluation relative to the economic cash flows (i.e. a bubble) and what usually happens to realign the relationship - typically a sideways decade
October 7, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Finally, you review this relationship to see if the valuation methodology is valid and produces an historically accurate measure of stock market overvaluation relative to the economic cash flows (i.e. a bubble) and what usually happens to realign the relationship - typically a sideways decade
Next, you calculate the difference in their growth rates and align that with the stock market's historical price...
October 7, 2025 at 2:47 AM
Next, you calculate the difference in their growth rates and align that with the stock market's historical price...
First, you assess the present value of the cash flows of the economy and then you compare it to the present value of the stock market...
October 7, 2025 at 2:45 AM
First, you assess the present value of the cash flows of the economy and then you compare it to the present value of the stock market...
It's eclipse season. Are you letting the shadow of media narrative obscure your view of reality? Check out my substack, but only if you're curious.
September 18, 2025 at 5:03 AM
It's eclipse season. Are you letting the shadow of media narrative obscure your view of reality? Check out my substack, but only if you're curious.
Gee, I wonder ....
September 17, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Gee, I wonder ....
I wonder if weaker credit conditions are a sign of anything, you know, like last time ....
September 17, 2025 at 7:44 PM
I wonder if weaker credit conditions are a sign of anything, you know, like last time ....
The Saylor Cupidity Index is flashing warnings of irrational exuberance and future regret
August 29, 2025 at 7:26 AM
The Saylor Cupidity Index is flashing warnings of irrational exuberance and future regret
My hypothesis is that stock market growth should reflect economic growth (more or less) [Mr Buffett thinks the same hence the ratio bearing his name]. I built a valuation model that uses proper valuation methodology.
My initial 'earnings' input for Q1 1962 makes the results fit the $SPX price scale.
My initial 'earnings' input for Q1 1962 makes the results fit the $SPX price scale.
August 15, 2025 at 9:05 PM
My hypothesis is that stock market growth should reflect economic growth (more or less) [Mr Buffett thinks the same hence the ratio bearing his name]. I built a valuation model that uses proper valuation methodology.
My initial 'earnings' input for Q1 1962 makes the results fit the $SPX price scale.
My initial 'earnings' input for Q1 1962 makes the results fit the $SPX price scale.
If you haven't developed your own process of researching economic information & have just relied on federal institutions & financial media, it's probably too late for you.
The old data was flawed, but greater obfiscation has now arrived.
Narrative has officially displaced data.
We were ready ....
The old data was flawed, but greater obfiscation has now arrived.
Narrative has officially displaced data.
We were ready ....
August 14, 2025 at 8:22 AM
If you haven't developed your own process of researching economic information & have just relied on federal institutions & financial media, it's probably too late for you.
The old data was flawed, but greater obfiscation has now arrived.
Narrative has officially displaced data.
We were ready ....
The old data was flawed, but greater obfiscation has now arrived.
Narrative has officially displaced data.
We were ready ....
Some similarities ...
August 11, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Some similarities ...
.. And don't forget house price growth, which has turned negative in recent months ...
August 10, 2025 at 10:35 PM
.. And don't forget house price growth, which has turned negative in recent months ...
Ladies & Gentlemen, I give you the Saylor Cupidity Index, a measure of market sentiment and willingness to speculate as revealed by schemer activity leveraging cupidity via their latest get-rich-quick idea that provides a thrilling ride but ultimately comes to nothing (if not less)
July 27, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Ladies & Gentlemen, I give you the Saylor Cupidity Index, a measure of market sentiment and willingness to speculate as revealed by schemer activity leveraging cupidity via their latest get-rich-quick idea that provides a thrilling ride but ultimately comes to nothing (if not less)