Morpho Advisory
@morphoadvisory.bsky.social
Creator of time-invariant scaling trading system.
https://morpho.substack.com/
Portfolio Mgmt * Macro-Quant Research * Unique insight into Market & Risk morphology * Uncorrelated alpha * Uncorrelated investment strategies * Not advice
https://morpho.substack.com/
Portfolio Mgmt * Macro-Quant Research * Unique insight into Market & Risk morphology * Uncorrelated alpha * Uncorrelated investment strategies * Not advice
Watch for survivorship bias in BlackRock funds (and others) future return summaries
November 9, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Watch for survivorship bias in BlackRock funds (and others) future return summaries
Yes, this trend seems to have fallen out of fashion, especially when there's leverage applied
bsky.app/profile/morp...
bsky.app/profile/morp...
Here's an update on the Saylor Cupidity Index, which measures widespread speculative willingness by any & all means possible.
The recent sharp move lower does not bode well, historically speaking, for broarder market performance.
The recent sharp move lower does not bode well, historically speaking, for broarder market performance.
November 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Yes, this trend seems to have fallen out of fashion, especially when there's leverage applied
bsky.app/profile/morp...
bsky.app/profile/morp...
I noted the behavior of Bitcoin yesterday, over both the long-term and short-term
bsky.app/profile/morp...
bsky.app/profile/morp...
November 5, 2025 at 6:27 PM
I noted the behavior of Bitcoin yesterday, over both the long-term and short-term
bsky.app/profile/morp...
bsky.app/profile/morp...
Another well-timed signal by our proprietary trading algorithm.
The Saylor Cupidity Index is down 26% since we posted our warning.
The Saylor Cupidity Index is down 26% since we posted our warning.
November 4, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Another well-timed signal by our proprietary trading algorithm.
The Saylor Cupidity Index is down 26% since we posted our warning.
The Saylor Cupidity Index is down 26% since we posted our warning.
Here's an update on the Saylor Cupidity Index, which measures widespread speculative willingness by any & all means possible.
The recent sharp move lower does not bode well, historically speaking, for broarder market performance.
The recent sharp move lower does not bode well, historically speaking, for broarder market performance.
November 4, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Here's an update on the Saylor Cupidity Index, which measures widespread speculative willingness by any & all means possible.
The recent sharp move lower does not bode well, historically speaking, for broarder market performance.
The recent sharp move lower does not bode well, historically speaking, for broarder market performance.
Add this to the central banker's toolkit for when there's blood in street
November 2, 2025 at 7:08 AM
Add this to the central banker's toolkit for when there's blood in street
This is the classic thinking at the end of every bubble, "The cost of not being in the race outweighs all other costs". It's like the famous last words of every exuberant period of excess.
October 30, 2025 at 7:36 PM
This is the classic thinking at the end of every bubble, "The cost of not being in the race outweighs all other costs". It's like the famous last words of every exuberant period of excess.
Seems about right...
PS. Usually forewarns of a sideways decade
PS. Usually forewarns of a sideways decade
October 23, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Seems about right...
PS. Usually forewarns of a sideways decade
PS. Usually forewarns of a sideways decade
Our algorithm worked well once again. It informed us sufficiently well in advance, allowing time to accumulate a long position between 56-58, and now the price has climbed to 62
#oott #oil #crude $cl #crudelight #quant #algo #lightcrude #futures #regimeswitching #markovchain #markovprocess #trading
#oott #oil #crude $cl #crudelight #quant #algo #lightcrude #futures #regimeswitching #markovchain #markovprocess #trading
October 23, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Our algorithm worked well once again. It informed us sufficiently well in advance, allowing time to accumulate a long position between 56-58, and now the price has climbed to 62
#oott #oil #crude $cl #crudelight #quant #algo #lightcrude #futures #regimeswitching #markovchain #markovprocess #trading
#oott #oil #crude $cl #crudelight #quant #algo #lightcrude #futures #regimeswitching #markovchain #markovprocess #trading
October 14, 2025 at 10:35 PM
The macroeconomic environment has been challenging, which is why you need multiple tools to navigate cycles.
#oil #commodities #crude #oott
#oil #commodities #crude #oott
October 14, 2025 at 10:32 PM
The macroeconomic environment has been challenging, which is why you need multiple tools to navigate cycles.
#oil #commodities #crude #oott
#oil #commodities #crude #oott
October 14, 2025 at 8:53 PM
All that "bad" immigration that socially uncomfortable has a terrible side effect of being good for the economy
October 7, 2025 at 7:27 PM
All that "bad" immigration that socially uncomfortable has a terrible side effect of being good for the economy
Finally, you review this relationship to see if the valuation methodology is valid and produces an historically accurate measure of stock market overvaluation relative to the economic cash flows (i.e. a bubble) and what usually happens to realign the relationship - typically a sideways decade
October 7, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Finally, you review this relationship to see if the valuation methodology is valid and produces an historically accurate measure of stock market overvaluation relative to the economic cash flows (i.e. a bubble) and what usually happens to realign the relationship - typically a sideways decade
Next, you calculate the difference in their growth rates and align that with the stock market's historical price...
October 7, 2025 at 2:47 AM
Next, you calculate the difference in their growth rates and align that with the stock market's historical price...
First, you assess the present value of the cash flows of the economy and then you compare it to the present value of the stock market...
October 7, 2025 at 2:45 AM
First, you assess the present value of the cash flows of the economy and then you compare it to the present value of the stock market...
It's only "private" payrolls. I'm sure the government will carry the rest of the labor market 🙄 (don't mention the shutdown)
bsky.app/profile/morp...
bsky.app/profile/morp...
October 1, 2025 at 4:46 PM
It's only "private" payrolls. I'm sure the government will carry the rest of the labor market 🙄 (don't mention the shutdown)
bsky.app/profile/morp...
bsky.app/profile/morp...
It's eclipse season. Are you letting the shadow of media narrative obscure your view of reality? Check out my substack, but only if you're curious.
September 18, 2025 at 5:03 AM
It's eclipse season. Are you letting the shadow of media narrative obscure your view of reality? Check out my substack, but only if you're curious.
Gee, I wonder ....
September 17, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Gee, I wonder ....
I wonder if weaker credit conditions are a sign of anything, you know, like last time ....
September 17, 2025 at 7:44 PM
I wonder if weaker credit conditions are a sign of anything, you know, like last time ....