Thank you! Bsky thread to the paper: bsky.app/profile/mori...

We demonstrate that there is a compositional effect: using survey data, we show that leavers were 18 pp less likely to support the incumbent than stayers. Thus, in constituencies with more out-migration, the incumbent vote share increased.

Using constituency-level electoral data, we show that in East German constituencies with more out-migration between 1990–1994, the incumbent vote share increased. What explains this? Do voters reward the incumbent for high out-migration (sparked by increasing unemployment)? Unlikely.

To illustrate the formal results, we study the case of East Germany after reunification, when more than 9% of East Germans moved to former West Germany. How did this exodus affect electoral support for the incumbent coalition government in the 1994 federal election across East Germany?

These two types of effects are conceptually similar but different to natural (in)direct effects in mediation analysis. We discuss how to identify, estimate, and bound the compositional effect from in- and out-migration.

We use Rubin's potential outcomes framework to formally define compositional effects and to decompose the total causal effect of internal migration into exposure effects and compositional effects.

When studying how internal migration affects changes in district-level electoral outcomes, it is important to separate the compositional effect (heterogeneity in political behavior between movers and stayers) from the exposure effect (change in political behavior due to exposure to migration).

paper-picnic.com updated at 3:44 AM (github.com/sumtxt/picni...) and dispatched email but UCL mailman system seemed to have delayed outbound emails until 11 AM. No idea why. 🫠

Short summary in the working paper bsky thread: bsky.app/profile/mori...

Und wohin geht dann die Erststimme?

Das Wählerverzeichnis ist in der Verantwortung des Kreiswahlleiters und nicht des Bundeswahlleiters. Es gibt also nicht 1 WZ in D. Wählen (persönlich und per Brief) kann man daher auch nur im jeweiligen Wahlkreis weil nur dort die Registrierung der Stimmenabgabe im WZ möglich ist.

A few months actually. Launch date was August 23, 2024.

@dezim-institut.de @uclspp.bsky.social @uclpolicylab.bsky.social @ethzurich.bsky.social

Working paper: osf.io/preprints/so... Research brief: immigrationlab.org/project/prep...

6/ For policymakers preparing for future refugee arrivals, this research highlights the need to balance urgency, capacity, & effectiveness in integration programming. Scaling existing, proven programs may be more effective than building large-scale initiatives from scratch.

5/ The limited number of classroom hours (320 vs. 600 hours), a non-standardized curriculum, and a lack of certification might explain the differences between the two programs.