We demonstrate that there is a compositional effect: using survey data, we show that leavers were 18 pp less likely to support the incumbent than stayers. Thus, in constituencies with more out-migration, the incumbent vote share increased.

Using constituency-level electoral data, we show that in East German constituencies with more out-migration between 1990–1994, the incumbent vote share increased. What explains this? Do voters reward the incumbent for high out-migration (sparked by increasing unemployment)? Unlikely.

To illustrate the formal results, we study the case of East Germany after reunification, when more than 9% of East Germans moved to former West Germany. How did this exodus affect electoral support for the incumbent coalition government in the 1994 federal election across East Germany?

These two types of effects are conceptually similar but different to natural (in)direct effects in mediation analysis. We discuss how to identify, estimate, and bound the compositional effect from in- and out-migration.

When studying how internal migration affects changes in district-level electoral outcomes, it is important to separate the compositional effect (heterogeneity in political behavior between movers and stayers) from the exposure effect (change in political behavior due to exposure to migration).

🚨New working paper: Compositional Effects, Internal Migration and Electoral Outcomes

osf.io/preprints/so...

#polisciresearch

5/ The limited number of classroom hours (320 vs. 600 hours), a non-standardized curriculum, and a lack of certification might explain the differences between the two programs.

4/ But the pre-existing program did help refugees to secure jobs! Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that participants were 4.4 percentage points more likely to be employed after just 1 year of starting the course, rising to 12 p.p. after 18 months.

3/ Using a regression discontinuity design, we compare refugees who arrived in Germany before and after the eligibility cutoff for the ad hoc program, observing refugee employment outcomes over nearly 2 years. We find that the ad hoc program had no impact on employment.

1/ Over 1 million refugees arrived in Germany in 2015. When established language training programs ("Integrationskurse") reached capacity, the Federal Employment Agency swiftly launched a new ad hoc program ("Einstiegskurse zur Deutschförderung") to enroll more.

🚨New paper: Does ad hoc language training improve the economic integration of refugees? Evidence from Germany’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis 🚨

w/ Ehsan Vallizadeh, @niklas-harder.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner, Jens Hainmueller

doi.org/10.1093/jrss...

🚨 Picnic Notifications 📨: After much popular demand, you can now subscribe to weekly email notifications from paper-picnic.com. All new content from 30+ political science journals in 1 no-fluff email on Fridays.

🚨New Tool: paper-picnic.com The latest published political science research (and research in adjacent fields) every Friday. No alert chaos, no registration, no clutter. Powered by @crossref.bsky.social

4/ Comparing refugees who were matched with similar refugees who registered but were not matched with a host due to host unavailability, we find that refugees who receive and accept the offer for accommodation are much better integrated.

🚨New paper: The Impact of Private Hosting on the Integration of Ukrainian Refugees 🚨

w/ Mathis Herpell, Niklas Harder, Alexandra Orlova, Dominik Hangartner, Jens Hainmueller

osf.io/preprints/so...

#polisciresearch #econtwitter