The narrative that LNG is replacing coal is untrue.

-More LNG is being produced than needed to replace all global coal
-More LNG is being produced than the entire 1.5-aligned carbon budget of gas

Simply put, LNG is a bad bet for both the Canadian economy, and the climate.

8/8

And the elephant in the room. LNG is not a "transition fuel".
This lens uses outdated assumptions regarding methane leakage. On a lifecycle basis, LNG is marginally less emissive than coal. LNG is as much as 33% higher emitting than coal.

7/8

European Demand:

European oversupply is likely to drive down prices even more. Over the last two years, the EU rapidly increased its imports, driving down emerging market demand.

The EU now has credible plans to ramp down its gas use substantially over the next decade.

6/8

Asian Demand:
Canada's market for LNG, Asia, has seen softened demand projections.

-East Asia has rapidly grown its nuclear capacity,
-China is focused on domestic production,
-High prices have reduced import capacity for South and Southeast Asia

5/8

Adding to that, our infrastructure costs are well above industry standard, with Woodfibre in particular comind in at about 2.5x global average.

Adding to that, midstream projects are not meeting budgets, with Coastal GasLink experiencing a 134% cost increase.

4/8

To start with some context, Canadian LNG is expensive to produce. McKinsey projects the breakeven needed to maintain viability is ~$9.45CAD.

No Canadian project is set to meet that benchmark.

3/8

LNG financing has grown rapidly over the last decade. RBC's LNG financing, in 2023, was over two and a half times that of its 2016 figure.

Canadian projects being financed, however, were proposed in an energy environment that no longer exists. Our new report explores that.

2/8

It is pretty comfortable I can't lie