Mike Honey
@mikehoney.bsky.social
Data Visualisation and Data Integration specialist - Melbourne, Australia
https://linktr.ee/mike_honey_
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https://linktr.ee/mike_honey_
Support my projects by sponsoring me on Github: https://github.com/sponsors/Mike-Honey
Here’s the table of recent sample volumes (excluding Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US).
The flow of samples from most countries has stalled in recent weeks.
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The flow of samples from most countries has stalled in recent weeks.
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November 9, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Here’s the table of recent sample volumes (excluding Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US).
The flow of samples from most countries has stalled in recent weeks.
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The flow of samples from most countries has stalled in recent weeks.
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Here are the leading countries reporting the XFG.* "Stratus" variant.
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November 9, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Here are the leading countries reporting the XFG.* "Stratus" variant.
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Here are the leading countries reporting the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant.
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November 9, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Here are the leading countries reporting the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant.
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Here are the leading European countries reporting NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus".
The recent rebound in this variant is being reported from multiple countries, led by Germany.
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The recent rebound in this variant is being reported from multiple countries, led by Germany.
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November 9, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Here are the leading European countries reporting NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus".
The recent rebound in this variant is being reported from multiple countries, led by Germany.
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The recent rebound in this variant is being reported from multiple countries, led by Germany.
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Here are the leading European countries reporting XFG.* "Stratus".
Ireland, Italy and the Netherlands are reporting the highest recent frequencies, at 90-100%.
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Ireland, Italy and the Netherlands are reporting the highest recent frequencies, at 90-100%.
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November 9, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Here are the leading European countries reporting XFG.* "Stratus".
Ireland, Italy and the Netherlands are reporting the highest recent frequencies, at 90-100%.
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Ireland, Italy and the Netherlands are reporting the highest recent frequencies, at 90-100%.
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Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" finished at 78%, while NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" finished at 20%.
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November 9, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" finished at 78%, while NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" finished at 20%.
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In Australia it's almost all been Influenza subtype A recently. The "late tail" of our current wave seems dominated by children & teenagers.
www.health.gov.au/resources/pu...
www.health.gov.au/resources/pu...
November 9, 2025 at 1:26 AM
In Australia it's almost all been Influenza subtype A recently. The "late tail" of our current wave seems dominated by children & teenagers.
www.health.gov.au/resources/pu...
www.health.gov.au/resources/pu...
For XFG.10.4 + S:A435S global growth (from Sep onwards) is at 3.4% per day (24% per week). Note I showed this from Aug onwards previously.
Recent samples were all from new locations: Schleswig-Holstein, Centre-Val de Loire, Northern Ireland.
Recent samples were all from new locations: Schleswig-Holstein, Centre-Val de Loire, Northern Ireland.
November 9, 2025 at 1:09 AM
For XFG.10.4 + S:A435S global growth (from Sep onwards) is at 3.4% per day (24% per week). Note I showed this from Aug onwards previously.
Recent samples were all from new locations: Schleswig-Holstein, Centre-Val de Loire, Northern Ireland.
Recent samples were all from new locations: Schleswig-Holstein, Centre-Val de Loire, Northern Ireland.
Looking at the Influenza cases on a per-capita basis, all the states have been holding for almost a month now at levels around 30-50 daily cases per million. In November last year, the daily rates per million were around 10.
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November 7, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Looking at the Influenza cases on a per-capita basis, all the states have been holding for almost a month now at levels around 30-50 daily cases per million. In November last year, the daily rates per million were around 10.
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2025 continues to build on it's established record as the year with the most cases since 2010. Note the testing rate increased during the pandemic, so we can’t compare pre vs pandemic rates.
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November 7, 2025 at 11:29 AM
2025 continues to build on it's established record as the year with the most cases since 2010. Note the testing rate increased during the pandemic, so we can’t compare pre vs pandemic rates.
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Australian Influenza update:
Reported cases have been holding at a stubbornly high plateau. This wave has run much longer than in previous years.
#Influenza #Australia
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Reported cases have been holding at a stubbornly high plateau. This wave has run much longer than in previous years.
#Influenza #Australia
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November 7, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Australian Influenza update:
Reported cases have been holding at a stubbornly high plateau. This wave has run much longer than in previous years.
#Influenza #Australia
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Reported cases have been holding at a stubbornly high plateau. This wave has run much longer than in previous years.
#Influenza #Australia
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Within Australia, BA.3.2.* samples continue to be reported from Western Australia and New South Wales, despite the extremely low levels of recent sampling (grey column chart across the bottom).
Data from Victoria (2nd-largest state) now lags by around 6 weeks.
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Data from Victoria (2nd-largest state) now lags by around 6 weeks.
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November 7, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Within Australia, BA.3.2.* samples continue to be reported from Western Australia and New South Wales, despite the extremely low levels of recent sampling (grey column chart across the bottom).
Data from Victoria (2nd-largest state) now lags by around 6 weeks.
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Data from Victoria (2nd-largest state) now lags by around 6 weeks.
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The volume of wastewater detection of SARS-CoV-2 fell slightly in the latest week. But the share of "BA.3.2.X" detected rebounded to 25% - the highest level reported so far.
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November 7, 2025 at 8:25 AM
The volume of wastewater detection of SARS-CoV-2 fell slightly in the latest week. But the share of "BA.3.2.X" detected rebounded to 25% - the highest level reported so far.
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I’ve used WA Health’s COVID-19 wastewater surveillance page to estimate the number of infections of BA.3.2.
I estimate ~1,100 BA.3.2.* infections in Perth for the latest week, and ~5,700 over the 11 weeks since BA.3.2.* was first detected.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #BA_3_2 #Australia #WA #Perth
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I estimate ~1,100 BA.3.2.* infections in Perth for the latest week, and ~5,700 over the 11 weeks since BA.3.2.* was first detected.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #BA_3_2 #Australia #WA #Perth
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November 7, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Misleading framing in the headline, trying to minimise COVID-19 deaths. They carefully picked the first and only month since 2023 where that was true.
November 7, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Misleading framing in the headline, trying to minimise COVID-19 deaths. They carefully picked the first and only month since 2023 where that was true.
Ah yes. I usually drop the countries with a single sample from the line chart.
But the map of XFG.10.4 + S:A435S is quite impressive, for such a low number of samples.
I think you had a method to fill in the blank Location for most Italian samples?
But the map of XFG.10.4 + S:A435S is quite impressive, for such a low number of samples.
I think you had a method to fill in the blank Location for most Italian samples?
November 6, 2025 at 6:18 AM
Ah yes. I usually drop the countries with a single sample from the line chart.
But the map of XFG.10.4 + S:A435S is quite impressive, for such a low number of samples.
I think you had a method to fill in the blank Location for most Italian samples?
But the map of XFG.10.4 + S:A435S is quite impressive, for such a low number of samples.
I think you had a method to fill in the blank Location for most Italian samples?
Yes it's quite impressive. I found it a bit surprising, but I suppose that pattern has repeated elsewhere with NB.1.8.1.* holding off challengers once it dominates.
Interesting that XDV.* wasn't utterly dominant until about Feb-March 2025. But XDV.* / NB.1.8.1.* has been utterly dominant since.
Interesting that XDV.* wasn't utterly dominant until about Feb-March 2025. But XDV.* / NB.1.8.1.* has been utterly dominant since.
November 5, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Yes it's quite impressive. I found it a bit surprising, but I suppose that pattern has repeated elsewhere with NB.1.8.1.* holding off challengers once it dominates.
Interesting that XDV.* wasn't utterly dominant until about Feb-March 2025. But XDV.* / NB.1.8.1.* has been utterly dominant since.
Interesting that XDV.* wasn't utterly dominant until about Feb-March 2025. But XDV.* / NB.1.8.1.* has been utterly dominant since.
Here's what I have for XFG.10.4 + S:A435S.
Global: growth at 1.8% per day (13% per week)
Italy: growth at 2.3% per day (16% per week), frequency up to 7%.
Global: growth at 1.8% per day (13% per week)
Italy: growth at 2.3% per day (16% per week), frequency up to 7%.
November 5, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Here's what I have for XFG.10.4 + S:A435S.
Global: growth at 1.8% per day (13% per week)
Italy: growth at 2.3% per day (16% per week), frequency up to 7%.
Global: growth at 1.8% per day (13% per week)
Italy: growth at 2.3% per day (16% per week), frequency up to 7%.
Within Australia, BA.3.2.* samples continue to be reported from New South Wales, with the frequency growing to 10%. It’s not clear if these are repeated introductions from WA, or local chains of transmission in NSW. Either way, it increases the risk of further evolution.
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November 2, 2025 at 5:52 AM
Within Australia, BA.3.2.* samples continue to be reported from New South Wales, with the frequency growing to 10%. It’s not clear if these are repeated introductions from WA, or local chains of transmission in NSW. Either way, it increases the risk of further evolution.
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