Migration Observatory
@migobs.bsky.social
The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford provides independent, authoritative, evidence-based analysis on UK migration.
Does this mean more Brits are leaving the UK now than before the pandemic?
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
November 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Does this mean more Brits are leaving the UK now than before the pandemic?
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
The ONS revised the figures because it changed its methodology.
EU net migration was higher than previously thought (although still negative), and British emigration was significantly higher—ONS now believes British net migration was -114,000 in 2024, compared to a previous figure of just -17,000.
EU net migration was higher than previously thought (although still negative), and British emigration was significantly higher—ONS now believes British net migration was -114,000 in 2024, compared to a previous figure of just -17,000.
November 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
The ONS revised the figures because it changed its methodology.
EU net migration was higher than previously thought (although still negative), and British emigration was significantly higher—ONS now believes British net migration was -114,000 in 2024, compared to a previous figure of just -17,000.
EU net migration was higher than previously thought (although still negative), and British emigration was significantly higher—ONS now believes British net migration was -114,000 in 2024, compared to a previous figure of just -17,000.
Revised estimates from the ONS suggest that net migration reached a peak of 944,000 in 2023 (rather than 906,000) and fell faster in 2024, to 345,000 (not 431,000).
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
November 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Revised estimates from the ONS suggest that net migration reached a peak of 944,000 in 2023 (rather than 906,000) and fell faster in 2024, to 345,000 (not 431,000).
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
The share of children born to migrant mothers in England & Wales has been rising. Our updated Children of Migrants briefing shows this is largely due to UK-born women having fewer children on average — and to shifts in the composition of the UK’s migrant population.
November 7, 2025 at 12:42 PM
The share of children born to migrant mothers in England & Wales has been rising. Our updated Children of Migrants briefing shows this is largely due to UK-born women having fewer children on average — and to shifts in the composition of the UK’s migrant population.
Nigerian and Indian international students are more likely to still be in the UK after five years, while US and Chinese students are much less likely.
November 4, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Nigerian and Indian international students are more likely to still be in the UK after five years, while US and Chinese students are much less likely.
45% of international students who came to the UK in 2022 had switched to another visa by the end of 2024.
Students were most likely to have switched onto the Graduate route, but there was also more switching onto long-term work visas than before Brexit.
Students were most likely to have switched onto the Graduate route, but there was also more switching onto long-term work visas than before Brexit.
November 4, 2025 at 9:20 AM
45% of international students who came to the UK in 2022 had switched to another visa by the end of 2024.
Students were most likely to have switched onto the Graduate route, but there was also more switching onto long-term work visas than before Brexit.
Students were most likely to have switched onto the Graduate route, but there was also more switching onto long-term work visas than before Brexit.
Between 2022–2024, the UK issued 19% fewer international student visas — yet universities still enrolled around 730,000 people from abroad in 2023/24, a quarter of all students. India, China & Nigeria led new arrivals.
October 30, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Between 2022–2024, the UK issued 19% fewer international student visas — yet universities still enrolled around 730,000 people from abroad in 2023/24, a quarter of all students. India, China & Nigeria led new arrivals.
We also offer new analysis on the gender pay gap among Skilled Workers. Despite being a male-dominated route, women on these visas earn more, on average, than full-time female workers in the wider UK workforce.
October 17, 2025 at 10:58 AM
We also offer new analysis on the gender pay gap among Skilled Workers. Despite being a male-dominated route, women on these visas earn more, on average, than full-time female workers in the wider UK workforce.
Why the change? More male students and the 2024 ban on dependants have skewed UK study visas towards men. Women remain the majority in Health and Care, partner, humanitarian, and refugee family reunion visas—but policy changes are limiting these routes.
October 17, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Why the change? More male students and the 2024 ban on dependants have skewed UK study visas towards men. Women remain the majority in Health and Care, partner, humanitarian, and refugee family reunion visas—but policy changes are limiting these routes.
Although migration to the UK is roughly gender-balanced, our analysis shows that 2023 was the first time in at least seven years that men outnumbered women in visa and refugee grants.
October 17, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Although migration to the UK is roughly gender-balanced, our analysis shows that 2023 was the first time in at least seven years that men outnumbered women in visa and refugee grants.
Labour has made several migration pledges since entering government, from reducing net migration to ending the use of asylum hotels.
Has progress been made towards achieving these pledges? Take a look at our tracker (in the next post) to find out.
Has progress been made towards achieving these pledges? Take a look at our tracker (in the next post) to find out.
October 14, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Labour has made several migration pledges since entering government, from reducing net migration to ending the use of asylum hotels.
Has progress been made towards achieving these pledges? Take a look at our tracker (in the next post) to find out.
Has progress been made towards achieving these pledges? Take a look at our tracker (in the next post) to find out.
New monthly visa data:
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
October 9, 2025 at 10:40 AM
New monthly visa data:
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
New data provides fascinating insights into outcomes of recent refugees granted status between 2015 and 2020
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
September 26, 2025 at 2:10 PM
New data provides fascinating insights into outcomes of recent refugees granted status between 2015 and 2020
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
Who is responsible for housing asylum seekers and refugees?
In our new Q&A, we cover the following:
In our new Q&A, we cover the following:
September 16, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Who is responsible for housing asylum seekers and refugees?
In our new Q&A, we cover the following:
In our new Q&A, we cover the following:
Sharp increase in homelessness among newly granted refugees was one of the reasons Home Sec cited for recent restriction on refugees' ability to sponsor family members
Our latest Q&A provides background on the new policy
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
Our latest Q&A provides background on the new policy
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
September 10, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Sharp increase in homelessness among newly granted refugees was one of the reasons Home Sec cited for recent restriction on refugees' ability to sponsor family members
Our latest Q&A provides background on the new policy
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
Our latest Q&A provides background on the new policy
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 104% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
August 19, 2025 at 7:44 AM
65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 104% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
The rising share of people migrating with a partner is particularly visible among female main applicants. For possible explanations, check our full briefing!
August 14, 2025 at 10:51 AM
The rising share of people migrating with a partner is particularly visible among female main applicants. For possible explanations, check our full briefing!
This is the result of two factors: rising numbers of students and workers arriving in the UK, and a higher share of migrants bringing their families.
August 14, 2025 at 10:51 AM
This is the result of two factors: rising numbers of students and workers arriving in the UK, and a higher share of migrants bringing their families.
Between 2021 and 2023, the number of visas issued to dependants of workers and students rose sharply.
August 14, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Between 2021 and 2023, the number of visas issued to dependants of workers and students rose sharply.
In the year March 2025, 192,000 work visas were granted to both EU and non-EU citizens.
Our updated work visas briefing looks at the routes work migrants used to come to the UK, the jobs they do once they're here, and how many stay.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
Our updated work visas briefing looks at the routes work migrants used to come to the UK, the jobs they do once they're here, and how many stay.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
August 12, 2025 at 9:25 AM
In the year March 2025, 192,000 work visas were granted to both EU and non-EU citizens.
Our updated work visas briefing looks at the routes work migrants used to come to the UK, the jobs they do once they're here, and how many stay.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
Our updated work visas briefing looks at the routes work migrants used to come to the UK, the jobs they do once they're here, and how many stay.
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
New briefing out today - returns increased 25% in 2024, to the highest level since 2017. More asylum seekers and foreign national offenders were returned too.
Why did numbers increase after sharp declines in the 2010s? And what are the main barriers to returns? Link below
Why did numbers increase after sharp declines in the 2010s? And what are the main barriers to returns? Link below
August 11, 2025 at 12:53 PM
New briefing out today - returns increased 25% in 2024, to the highest level since 2017. More asylum seekers and foreign national offenders were returned too.
Why did numbers increase after sharp declines in the 2010s? And what are the main barriers to returns? Link below
Why did numbers increase after sharp declines in the 2010s? And what are the main barriers to returns? Link below
Are you signed up to our roundup of new data, research and analysis on UK migration?
In last week's newsletter, we covered the UK–France returns deal, international students joining the care workforce, the latest on EU migration & more.
Sign up here 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/newsletter-s...
In last week's newsletter, we covered the UK–France returns deal, international students joining the care workforce, the latest on EU migration & more.
Sign up here 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/newsletter-s...
August 5, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Are you signed up to our roundup of new data, research and analysis on UK migration?
In last week's newsletter, we covered the UK–France returns deal, international students joining the care workforce, the latest on EU migration & more.
Sign up here 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/newsletter-s...
In last week's newsletter, we covered the UK–France returns deal, international students joining the care workforce, the latest on EU migration & more.
Sign up here 👇
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/newsletter-s...
New @ONS estimates today show the spike in rate of population growth in 2023-4 in England/Wales due to net migration
Natural change (i.e. births minus deaths within the UK) has seen striking decline over the past decade, by contrast
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Natural change (i.e. births minus deaths within the UK) has seen striking decline over the past decade, by contrast
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
July 30, 2025 at 9:53 AM
New @ONS estimates today show the spike in rate of population growth in 2023-4 in England/Wales due to net migration
Natural change (i.e. births minus deaths within the UK) has seen striking decline over the past decade, by contrast
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
Natural change (i.e. births minus deaths within the UK) has seen striking decline over the past decade, by contrast
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
The increase in median earnings is likely due to 1) individual earnings improving and 2) migrants with low earnings leaving the labour market (e.g. students working part-time during their studies).
Exits from the employee workforce are highest in the first year after entry.
Exits from the employee workforce are highest in the first year after entry.
July 29, 2025 at 8:51 AM
The increase in median earnings is likely due to 1) individual earnings improving and 2) migrants with low earnings leaving the labour market (e.g. students working part-time during their studies).
Exits from the employee workforce are highest in the first year after entry.
Exits from the employee workforce are highest in the first year after entry.
How have the earnings of migrant employees changed over time?
HMRC stats from our updated piece with @jdportes.bsky.social indicate that non-EU nationals who joined the workforce since Brexit have seen faster earnings growth than earlier cohorts.
HMRC stats from our updated piece with @jdportes.bsky.social indicate that non-EU nationals who joined the workforce since Brexit have seen faster earnings growth than earlier cohorts.
July 29, 2025 at 8:51 AM
How have the earnings of migrant employees changed over time?
HMRC stats from our updated piece with @jdportes.bsky.social indicate that non-EU nationals who joined the workforce since Brexit have seen faster earnings growth than earlier cohorts.
HMRC stats from our updated piece with @jdportes.bsky.social indicate that non-EU nationals who joined the workforce since Brexit have seen faster earnings growth than earlier cohorts.