Vielen Dank! Leider nicht, dass ich wüsste, aber unter diesem Link findet man immer die aktuellen: www.wzb.eu/en/publicati...

🔗Full Paper: bibliothek.wzb.eu/pdf/2025/zz2...

🙏Thanks to Swen Hutter, @chjncke.bsky.social, @charlottekuberka.bsky.social, @hannaschwander.bsky.social @csiebler.bsky.social, and the Center for Civil Society Colloquium @wzb.bsky.social for commenting on earlier versions of this article.

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🤷‍♂️ So, what happened with the Green party?
The party has shifted its stance on migration from 2021 to 2024, adopting a more critical position after entering government. This shift has resulted in the loss of its status as an 'institutional ally' of anti-racist protesters.

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These results hold strong across alternative specs: repeated protest exposure (number of events) and protest participants (various operationalization).

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We find:
1) local anti-racist protest reduced AfD vote shares in German Federal Election 2021 and in the European Election 2024;
2) Green benefitted from anti-racist protests in the German Federal Election 2021, but not anymore in the European Election 2024.

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🧮Methodologically, we employ a diff-in-diff design to study how local anti-racist protests affected anti-migration (AfD) and pro-migration (Green party) vote share.

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To answer the question, we study two cases:

1⃣ Protests following the racist murder in Hanau in 2020 -> 2021 German Federal Election results

2⃣ Protests following the uncovering of mass deportation plans in 2024 -> 2024 European Election results

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A year ago, Germany experienced the largest protest wave in its history in response to the uncovering of racist mass-deportation plans by far-right actors.

theguardian.com/world/2024/f...

❓But what is the effect of such protests on subsequent elections?

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