How can +1.3 W/m^2 compensate -3.2 W/m^2 ? 🤔

Nevertheless, the values remain at a very high level. For several years now, there have been certain signs of an acceleration in the warming trend.

In the second half of 2025, the values were roughly in the 90th percentile of the 1982-2015 climate average. In the first half of the year, they were almost consistently above the 90th percentile!

However, we can expect further easterly or northeasterly conditions until New Year's Eve and possibly beyond. According to both the ECMWF and the GFS, the NAO index will be significantly negative during this period. This will probably bring much colder episodes later.

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In recent years, snow cover in Eastern and Central Europe shortly before Christmas has been significantly better than this year. The current situation is comparable to 2019. Here is a comparison of the years 2025, 2023, and 2019.

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Due to the lack of snow cover in Eastern Europe, not much cold air can be produced near the ground despite predominantly calm high-pressure weather until Christmas. This means that only moderately cold air will reach us on Christmas Eve.

wxcharts.com

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Hey Lukas, hast du das Design deiner Website verändert? 👌 Bei mir wird das aber (noch) nicht so angezeigt.

However, as we are also dealing with a high-pressure system over northeastern Europe that is causing at least temporary blockages, some of the Atlantic lows are settling off the west coast of Europe and bringing extremely mild air masses from the southwest.

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These cold air outbreaks over the North Atlantic in turn fuel the formation of very strong low-pressure systems. That alone would ensure a constant supply of mild and humid Atlantic air to the European continent.
meteociel.fr

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... The controlling fragment of the tropospheric polar vortex positioned itself over northern Canada at the beginning of Dec and is now causing repeated cold air outbreaks in the northeastern US and the adjacent North Atlantic, among other places.
meteociel.fr

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As a result, the stratospheric polar vortex was significantly distorted and displaced. This can be seen from the collapse of the westerly winds. Although there was no actual zonal wind reversal, it was enough to cause a reflection back into the troposphere (interaction)...

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From mid-November onwards, there was a massive transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere in Arctic latitudes, which led to a sharp rise in temperature, especially in the last few days of November, particularly at the 10 hPa level --> SSW

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Warm ist's leider (aus meiner Sicht 😉) immer noch nicht. Aber immerhin milder...

Zumindest auf Europa wohl nicht

Ein weiterer Faktor, der zur Unsicherheit beiträgt: das unmittelbar bevorstehende SSW (egal ob tatsächlich major oder dann doch knapp lediglich minor)