Max Hartmann
@max-meteo.bsky.social
weather & climate stuff (focus on southern Germany and Alps)
meteorologist
chronically resilient (with ME/CFS)
meteorologist
chronically resilient (with ME/CFS)
It's not true that a disrupted stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) has been the established pattern all winter! As you can see in the following graphs:
February 2, 2026 at 11:56 AM
It's not true that a disrupted stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) has been the established pattern all winter! As you can see in the following graphs:
...is steering one low-pressure system after another towards southern Europe. Severe #flooding threatens the entire northern half of #Portugal. Between 150 and 300 mm of rain has already fallen across the region this week. Roughly the same amount is expected to fall next week.
February 1, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Europe is facing another week dominated by a negative #NAO. This has two main consequences: 1. Strong temperature contrasts in a small area. These are particularly severe between the Balkans and Ukraine/the Baltic States. 2. The jet stream is unusually far south and...
February 1, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Europe is facing another week dominated by a negative #NAO. This has two main consequences: 1. Strong temperature contrasts in a small area. These are particularly severe between the Balkans and Ukraine/the Baltic States. 2. The jet stream is unusually far south and...
Sulzberger See knapp südlich von Kempten
January 11, 2026 at 1:23 PM
Sulzberger See knapp südlich von Kempten
Nevertheless, the values remain at a very high level. For several years now, there have been certain signs of an acceleration in the warming trend.
December 19, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Nevertheless, the values remain at a very high level. For several years now, there have been certain signs of an acceleration in the warming trend.
In the second half of 2025, the values were roughly in the 90th percentile of the 1982-2015 climate average. In the first half of the year, they were almost consistently above the 90th percentile!
December 19, 2025 at 4:03 PM
In the second half of 2025, the values were roughly in the 90th percentile of the 1982-2015 climate average. In the first half of the year, they were almost consistently above the 90th percentile!
However, we can expect further easterly or northeasterly conditions until New Year's Eve and possibly beyond. According to both the ECMWF and the GFS, the NAO index will be significantly negative during this period. This will probably bring much colder episodes later.
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December 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
However, we can expect further easterly or northeasterly conditions until New Year's Eve and possibly beyond. According to both the ECMWF and the GFS, the NAO index will be significantly negative during this period. This will probably bring much colder episodes later.
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In recent years, snow cover in Eastern and Central Europe shortly before Christmas has been significantly better than this year. The current situation is comparable to 2019. Here is a comparison of the years 2025, 2023, and 2019.
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December 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
In recent years, snow cover in Eastern and Central Europe shortly before Christmas has been significantly better than this year. The current situation is comparable to 2019. Here is a comparison of the years 2025, 2023, and 2019.
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Due to the lack of snow cover in Eastern Europe, not much cold air can be produced near the ground despite predominantly calm high-pressure weather until Christmas. This means that only moderately cold air will reach us on Christmas Eve.
wxcharts.com
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wxcharts.com
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December 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
Due to the lack of snow cover in Eastern Europe, not much cold air can be produced near the ground despite predominantly calm high-pressure weather until Christmas. This means that only moderately cold air will reach us on Christmas Eve.
wxcharts.com
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wxcharts.com
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On Dec 24, an easterly weather pattern will settle over Central Europe. This will cause temperatures to drop significantly, especially at medium and higher altitudes. However, if there were currently snow over Eastern Europe, even colder air would probably reach us.
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December 18, 2025 at 10:59 AM
On Dec 24, an easterly weather pattern will settle over Central Europe. This will cause temperatures to drop significantly, especially at medium and higher altitudes. However, if there were currently snow over Eastern Europe, even colder air would probably reach us.
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However, as we are also dealing with a high-pressure system over northeastern Europe that is causing at least temporary blockages, some of the Atlantic lows are settling off the west coast of Europe and bringing extremely mild air masses from the southwest.
[End]
[End]
December 7, 2025 at 10:21 AM
However, as we are also dealing with a high-pressure system over northeastern Europe that is causing at least temporary blockages, some of the Atlantic lows are settling off the west coast of Europe and bringing extremely mild air masses from the southwest.
[End]
[End]
These cold air outbreaks over the North Atlantic in turn fuel the formation of very strong low-pressure systems. That alone would ensure a constant supply of mild and humid Atlantic air to the European continent.
meteociel.fr
[5/6]
meteociel.fr
[5/6]
December 7, 2025 at 10:21 AM
These cold air outbreaks over the North Atlantic in turn fuel the formation of very strong low-pressure systems. That alone would ensure a constant supply of mild and humid Atlantic air to the European continent.
meteociel.fr
[5/6]
meteociel.fr
[5/6]
... The controlling fragment of the tropospheric polar vortex positioned itself over northern Canada at the beginning of Dec and is now causing repeated cold air outbreaks in the northeastern US and the adjacent North Atlantic, among other places.
meteociel.fr
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meteociel.fr
[4/6]
December 7, 2025 at 10:21 AM
... The controlling fragment of the tropospheric polar vortex positioned itself over northern Canada at the beginning of Dec and is now causing repeated cold air outbreaks in the northeastern US and the adjacent North Atlantic, among other places.
meteociel.fr
[4/6]
meteociel.fr
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As a result, the stratospheric polar vortex was significantly distorted and displaced. This can be seen from the collapse of the westerly winds. Although there was no actual zonal wind reversal, it was enough to cause a reflection back into the troposphere (interaction)...
[3/6]
[3/6]
December 7, 2025 at 10:21 AM
As a result, the stratospheric polar vortex was significantly distorted and displaced. This can be seen from the collapse of the westerly winds. Although there was no actual zonal wind reversal, it was enough to cause a reflection back into the troposphere (interaction)...
[3/6]
[3/6]
From mid-November onwards, there was a massive transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere in Arctic latitudes, which led to a sharp rise in temperature, especially in the last few days of November, particularly at the 10 hPa level --> SSW
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December 7, 2025 at 10:21 AM
From mid-November onwards, there was a massive transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere in Arctic latitudes, which led to a sharp rise in temperature, especially in the last few days of November, particularly at the 10 hPa level --> SSW
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The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) at the end of November is indirectly responsible for the current and continuing extremely mild phase in Europe. A thread about the consequences of the unusually early SSW and other interactions.
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December 7, 2025 at 10:21 AM
The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) at the end of November is indirectly responsible for the current and continuing extremely mild phase in Europe. A thread about the consequences of the unusually early SSW and other interactions.
[1/6]
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Der statosphärische Polarwirbel ist aktuell noch gesund, kommt in den nächsten 1 bis 2 Wochen aber auch ins Schwächeln. Ob das dann im Dezember auch auf die Troposphäre einen Einfluss hat, lässt sich noch nicht sagen.
charts.ecmwf.int
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charts.ecmwf.int
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November 10, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Der statosphärische Polarwirbel ist aktuell noch gesund, kommt in den nächsten 1 bis 2 Wochen aber auch ins Schwächeln. Ob das dann im Dezember auch auf die Troposphäre einen Einfluss hat, lässt sich noch nicht sagen.
charts.ecmwf.int
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charts.ecmwf.int
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In West- und Mitteleuropa am Donnerstag/ Freitag hingegen 12 Grad über dem Durchschnitt.
Ursächlich ist vor allem ein Blockadehoch über Grönland und ein stark gestörter troposphärischer (!) Polarwirbel.
polarwx.com
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Ursächlich ist vor allem ein Blockadehoch über Grönland und ein stark gestörter troposphärischer (!) Polarwirbel.
polarwx.com
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November 10, 2025 at 12:05 PM
In West- und Mitteleuropa am Donnerstag/ Freitag hingegen 12 Grad über dem Durchschnitt.
Ursächlich ist vor allem ein Blockadehoch über Grönland und ein stark gestörter troposphärischer (!) Polarwirbel.
polarwx.com
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Ursächlich ist vor allem ein Blockadehoch über Grönland und ein stark gestörter troposphärischer (!) Polarwirbel.
polarwx.com
3/4
In Übergangsjahreszeiten sind meridionale Lagen typisch, aber die akt. Situation ist schon bemerkenswert. Die Folgen: Der Osten der USA wird von Kaltluft geflutet ... In 850 hpa liegen die Temperaturen teils 20° unter dem Durchschn. für Mitte Nov.
polarwx.com
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polarwx.com
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November 10, 2025 at 12:05 PM
In Übergangsjahreszeiten sind meridionale Lagen typisch, aber die akt. Situation ist schon bemerkenswert. Die Folgen: Der Osten der USA wird von Kaltluft geflutet ... In 850 hpa liegen die Temperaturen teils 20° unter dem Durchschn. für Mitte Nov.
polarwx.com
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polarwx.com
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Eine noch meridionalere Zirkulation als in den kommenden Tagen geht kaum. In der Nordhemisphere zwischen Amerika und Europa gibt es einen gewaltigen Austausch von polaren und subtropischen Luftmassen.
polarwx.com
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polarwx.com
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November 10, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Eine noch meridionalere Zirkulation als in den kommenden Tagen geht kaum. In der Nordhemisphere zwischen Amerika und Europa gibt es einen gewaltigen Austausch von polaren und subtropischen Luftmassen.
polarwx.com
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polarwx.com
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Die meisten Modelle gehen derzeit von rekordwarmen Luftmassen in 850hpa aus. Hier beispielhaft GFS. Sollte sich der Trend in den nächsten Tagen festigen, dürften dank Föhnunterstützung auch in Tälern Nov-Rekorde fallen. Und das Mitte und nicht Anfang Nov!
polarwx.com
polarwx.com
November 8, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Die meisten Modelle gehen derzeit von rekordwarmen Luftmassen in 850hpa aus. Hier beispielhaft GFS. Sollte sich der Trend in den nächsten Tagen festigen, dürften dank Föhnunterstützung auch in Tälern Nov-Rekorde fallen. Und das Mitte und nicht Anfang Nov!
polarwx.com
polarwx.com
Diese Woche gab es auf manchen Bergstationen in den Alpen neue November-Wärmerekorde. Nächste Woche kommen weitere hinzu. Mit voraussichtlich 15 bis 17 °C im 850-hpa-Niveau (Alpennordseite) und Südföhn ist es wohl sogar noch eine Spur wärmer.
wetterzentrale.de
wetterzentrale.de
November 8, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Diese Woche gab es auf manchen Bergstationen in den Alpen neue November-Wärmerekorde. Nächste Woche kommen weitere hinzu. Mit voraussichtlich 15 bis 17 °C im 850-hpa-Niveau (Alpennordseite) und Südföhn ist es wohl sogar noch eine Spur wärmer.
wetterzentrale.de
wetterzentrale.de
Menschen mit schwerem #ME/CFS können nicht mehr für ihre Rechte einstehen. 🛌
Kannst du für sie demonstrieren gehen? 🚶🚶♀️
In diesen Städten hast du am Wochenende die Chance dazu: München, Berlin, Köln, Frankfurt a.M., Konstanz
Die genauen Termine 👉 mecfs-info.my.canva.site#severe-me-cf...
Kannst du für sie demonstrieren gehen? 🚶🚶♀️
In diesen Städten hast du am Wochenende die Chance dazu: München, Berlin, Köln, Frankfurt a.M., Konstanz
Die genauen Termine 👉 mecfs-info.my.canva.site#severe-me-cf...
August 6, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Menschen mit schwerem #ME/CFS können nicht mehr für ihre Rechte einstehen. 🛌
Kannst du für sie demonstrieren gehen? 🚶🚶♀️
In diesen Städten hast du am Wochenende die Chance dazu: München, Berlin, Köln, Frankfurt a.M., Konstanz
Die genauen Termine 👉 mecfs-info.my.canva.site#severe-me-cf...
Kannst du für sie demonstrieren gehen? 🚶🚶♀️
In diesen Städten hast du am Wochenende die Chance dazu: München, Berlin, Köln, Frankfurt a.M., Konstanz
Die genauen Termine 👉 mecfs-info.my.canva.site#severe-me-cf...
I have a question. As an ocean expert, you may be able to answer it. :) Why are the west coast of Greece and the waters around Sardinia currently slightly cooler than the 1982–2015 average (first map), even though June and July were very warm here (additional maps from @climatologist49.bsky.social)?
August 6, 2025 at 10:51 AM
I have a question. As an ocean expert, you may be able to answer it. :) Why are the west coast of Greece and the waters around Sardinia currently slightly cooler than the 1982–2015 average (first map), even though June and July were very warm here (additional maps from @climatologist49.bsky.social)?
A look at the current state of the ENTIRE Mediterranean:
Water temperatures in the central Mediterranean are currently slightly below average due to the prolonged trough situation. In the eastern region, but also in the far west, temperatures remain above average.
#sea #climate #water #Europe
Water temperatures in the central Mediterranean are currently slightly below average due to the prolonged trough situation. In the eastern region, but also in the far west, temperatures remain above average.
#sea #climate #water #Europe
August 6, 2025 at 10:31 AM