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Matt Peterson
@mattpeterson.bsky.social
4.6K followers 1.5K following 2.1K posts
Covering policymaking, economics, and financial markets for Barron’s. matt.peterson@dowjones.com
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mattpeterson.bsky.social
Trump claims the U.S. would need to repay $2 trillion if the Supreme Court overturned his tariffs. He says that covers "tariff revenue and investments," which presumably includes the deals from Japan, Korea, etc. Credible estimates of tariff revenue are less than 10% of that.
The “Pay Back” Numbers being quoted by the Radical Left Lunatics, who would love to see us lose on Tariffs because of how bad it would be for our Country, are much higher than those being stated by our Fake Opposition — Opposition mainly from Foreign Countries that would do anything to be allowed to charge us Tariffs without retribution. The actual Number we would have to pay back in Tariff Revenue and Investments would be in excess of $2 Trillion Dollars, and that, in itself, would be a National Security catastrophe. Those opposed to us in the United States Supreme Court are giving low Numbers so that the Court will think it is easy to get out of this terrible situation that these Anarchists and Thugs have put us into!
November 10, 2025 at 8:18 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
For funzies, here's China, too. Also outperforming the US.
Chart labeled: "Chinese Exceptionalism." Subtitle: "U.S. stocks have done well this year, China's are doing better." The chart tracks iShares MSCI China ETF against the S&P 500 Index. The chart shows the China ETF moving higher than the S&P 500 for most of the year.
November 10, 2025 at 6:00 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
WSJ reports the recent fall in crypto hurts bitcoin treasury companies, like Strategy, which are basically leveraged bets on BTC.

Also, not in the story but important: Trump family wealth is tied up in this strategy. Eric Trump and Don Jr have significant stakes in bitcoin treasury companies.
The hottest crypto trade has turned cold. Some investors are saying “told you so,” while others are doubling down. It was the move to make for much of the year: Sell shares or borrow money, then plow the cash into bitcoin, ether and other cryptocurrencies. Investors bid up shares of these “crypto-treasury” companies, seeing them as a way to turbocharge wagers on the volatile crypto market. Michael Saylor pioneered the move in 2020 when he transformed a tiny software company, then called MicroStrategy MSTR 1.99%increase; green up pointing triangle, into a bitcoin whale now known as Strategy. But with bitcoin and ether prices now tumbling, so are shares in Strategy and its copycats. Strategy was worth around $128 billion at its peak in July; it is now worth about $70 billion.
November 9, 2025 at 3:08 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Brazilian beef is tariffed at 76.4%
While Cattle Prices have dropped substantially, the price of Boxed Beef has gone up — Therefore, you know that something is “fishy.” We will get to the bottom of it very quickly. If there is criminality, those people responsible will pay a steep price!
November 7, 2025 at 9:07 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Please enjoy Scott Bessent and Larry Kudlow explaining how tariff revenue is just a “coincident” byproduct of the president’s policy of “regulating imports.”

Sure, the president has been saying all year tariffs are making us rich, but maybe the Supreme Court won’t notice.
BESSENT: I - I was very impressed with some of them, with their, you know, obviously, broad and vast - - broad and vast, vast knowledge of legal history. Many of them had a very good understanding of the economic emergency. And many of them understood what President Trump was trying to do in terms of trying to rebalance. And I think they came away understa@ ling that the purpose of the tariffs, the - the revenue, the tremendous amounts of revenue that we are taking in is -- is coincident, and the real goal here is to rebalance our trading relationships and bring home manufacturing. KUDLOW: Yeah, I mean, to some extent -- I agre with you. To to some extent, the -- the revenues, the tariffs' revenues are a byproduct of this new approach to regulating imports. I mean, I think that's it. Now, do did they say anyming about, you know, how the revenues -- like, they're going to be very large in year one, OK? Whatever your number is, Mr. Secretary, 300 billion, 400 billion, I don't know what the right number is, how do they think - if they rule against this IEEPA, how do they think you're going to get rid of those revenues? How do they think you're going to turn them back? I mean, it would be a monstrous, l don't know, impossible task.
November 5, 2025 at 11:21 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Stocks will likely rise if the Supreme Court kills the tariffs because it’s more money in companies’ (and your) pockets.

Evidence? When he announces tariffs, stocks tend to fall.
Donald J. Trump * + @realDonaldTrump Tomorrow's United States Supreme Court case is, literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country. With a Victory, we have tremendous, but fair, Financial and National Security. Without it, we are virtually defenseless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us. Our Stock Market is consistently hitting Record Highs, and our Country has never been more respected than it is right now. A big part of this is the Economic Security created by Tariffs, and the Deals that we have negotiated because of them. Thank you for your attention to this matter! 1.31k ReTruths 3.91k Likes 11/4/25, 4:59 PM
November 4, 2025 at 10:30 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
The White House put out a new US-Japan critical minerals deal. Unlike the Australia deal signed recently, this one doesn’t include specific dollar commitments. Instead it refers vaguely to financial support and investment.

There may be more we don’t see, of course.
1. Securing supply: The Participants are intensifying their cooperative efforts to accelerate the secure supply of critical minerals and rare earths necessary to support domestic industries, including advanced technologies and their respective industrial bases, by leveraging policy tools such as the United States' and Japan's financial support mechanisms, trade measures where appropriate, and critical minerals stockpiling systems. The participants will intensify efforts to promote dialogue amongst upstream and downstream companies to facilitate the diversification of supply chains. 2. Investment in mining and processing: The Participants intend to mobilize government and private sector support including for capital and operational expenditures via grants, guarantees, loans, or equity; offtake arrangements; insurance; or regulatory facilitation.
October 28, 2025 at 2:09 AM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Going to war with American farmers because you want to help Argentina doesn't seem like great politics, but what the hell do I know?
The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% Tariff on Brazil. If it weren’t for me, they would be doing just as they’ve done for the past 20 years — Terrible! It would be nice if they would understand that, but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!
October 22, 2025 at 6:16 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Is there any reason a member of the Trump administration might think that a Signal chat isn’t automatically off the record? Nope. Can’t think of anything.
A copy of Lindsey Halligan’s texts to Lawfare’s Anna Bower, according to Bower. The texts include the following message, from Halligan: “It's obvious the whole convo is off record. There's disappearing messages and it's on signal. What is your story? You never even told me about a story.”
October 20, 2025 at 11:33 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Bloomberg has some details on private-sector moves to support the peso. These efforts are plainly not sufficient. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
As part of the effort to prop up the Argentine currency, Citigroup Inc. sold pesos to the Federal Reserve on Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter. Banco Santander SA has also continued to buy pesos in Argentina’s local market on behalf of the Treasury, another person with direct knowledge of the matter said. It wasn’t clear how much was bought or sold by either institution to date.
October 17, 2025 at 4:42 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
China is deliberately goading Trump into measures that tank the stock market, knowing that his fixation on the market will drive him to capitulate, WSJ reports www.wsj.com/world/china/...
In its trade standoff with Washington, Beijing thinks it has found America's Achilles' heel: President Trump's fixation on the stock market. China's leader, Xi Jinping, is betting that the U.S. economy can't absorb a prolonged trade conflict with the world's second-largest economy, according to people close to Beijing's decision-making. China is holding a firm line because of its conviction, the people said, that an escalating trade war will tank markets, as it did in April after Trump announced his so-called Liberation Day tariffs, prompting Beijing to hit back. China expects that the prospect of another market meltdown ultimately will force Trump to negotiate at an expected summit with Xi late this month, the people said.
October 15, 2025 at 10:10 AM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Don't look now but Trump just freaked out the market again by continuing to escalate the trade war.
I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution. As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.
October 14, 2025 at 7:48 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
China put Trump in a corner. Every way out hurts. www.barrons.com/articles/chi...
China's latest threat to clamp down on exports of rare earths appears to have blindsided President Donald Trump. The Chinese plan "came out of nowhere," Trump said Friday in a social media post. "Nobody has ever seen anything like this." Beijing's escalation of the trade fight has put the Trump administration on the backfoot at a moment of weakness. China's actions show that the U.S. is vulnerable to economic pressure, and China has forced the administration to choose between further escalation or a humiliating climbdown.
October 10, 2025 at 9:27 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
WSJ is leading with *three* stories about how gold prices are exploding as investors look for way to hedge against exposure to cracks in the political system. That and old-fashioned speculation.
Screenshot of the WSJ app, showing three stories about gold’s sharp rise. Text: = WSJ A New Wall Street Trade Is Powering Gold and Hitting Currencies Investors are pouring money into dollar alternatives like bitcoin and precious metals. • 137 October 7 • 5 min read CAPITAL ACCOUNT | GREG IP Gold Rally Points to Eroding Faith in Central Banks Worldwide In Japan, as in the U.S., a new leader wants the central bank to make government debt more bearable, which could feed inflation. 门13 October 8 • 6 min read • LIVE Gold Pushes Further Past $4,000 22 min ago 31 min ago Silver Prices Eye 1980 All-Time High; Gold Hits Another Record How Healthy Is the Labor Market? Hora's What the wsj.com cial Data Says. 1h. BI Ta
October 8, 2025 at 11:32 AM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
I know these details are tiresome, but Japan did not, in fact, just elect its first female prime minister. Sanae Takaichi was elected leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and is *expected to become* prime minister. But someone else is in that job right now.
DJT post on Truth Social: "Japan has just elected its first female Prime Minister, a highly respected person of great wisdom and strength. This is tremendous news for the incredible people of Japan. Congratulations to all! President Donald J. Trump"
October 6, 2025 at 2:18 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
US farmers are furious that the Treasury is bailing out Argentina, which competes with the US on soybean sales.
The Soybean Farmers of our Country are being hurt because China is, for “negotiating” reasons only, not buying. We’ve made so much money on Tariffs, that we are going to take a small portion of that money, and help our Farmers. I WILL NEVER LET OUR FARMERS DOWN! Sleepy Joe Biden didn’t enforce our Agreement with China, where they were going to purchase Billions of Dollars of our Farm Product, but Soybeans, in particular. It’s all going to work out very well. I LOVE OUR PATRIOTS, AND EVERY FARMER IS EXACTLY THAT! I’ll be meeting with President Xi, of China, in four weeks, and Soybeans will be a major topic of discussion. MAKE SOYBEANS, AND OTHER ROW CROPS, GREAT AGAIN!
October 1, 2025 at 5:59 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Argentine peso continues to slide amid the Bessent intervention. The mail bailout mechanism (Exchange Stabilization Fund) is open despite the shutdown.
Line chart of the Argentina peso versus the US dollar, which shows a sharp strengthening of the currency when the bailout was announced, but a weakening in the past few days.
October 1, 2025 at 1:55 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
I don’t think I can explain exactly how Warsh gets from ending QE to lowering, eg, mortgage rates. So I’ll let him explain himself. Here’s the full (long) quote.

Note that when he’s talking about “the world in which we live,” he’s talking to a room full of well-heeled investors.
Financial conditions in the world in which we live, they seem really quite accommodative. Credit spreads are as low as they've been almost in history. Public markets are open for debt and equity issuers. So you would say, I wonder why that is. I'd say part of that is because you're carrying around $7 trillion in the balance sheet the Fed. That's one of your monetary tools. QE works, as Jim [Grant] suggested, first through financial assets, and then will find its way and transmit itself to the real economy. Interest rates are different. We have a lot more experience in interest rates. They hit the real economy first. So I see two economies are out there, each being given a different bit of monetary medicine. Monetary medicine is highly accommodative to the world which so many of us live, but it's not so accommodative on Main Street. So I am sympathetic to the call from some who say interest rates can be made lower. And I would say that is of piece with the balance sheet can be made smaller. If we can target the real side of the economy where real people work and are still trying to get their head above water, then we can end up with lower rates than we currently have. Indeed, a new organizational framework with new data, a new framework for quantitative easing, a new understanding with the Treasury Department. We can do that so we can achieve a stronger, more robust economy and, get this, lower prices.
September 30, 2025 at 9:15 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Screenshot from Trump's schedule that says: "THE PRESIDENT PARTICIPATES IN A PRESS CONFERENCE WITH THE PRIME MINISTER OF THE STATE OF ISRAEL" The chyron on the White House stream of Trump-Netanyahu appearance reads, "President Trump participates in a Press Conference with the Prime Minister of the State of Israel"
September 29, 2025 at 7:13 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Scott Bessent has a history with Argentina from his hedge fund days. From my profile of SB.
Treasury Secretary Scott Be... @ X.com @SecScottBessent Argentina is a systemically important U.S. ally in Latin America, and the @USTreasury stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table. 1/4 8:46 AM • 9/22/25 • 951K Views One memorable episode involved Argentina. The country had defaulted on its debt, prompting some investors to purchase it at a heavy discount, including Bessent's fund. In 2015, Argentines elected a reformist conservative president, Mauricio Macri, who tried to right the country's relationship with the markets. The process was challenging. "They needed to issue new bonds to pay for the old bonds, and they were having trouble issuing them," Bessent said. "And I came to him [Macri], and I said, look, the problem is, no one trusts what's going to happen after your government. My firm will buy a billion [dollars worth of debt] if you issue three-year bonds. It's a four-year term; we will buy a billion dollars worth of threes. And I said, if you do the threes at this price, then it will pull the whole [yield] curve down, and it will let you issue more. So it did and it worked," Bessent said. "Then it blew up in year four. I was right."
September 22, 2025 at 1:52 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Dollar 🔻
Chart with a blue line on a black background showing the dollar dropping .2% immediately following the Fed rate announcement.
September 17, 2025 at 6:16 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
It appears not even Miran, Trump's new appointee, was willing to go as far as the president has demanded with his call for three points in cuts.
An image of the Fed's so-called dot plot. The lowest dot is 2.25-2.5%, in 2027.
September 17, 2025 at 6:09 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Not the point of Bloomberg's mortgage piece, but... Alex Spiro is representing Scott Bessent???
Alex Spiro, a lawyer for Bessent, said he couldn’t comment on how Cook’s situation compares with Bessent’s because he hadn’t looked into Cook’s circumstances in detail.
September 17, 2025 at 12:27 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Here's where the rubber hits the road in terms of Fed independence. The president is weighing in on a live issue for the Fed: Will it cut a quarter point, as the market expects, or a half point? Today, Steve Miran is a regular White House employee. Tomorrow, he will be a voting Fed member.
“Too Late” MUST CUT INTEREST RATES, NOW, AND BIGGER THAN HE HAD IN MIND. HOUSING WILL SOAR!!! President DJT
September 15, 2025 at 12:53 PM
mattpeterson.bsky.social
Trump on Truth Social implies that a TikTok deal has been reached with China. Details unclear. Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer are in Madrid today talking to Chinese negotiators.
The big Trade Meeting in Europe between The United States of America, and China, has gone VERY WELL! It will be concluding shortly. A deal was also reached on a “certain” company that young people in our Country very much wanted to save. They will be very happy! I will be speaking to President Xi on Friday. The relationship remains a very strong one!!! President DJT
September 15, 2025 at 12:21 PM