Matt Peterson
@mattpeterson.bsky.social
Covering policymaking, economics, and financial markets for Barron’s. matt.peterson@dowjones.com
mattpeterson.me
mattpeterson.me
$2,000 tariff dividends would cost $600 billion a year and if paid annually would raise the debt to 134% of GDP (from ~100%) by 2035, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates.
November 10, 2025 at 8:08 PM
$2,000 tariff dividends would cost $600 billion a year and if paid annually would raise the debt to 134% of GDP (from ~100%) by 2035, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates.
We're already above 1,600 flights cancelled today, according to FlightAware, and we're still days away from a final vote a reopen the government. It sure seems like the flight situation will get worse before it gets better.
November 10, 2025 at 3:17 PM
We're already above 1,600 flights cancelled today, according to FlightAware, and we're still days away from a final vote a reopen the government. It sure seems like the flight situation will get worse before it gets better.
Reposted by Matt Peterson
Two-thirds of Democrats say their own party makes them feel frustrated. By far the most commonly cited reason is that the party is not pushing back hard enough against Trump. www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
November 10, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Two-thirds of Democrats say their own party makes them feel frustrated. By far the most commonly cited reason is that the party is not pushing back hard enough against Trump. www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
Reposted by Matt Peterson
Not OK: Before and during the pandemic, lower-income households experienced higher wage growth than other income groups. But that has changed over the past year
Torsten at Apollo
Torsten at Apollo
November 10, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Not OK: Before and during the pandemic, lower-income households experienced higher wage growth than other income groups. But that has changed over the past year
Torsten at Apollo
Torsten at Apollo
WSJ reports the recent fall in crypto hurts bitcoin treasury companies, like Strategy, which are basically leveraged bets on BTC.
Also, not in the story but important: Trump family wealth is tied up in this strategy. Eric Trump and Don Jr have significant stakes in bitcoin treasury companies.
Also, not in the story but important: Trump family wealth is tied up in this strategy. Eric Trump and Don Jr have significant stakes in bitcoin treasury companies.
November 9, 2025 at 3:08 PM
WSJ reports the recent fall in crypto hurts bitcoin treasury companies, like Strategy, which are basically leveraged bets on BTC.
Also, not in the story but important: Trump family wealth is tied up in this strategy. Eric Trump and Don Jr have significant stakes in bitcoin treasury companies.
Also, not in the story but important: Trump family wealth is tied up in this strategy. Eric Trump and Don Jr have significant stakes in bitcoin treasury companies.
Reposted by Matt Peterson
the truth is, I have no idea -- and several states, in fact, did not have any idea -- how this guidance would be implemented and what it would mean in practice. which is the problem, of course. it creates only more confusion around a program in serious trouble.
NEW: The Trump admin told states it must immediately "undo" the work to provide full food stamp benefits, or face penalties. The feds sent this in a late-night memo, only adding to the chaos and confusion around SNAP. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/09/b...
Trump Administration Demands States ‘Undo’ Work to Send Full Food Stamps
www.nytimes.com
November 9, 2025 at 2:46 PM
the truth is, I have no idea -- and several states, in fact, did not have any idea -- how this guidance would be implemented and what it would mean in practice. which is the problem, of course. it creates only more confusion around a program in serious trouble.
Brazilian beef is tariffed at 76.4%
November 7, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Brazilian beef is tariffed at 76.4%
What we’re learning here is that the banks under Warren’s jurisdiction aren’t confirming any participation in the $20b private bailout fund. It may be vaporware. Or it could be run through hedge funds, sovereign funds, etc.
Wall Street’s biggest banks are not ruling out a $20 billion bailout for Argentina.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent still won’t say whether U.S. taxpayers will be left holding the bag.
The American people deserve answers, and Trump’s foreign bailouts must end.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent still won’t say whether U.S. taxpayers will be left holding the bag.
The American people deserve answers, and Trump’s foreign bailouts must end.
November 7, 2025 at 2:57 PM
What we’re learning here is that the banks under Warren’s jurisdiction aren’t confirming any participation in the $20b private bailout fund. It may be vaporware. Or it could be run through hedge funds, sovereign funds, etc.
Truth Social owner Trump Media took a $54.8 million loss last quarter, the company says. It spent $20.3 million on litigation last quarter related to its process of going public through a SPAC. (There were three felony convictions for insider trading from that process. Other disputes are ongoing.)
November 7, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Truth Social owner Trump Media took a $54.8 million loss last quarter, the company says. It spent $20.3 million on litigation last quarter related to its process of going public through a SPAC. (There were three felony convictions for insider trading from that process. Other disputes are ongoing.)
Please enjoy Scott Bessent and Larry Kudlow explaining how tariff revenue is just a “coincident” byproduct of the president’s policy of “regulating imports.”
Sure, the president has been saying all year tariffs are making us rich, but maybe the Supreme Court won’t notice.
Sure, the president has been saying all year tariffs are making us rich, but maybe the Supreme Court won’t notice.
November 5, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Please enjoy Scott Bessent and Larry Kudlow explaining how tariff revenue is just a “coincident” byproduct of the president’s policy of “regulating imports.”
Sure, the president has been saying all year tariffs are making us rich, but maybe the Supreme Court won’t notice.
Sure, the president has been saying all year tariffs are making us rich, but maybe the Supreme Court won’t notice.
I am no one's idea of a legal analyst, but investors are buying stocks and selling bonds. That is exactly what would happen if the government cut taxes.
November 5, 2025 at 5:54 PM
I am no one's idea of a legal analyst, but investors are buying stocks and selling bonds. That is exactly what would happen if the government cut taxes.
"What are taxes" turns out to be the most important legal question of our lifetime.
November 5, 2025 at 4:12 PM
"What are taxes" turns out to be the most important legal question of our lifetime.
Treasury yields from 2 years on rose as the Supreme Court tariff hearing began, and they have stayed up. The government's arguments—for now—haven't convinced bond investors that its tariff revenue stream is secure.
Perhaps most notably, Chief Justice Roberts said bluntly that tariffs are taxes.
Perhaps most notably, Chief Justice Roberts said bluntly that tariffs are taxes.
November 5, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Treasury yields from 2 years on rose as the Supreme Court tariff hearing began, and they have stayed up. The government's arguments—for now—haven't convinced bond investors that its tariff revenue stream is secure.
Perhaps most notably, Chief Justice Roberts said bluntly that tariffs are taxes.
Perhaps most notably, Chief Justice Roberts said bluntly that tariffs are taxes.
Trump, who acknowledged last night’s elections as a loss, believes that the only antidote for Republicans is more Trump. He is flooding the airwaves today: two speeches and a Fox News interview are on the schedule already.
November 5, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Trump, who acknowledged last night’s elections as a loss, believes that the only antidote for Republicans is more Trump. He is flooding the airwaves today: two speeches and a Fox News interview are on the schedule already.
Stocks will likely rise if the Supreme Court kills the tariffs because it’s more money in companies’ (and your) pockets.
Evidence? When he announces tariffs, stocks tend to fall.
Evidence? When he announces tariffs, stocks tend to fall.
November 4, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Stocks will likely rise if the Supreme Court kills the tariffs because it’s more money in companies’ (and your) pockets.
Evidence? When he announces tariffs, stocks tend to fall.
Evidence? When he announces tariffs, stocks tend to fall.
Trump on Iraq, 2016: "I’ve always said—shouldn’t be there, but if we’re going to get out, take the oil."
NYT 2025: U.S. is considering sending "U.S. counterterrorism forces to seize control of airfields and at least some of Venezuela’s oil fields and infrastructure."
NYT 2025: U.S. is considering sending "U.S. counterterrorism forces to seize control of airfields and at least some of Venezuela’s oil fields and infrastructure."
Trump Weighs Options, and Risks, for Attacks on Venezuela
www.nytimes.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Trump on Iraq, 2016: "I’ve always said—shouldn’t be there, but if we’re going to get out, take the oil."
NYT 2025: U.S. is considering sending "U.S. counterterrorism forces to seize control of airfields and at least some of Venezuela’s oil fields and infrastructure."
NYT 2025: U.S. is considering sending "U.S. counterterrorism forces to seize control of airfields and at least some of Venezuela’s oil fields and infrastructure."
A philosophical question: if 21% of Staten Islanders left the city, would the rest of the city notice?
Nearly a million New Yorkers ready to flee NYC if Mamdani becomes mayor — possibly igniting mass exodus: poll
Nearly a million New Yorkers ready to flee NYC if Mamdani becomes mayor — possibly igniting mass exodus: poll
Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers are prepared to bolt from the Big Apple if socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani wins Tuesday's mayoral race — potentially setting the stage for the largest population flight in US history, a new poll warns.
nypost.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:09 PM
A philosophical question: if 21% of Staten Islanders left the city, would the rest of the city notice?
Reposted by Matt Peterson
🚨 BIG 🚨Satmar Ahronim sect is endorsing Mamdani for mayor, two sources familiar confirmed.
Mamdani is expected to meet with Satmar leaders in Williamsburg this afternoon.
Here is more background ⬇️ forward.com/fast-forward...
Mamdani is expected to meet with Satmar leaders in Williamsburg this afternoon.
Here is more background ⬇️ forward.com/fast-forward...
Why Satmar Hasidic leaders endorsed Zohran Mamdani as mayor, stunning many Jewish voters
The Satmar Hasidic community’s endorsement of Zohran Mamdani for NYC mayor shows the broad coalition built by the democratic socialist and Muslim.
forward.com
November 2, 2025 at 5:41 PM
🚨 BIG 🚨Satmar Ahronim sect is endorsing Mamdani for mayor, two sources familiar confirmed.
Mamdani is expected to meet with Satmar leaders in Williamsburg this afternoon.
Here is more background ⬇️ forward.com/fast-forward...
Mamdani is expected to meet with Satmar leaders in Williamsburg this afternoon.
Here is more background ⬇️ forward.com/fast-forward...
Bessent on CNN gives some hints of how he would manage the Fed (a job he says he doesn't want). He says inflation has been driven by federal spending: "If we are contracting spending, then I think inflation would be dropping. If inflation is dropping, then the Fed should be cutting rates."
November 2, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Bessent on CNN gives some hints of how he would manage the Fed (a job he says he doesn't want). He says inflation has been driven by federal spending: "If we are contracting spending, then I think inflation would be dropping. If inflation is dropping, then the Fed should be cutting rates."
"Mortgages rates certainly WERE at the lowest levels in more than year when we reported that fact on Tuesday. But what a difference 2 days make. Actual daily average rates are up 0.20% since then--the fastest 2 day rise since the exact same thing happened after last month's Fed rate cut"
Mortgage Rates Are Anything But Lower This Week
Every now and then, a Thursday comes along where we have to set the record straight on what is actually going on with mortgage rates. That's because Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate s...
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
October 31, 2025 at 2:22 PM
"Mortgages rates certainly WERE at the lowest levels in more than year when we reported that fact on Tuesday. But what a difference 2 days make. Actual daily average rates are up 0.20% since then--the fastest 2 day rise since the exact same thing happened after last month's Fed rate cut"
The U.S. may conduct air strikes on military targets within Venezuela that the administration associates with drug trafficking, the Journal and Miami Herald are reporting. "The strikes could come at any moment," the Herald reports.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
U.S. Eyes Striking Venezuelan Military Targets Used for Drug Trafficking
If President Trump decides to move forward with airstrikes, the targets would send a clear message to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro that it is time to step down, according to U.S. officials.
www.wsj.com
October 31, 2025 at 12:54 PM
The U.S. may conduct air strikes on military targets within Venezuela that the administration associates with drug trafficking, the Journal and Miami Herald are reporting. "The strikes could come at any moment," the Herald reports.
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
www.wsj.com/world/americ...
www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...
With Trump still on Air Force One en route back from China talks, the Senate just voted 51-47 to end the national emergency that underpins his tariff powers. This is a symbolic vote that won't get through the House. But the timing is striking between trade talks and next week's Supreme Court ruling.
Senate Votes to Stop Trump's Broad Tariffs
Senators voted 51-47 to stop the Trump administration’s broad tariffs imposed on imported goods from around the world. It’s a largely symbolic vote that comes just days before the Supreme Court hears ...
www.barrons.com
October 30, 2025 at 5:23 PM
With Trump still on Air Force One en route back from China talks, the Senate just voted 51-47 to end the national emergency that underpins his tariff powers. This is a symbolic vote that won't get through the House. But the timing is striking between trade talks and next week's Supreme Court ruling.
The American Soybean Association puts Beijing's commitments at the low end of what China has purchased in recent years. “If I was a soybean farmer in the Midwest, I'd be working to decrease my reliance on exports to China,” an analyst says.
Trump’s China Soybean Deal Isn’t an Unqualified Win
U.S. farmers may welcome the resumption of sales, but the deal looks more like a return to the status quo than a strategic success.
www.barrons.com
October 30, 2025 at 4:31 PM
The American Soybean Association puts Beijing's commitments at the low end of what China has purchased in recent years. “If I was a soybean farmer in the Midwest, I'd be working to decrease my reliance on exports to China,” an analyst says.
Trump’s China deal appears to be the minimum required to be market neutral. A modest tariff reduction, delay of rare earth restrictions, possibility of Nvidia chip sales, some soybean purchases. Maybe more importantly there’s a commitment to ongoing talks. Just enough to shrug at.
October 30, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Trump’s China deal appears to be the minimum required to be market neutral. A modest tariff reduction, delay of rare earth restrictions, possibility of Nvidia chip sales, some soybean purchases. Maybe more importantly there’s a commitment to ongoing talks. Just enough to shrug at.
Powell's whole discussion of how to manage the balance sheet is something that Warsh, Hassett, and Bessent think should be taken out of the Fed's hands.
October 29, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Powell's whole discussion of how to manage the balance sheet is something that Warsh, Hassett, and Bessent think should be taken out of the Fed's hands.