Matthew Sheffield
@matthew.flux.community
🟦 Writing and editing @flux.community
🟦 Host, Theory of Change podcast
🟦 Former TV producer and pollster
🟦 As seen in NYT, WaPo, NBC, NPR, Variety ...
New book: What Republicans Know https://flux.community/book/what-republicans-know
🟦 Host, Theory of Change podcast
🟦 Former TV producer and pollster
🟦 As seen in NYT, WaPo, NBC, NPR, Variety ...
New book: What Republicans Know https://flux.community/book/what-republicans-know
There's no such thing as an informed centrist.
"Centrism" is not an ideology. The term is what conservatives who are too ignorant or dishonest call themselves.
"Centrism" is not an ideology. The term is what conservatives who are too ignorant or dishonest call themselves.
December 23, 2025 at 3:29 AM
There's no such thing as an informed centrist.
"Centrism" is not an ideology. The term is what conservatives who are too ignorant or dishonest call themselves.
"Centrism" is not an ideology. The term is what conservatives who are too ignorant or dishonest call themselves.
Two other questions show that religions that treat young people poorly seem less likely to retain their membership. But at the same time, high-demand religious households seem at least in this chart to retain membership more. So it's a tension.
Most switching seems to happen by age 30.
Most switching seems to happen by age 30.
December 23, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Two other questions show that religions that treat young people poorly seem less likely to retain their membership. But at the same time, high-demand religious households seem at least in this chart to retain membership more. So it's a tension.
Most switching seems to happen by age 30.
Most switching seems to happen by age 30.
This trend is present on the opposite side as well.
Republican adults who were raised outside religion seem *much* more likely to have joined one later compared to Dems.
80% of Democrats who were "nones" as kids stayed that. Far fewer, 64%, of Republicans did.
Republican adults who were raised outside religion seem *much* more likely to have joined one later compared to Dems.
80% of Democrats who were "nones" as kids stayed that. Far fewer, 64%, of Republicans did.
December 23, 2025 at 12:30 AM
This trend is present on the opposite side as well.
Republican adults who were raised outside religion seem *much* more likely to have joined one later compared to Dems.
80% of Democrats who were "nones" as kids stayed that. Far fewer, 64%, of Republicans did.
Republican adults who were raised outside religion seem *much* more likely to have joined one later compared to Dems.
80% of Democrats who were "nones" as kids stayed that. Far fewer, 64%, of Republicans did.
There are extremely interesting crosstabs on religious switching among political partisans that support the idea that personal cognitive style undergirds religious and political preferences.
33% of Ds who were raised in a faith tradition say they are "nones" now. Just 14% of Rs by contrast.
33% of Ds who were raised in a faith tradition say they are "nones" now. Just 14% of Rs by contrast.
December 23, 2025 at 12:28 AM
There are extremely interesting crosstabs on religious switching among political partisans that support the idea that personal cognitive style undergirds religious and political preferences.
33% of Ds who were raised in a faith tradition say they are "nones" now. Just 14% of Rs by contrast.
33% of Ds who were raised in a faith tradition say they are "nones" now. Just 14% of Rs by contrast.
🧵 The Pew Research Center has some fascinating details on religious switching. Only 56% of American adults are in the system they were raised in.
Very important info on switching from various groups, too.
Why do people say they leave? The biggest reason is that they stopped believing the claims.
Very important info on switching from various groups, too.
Why do people say they leave? The biggest reason is that they stopped believing the claims.
December 23, 2025 at 12:24 AM
🧵 The Pew Research Center has some fascinating details on religious switching. Only 56% of American adults are in the system they were raised in.
Very important info on switching from various groups, too.
Why do people say they leave? The biggest reason is that they stopped believing the claims.
Very important info on switching from various groups, too.
Why do people say they leave? The biggest reason is that they stopped believing the claims.
I've heard of "the dog at my homework," but I have not heard of "the devil made my tablet battery die."
Erika Kirk seeming to imply that Satan was in league with her event staff tonight to "wipe" her propaganda speech. I'm sure she's a treat to work for.
Erika Kirk seeming to imply that Satan was in league with her event staff tonight to "wipe" her propaganda speech. I'm sure she's a treat to work for.
December 19, 2025 at 4:27 AM
I've heard of "the dog at my homework," but I have not heard of "the devil made my tablet battery die."
Erika Kirk seeming to imply that Satan was in league with her event staff tonight to "wipe" her propaganda speech. I'm sure she's a treat to work for.
Erika Kirk seeming to imply that Satan was in league with her event staff tonight to "wipe" her propaganda speech. I'm sure she's a treat to work for.
In a 2015 poll, 49 percent of Republicans believed that humans and dinosaurs lived together. 36 percent of Democrats agreed. 41 percent of indies agreed.
I hope we can get a Trump-era update poll. I'd bet it's become more partisan. ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/ta...
I hope we can get a Trump-era update poll. I'd bet it's become more partisan. ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/ta...
December 13, 2025 at 4:53 PM
In a 2015 poll, 49 percent of Republicans believed that humans and dinosaurs lived together. 36 percent of Democrats agreed. 41 percent of indies agreed.
I hope we can get a Trump-era update poll. I'd bet it's become more partisan. ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/ta...
I hope we can get a Trump-era update poll. I'd bet it's become more partisan. ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/ta...
The numbers bear this out. Trump won in 2024 primarily because he improved his favorability among Hispanics. He's lost all that ground, because of harmful deportations and his inflationary policies
December 3, 2025 at 9:49 PM
The numbers bear this out. Trump won in 2024 primarily because he improved his favorability among Hispanics. He's lost all that ground, because of harmful deportations and his inflationary policies
Musk showed the world that AI has become his substitute for healthy relationships with this video he generated of a 3D modeled woman who turns toward the camera and says "I will always love you."
He is so cruel and controlling that he can never have things like this for real, despite his billions.
He is so cruel and controlling that he can never have things like this for real, despite his billions.
November 20, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Musk showed the world that AI has become his substitute for healthy relationships with this video he generated of a 3D modeled woman who turns toward the camera and says "I will always love you."
He is so cruel and controlling that he can never have things like this for real, despite his billions.
He is so cruel and controlling that he can never have things like this for real, despite his billions.
November 20, 2025 at 5:48 PM
I've been had!
But leaving OP up because it is such a hilarious rendition of nozzle.
But leaving OP up because it is such a hilarious rendition of nozzle.
November 20, 2025 at 5:33 PM
I've been had!
But leaving OP up because it is such a hilarious rendition of nozzle.
But leaving OP up because it is such a hilarious rendition of nozzle.
Elon Musk seems to be requiring Grok to say that he's a paragon of fitness, with a particular alert to make excuses for his infamous boat photo.
Elno's vanity and peevishness know no bounds.
Elno's vanity and peevishness know no bounds.
November 20, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Elon Musk seems to be requiring Grok to say that he's a paragon of fitness, with a particular alert to make excuses for his infamous boat photo.
Elno's vanity and peevishness know no bounds.
Elno's vanity and peevishness know no bounds.
So bizarre that Bluesky cut off the image there. Let's try again
November 18, 2025 at 9:16 PM
So bizarre that Bluesky cut off the image there. Let's try again
Bill Maher says he's not interested in touring anymore. And of course it's the audiences' fault.
Couldn't possibly be because weak-kneed libertarianism is of no interest. www.cracked.com/article_4917...
Couldn't possibly be because weak-kneed libertarianism is of no interest. www.cracked.com/article_4917...
November 18, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Bill Maher says he's not interested in touring anymore. And of course it's the audiences' fault.
Couldn't possibly be because weak-kneed libertarianism is of no interest. www.cracked.com/article_4917...
Couldn't possibly be because weak-kneed libertarianism is of no interest. www.cracked.com/article_4917...
Kevin Roberts, the fascist president of the Heritage Foundation, is claiming he only follows sports media and that he doesn't know much of anything about Nick Fuentes, the neo-Nazi he said belongs in Republican politics archive.is/Ysxtm
November 13, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Kevin Roberts, the fascist president of the Heritage Foundation, is claiming he only follows sports media and that he doesn't know much of anything about Nick Fuentes, the neo-Nazi he said belongs in Republican politics archive.is/Ysxtm
Here's a related post in which a reactionary Christian commentator boasts of teaching her child that social skills and caring about others are superfluous.
These people literally value ignorance and selfishness. Apolitical people must be told this frequently.
These people literally value ignorance and selfishness. Apolitical people must be told this frequently.
November 12, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Here's a related post in which a reactionary Christian commentator boasts of teaching her child that social skills and caring about others are superfluous.
These people literally value ignorance and selfishness. Apolitical people must be told this frequently.
These people literally value ignorance and selfishness. Apolitical people must be told this frequently.
The radical right thinks that personal ignorance about something is an argument against it.
It's so rare to see the attitude expressed so perfectly. This guy thinks that proclaiming his ignorance of a world famous author is an insult to her, instead of a brutal self-own.
It's so rare to see the attitude expressed so perfectly. This guy thinks that proclaiming his ignorance of a world famous author is an insult to her, instead of a brutal self-own.
November 12, 2025 at 4:23 PM
The radical right thinks that personal ignorance about something is an argument against it.
It's so rare to see the attitude expressed so perfectly. This guy thinks that proclaiming his ignorance of a world famous author is an insult to her, instead of a brutal self-own.
It's so rare to see the attitude expressed so perfectly. This guy thinks that proclaiming his ignorance of a world famous author is an insult to her, instead of a brutal self-own.
When you look at the red states, their tax systems drastically favor the rich over regular people.
Republicans want to steal your money and give it to rich people who do not contribute to society.
Right-wing tax policy is the biggest scam in history.
Republicans want to steal your money and give it to rich people who do not contribute to society.
Right-wing tax policy is the biggest scam in history.
November 9, 2025 at 7:52 PM
When you look at the red states, their tax systems drastically favor the rich over regular people.
Republicans want to steal your money and give it to rich people who do not contribute to society.
Right-wing tax policy is the biggest scam in history.
Republicans want to steal your money and give it to rich people who do not contribute to society.
Right-wing tax policy is the biggest scam in history.
Reactionaries want poverty though. It's that simple. This is why you actually see them defending Ebeneezer Scrooge every few years. They literally think there are too many useless eaters in this world.
And they showed it during Covid. They want you to die.
And they showed it during Covid. They want you to die.
November 9, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Reactionaries want poverty though. It's that simple. This is why you actually see them defending Ebeneezer Scrooge every few years. They literally think there are too many useless eaters in this world.
And they showed it during Covid. They want you to die.
And they showed it during Covid. They want you to die.
A large middle class never really existed in human history. It was created by the government in the US and every other country that has one.
Reactionaries hate this. They want most people to be poor and dependent on rich citizens or churches. Republicans have relentlessly attacked social systems.
Reactionaries hate this. They want most people to be poor and dependent on rich citizens or churches. Republicans have relentlessly attacked social systems.
November 9, 2025 at 7:27 PM
A large middle class never really existed in human history. It was created by the government in the US and every other country that has one.
Reactionaries hate this. They want most people to be poor and dependent on rich citizens or churches. Republicans have relentlessly attacked social systems.
Reactionaries hate this. They want most people to be poor and dependent on rich citizens or churches. Republicans have relentlessly attacked social systems.
🧵Donald Trump is famous for being able to manipulate his supporters' opinions. But he comes from a long line of far-right oligarchs who mask radically pro-rich policies as "populist."
The only difference between today's billionaires & earlier ones is that Peter Thiel et al say the quiet part aloud.
The only difference between today's billionaires & earlier ones is that Peter Thiel et al say the quiet part aloud.
November 9, 2025 at 7:06 PM
🧵Donald Trump is famous for being able to manipulate his supporters' opinions. But he comes from a long line of far-right oligarchs who mask radically pro-rich policies as "populist."
The only difference between today's billionaires & earlier ones is that Peter Thiel et al say the quiet part aloud.
The only difference between today's billionaires & earlier ones is that Peter Thiel et al say the quiet part aloud.
"Heady" is one of the very few words with opposite definitions.
The 3b denotation here seems to have evolved from people not understanding the word. Try "scintillating" instead, folks!
The 3b denotation here seems to have evolved from people not understanding the word. Try "scintillating" instead, folks!
November 8, 2025 at 1:45 AM
"Heady" is one of the very few words with opposite definitions.
The 3b denotation here seems to have evolved from people not understanding the word. Try "scintillating" instead, folks!
The 3b denotation here seems to have evolved from people not understanding the word. Try "scintillating" instead, folks!
Andrew Cuomo represents a shrinking coalition of rich people. Households earning more than $300k annually are the only financial demographic where he won a majority.
Zohran Mamdani won several majorities, by contrast.
(By lying about crime, AC got a small victory among the poorest NYers.)
Zohran Mamdani won several majorities, by contrast.
(By lying about crime, AC got a small victory among the poorest NYers.)
November 5, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Andrew Cuomo represents a shrinking coalition of rich people. Households earning more than $300k annually are the only financial demographic where he won a majority.
Zohran Mamdani won several majorities, by contrast.
(By lying about crime, AC got a small victory among the poorest NYers.)
Zohran Mamdani won several majorities, by contrast.
(By lying about crime, AC got a small victory among the poorest NYers.)
Wow: Peter Thiel in a private 2020 email argued that capitalism has failed young Americans, and so this is why they have become socialist.
This is almost literally Zohran Mamdani's campaign message.
The email was posted to Xitter by his friend VC Chamath Palihapitiya.
This is almost literally Zohran Mamdani's campaign message.
The email was posted to Xitter by his friend VC Chamath Palihapitiya.
November 5, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Wow: Peter Thiel in a private 2020 email argued that capitalism has failed young Americans, and so this is why they have become socialist.
This is almost literally Zohran Mamdani's campaign message.
The email was posted to Xitter by his friend VC Chamath Palihapitiya.
This is almost literally Zohran Mamdani's campaign message.
The email was posted to Xitter by his friend VC Chamath Palihapitiya.
Whether it's Latinos turning against Republicans or Trump being the only Republican some people will support, the party has a huge problem on its hands since he won't be on the ballot again.
Greg Abbott is reportedly worried about Texas's redistricting. plus.flux.community/p/3-key-take...
Greg Abbott is reportedly worried about Texas's redistricting. plus.flux.community/p/3-key-take...
November 5, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Whether it's Latinos turning against Republicans or Trump being the only Republican some people will support, the party has a huge problem on its hands since he won't be on the ballot again.
Greg Abbott is reportedly worried about Texas's redistricting. plus.flux.community/p/3-key-take...
Greg Abbott is reportedly worried about Texas's redistricting. plus.flux.community/p/3-key-take...