There's been a lot of debate on these targets since Vauxhall announced they'll close their Luton plant.

No doubt any watering down of plans will be legally challenged. Hard to see how to hit CB6 without decarbonising cars & vans (19% of 2022 domestic emissions)

www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/industr...

Updated UK emission projections (EEP). DESNZ's projections are lower than EEP2023, largely due to targets on car manufacturers to make 80% of car sales zero emissions by 2030. That cuts emissions by 57Mt and 104 Mt in CB5 (2028-'32) & CB6 ('33-37).

www.gov.uk/government/p...

Interesting dip in carbon prices in the late 20s though, as renewables push out gas electricity!

Updated DESNZ UK ETS price projections.

Clean Power 2030 assumes a carbon price in 2030 of around £150/t, driving the claim that the 2030 target reduces bills as you won't be paying this big carbon price.

DESNZ projects a price of £50-107/t in 2030

www.gov.uk/government/p...

Really interesting thread - the disincentives on heat pumps and EVs feels like an important point.

Did suppliers previously have an option to do this? If so it’s telling they didn’t. They’re not exactly raking in profit.

If not, why mandate when you can unban?

The result has been very high unit prices per KWh, substantially increasing the private savings from installing solar or investing in energy efficiency far above the actual cost reductions to the grid, while discouraging the switch away from fossil fuels to electric vehicles and heat pumps. (16/n)

As others say, this looks like the impact of the BUS in April 2022 then general inflation. £1,400 in 2022 is around £1550 today.

I imagine installation with be much less exposed to international competition than solar costs.

www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-pol...

Reflecting on my views - it’s be naive to expect politicians to announce their unpopular policies before an election. Being economical with the truth is an established campaign strategy.

But the quid pro quo is taking the flak when, post election, you’re criticised for having misled pre-election

100% agree. But it’s a bit like pre-election saying they won’t raise taxes but will restore public services. You can read between the lines and say “surely they can’t mean all taxes”, but it suggests pre-election planning was at best unserious and at worst disingenuous. Likewise with the 2030 target

Sure, their manifesto said they’d keep a strategic reserve of gas. But they didn’t attribute a number (at least I can’t find one) and were saying 100% as recently as March

labour.org.uk/wp-content/u...

Point of installing alongside existing boiler systems is to get customers comfortable with heat pumps. It can't be a long-term solution.