Marley Miller
marleygmiller.bsky.social
Marley Miller
@marleygmiller.bsky.social
Associate Director, Politics and Public Policy, Global Counsel. Former economic advisor to Rachel Reeves and Treasury official. Posts mainly about housing, energy and economic policy
See our full report here with Homes for the North
setting out why this model is needed and how it should be implemented:
www.global-counsel.com/insights/rep...
The case for public investment in affordable housing funds | Global Counsel
This paper was written by M
www.global-counsel.com
June 12, 2025 at 4:35 PM
This is not a replacement for grant funding.

The model works for affordable rent homes for those on middle incomes.

This means more money from programmes like the Affordable Homes can be targeted on social rent – increasing housebuilding and overall affordability (12/12)
May 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Greater Manchester has also recently established similar approach to invest in housing for key workers.

💡The opportunity now is for the govt to scale this up to a national approach to ramp up housebuilding (11/12)
May 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
This model has been used in Scotland

✅Every £1 govt invested has brought in £3-4 of private investment

✅1,200 homes will be built

✅Scot govt is expected to have loan paid back over 25yrs

✅Scottish National Investment Bank will make a positive return on investment (10/12)
May 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Under the fiscal rules, this kind of investment would be roughly FISCALLY NEUTRAL as the value of the projects would be counted as well as the cost.

The only cost would be on the discount offered on the loan vs HMT’s borrowing costs (9/12)
May 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
To do this, Homes England should be given a “National Affordable Housing Bank” role:

With funding to invest in affordable housing funds if they can demonstrate they will deliver certain levels of affordable homes and can leverage wider private investment into projects (8/12)
May 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
🪙The govt should use this change to invest in funds set up to deliver affordable housing at a low fiscal cost.

Using low-interest loans can turn market-rate rental housing into affordable rent.

Equity investment can attract private investment, incl from pension funds (7/12)
May 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
However, at the Autumn Budget the government changed how it measures debt:

It now uses “Net Financial Debt” which considers the value of government financial investments as well as their cost (6/12)
May 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
At the Spending Review the govt needs to consider how to target funding to boost housebuilding.

🤔BUT the Chancellor faces a particularly tough fiscal situation leaving limited room within the fiscal rules for the kind of investment needed using existing tools (5/12)
May 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
The government’s planning reforms are a great start.

Higher housing targets will increase local authority ambition and the grey belt reforms will bring more land into the system.

Yet, the government is still forecast to fall short of its 1.5 million homes target (4/12)
May 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Housing associations face acute challenges.

High construction costs and new government safety/efficiency standards have required substantial investment in existing stock.

Many have had to halt their new build programmes, resulting in the largest fall in starts since 1978 (3/12)
May 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Housebuilding rates are at the lowest levels since the pandemic, due to high interest rates and increased borrowing costs.

40% fewer projects were started last year than the year before – with a similar number now as after the financial crisis (2/12)
May 23, 2025 at 12:07 PM