Mark Hogle
@markhogle.bsky.social
The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought. -Rudy Dornbusch
How many fingers, Winston?
How many fingers, Winston?
Reposted by Mark Hogle
I think the even more fundamental issue is that estimates relative to a counterfactual are very hard to explain to voters. It's hard to dispel "the economy grew by 15% over nine years, so it can't have been that bad" by "it would likely have grown by 21 -23%".
November 10, 2025 at 5:54 PM
I think the even more fundamental issue is that estimates relative to a counterfactual are very hard to explain to voters. It's hard to dispel "the economy grew by 15% over nine years, so it can't have been that bad" by "it would likely have grown by 21 -23%".