Are VIX traders smarter than others? Arguably yes, given their tendency to front-run market tops, as indicated by correlation divergences.
November 24, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Are VIX traders smarter than others? Arguably yes, given their tendency to front-run market tops, as indicated by correlation divergences.
Here’s a variant comparing current VIX with 3-month forward VIX implied by option prices. There are many reversals from initial backwardation, but also cases in which oversold conditions become more oversold. Never a layup, is it?
November 23, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Here’s a variant comparing current VIX with 3-month forward VIX implied by option prices. There are many reversals from initial backwardation, but also cases in which oversold conditions become more oversold. Never a layup, is it?
BTC reality. H/t @TechCharts
November 22, 2025 at 12:32 PM
BTC reality. H/t @TechCharts
My trend following can beat up your Fed commentary.
November 21, 2025 at 2:03 PM
My trend following can beat up your Fed commentary.
Context matters. 🎯
November 21, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Context matters. 🎯
Mid-week humor
November 19, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Mid-week humor
In New Hampshire it is.
November 18, 2025 at 12:09 PM
In New Hampshire it is.
H/t @MebFaber
November 17, 2025 at 1:40 PM
H/t @MebFaber
Note to self: Don't neglect the X-axis.
November 17, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Note to self: Don't neglect the X-axis.
Healthcare is rising versus SPX, but Staples and Utilities aren't. Upshot? Defensive sectors don’t yet indicate a cyclical top.
November 17, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Healthcare is rising versus SPX, but Staples and Utilities aren't. Upshot? Defensive sectors don’t yet indicate a cyclical top.
Watching GLD buildout for next directional clue.
November 14, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Watching GLD buildout for next directional clue.
Heads up. BTC consolidation pattern negated by this reckoning, suggesting potentially important top. H/t @TechCharts
November 14, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Heads up. BTC consolidation pattern negated by this reckoning, suggesting potentially important top. H/t @TechCharts
Watching decade-old support.
November 12, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Watching decade-old support.
Mid-week humor. H/t @boldleonidas
November 12, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Mid-week humor. H/t @boldleonidas
SPX/Gold, long-term perspective.
November 11, 2025 at 1:53 PM
SPX/Gold, long-term perspective.
Comment: I sense that today’s politics have expanded gold sponsorship beyond its traditional libertarian borders. Guessing that left-leaning investors are now open to gold’s portfolio efficiency, which was generally not the case during my advisory career. H/t @RenMacLLC
November 10, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Comment: I sense that today’s politics have expanded gold sponsorship beyond its traditional libertarian borders. Guessing that left-leaning investors are now open to gold’s portfolio efficiency, which was generally not the case during my advisory career. H/t @RenMacLLC
Confirmation on deck. Requires a close above Friday's high. A close above today's headline-driven open would further the case, in my view.
November 10, 2025 at 1:24 PM
Confirmation on deck. Requires a close above Friday's high. A close above today's headline-driven open would further the case, in my view.
1/ Heads up. 10-day average of NYSE new lows >4% has signaled cyclical tops in 11 of 20 cases since 1990. It would take an average of roughly 130 new lows over the next two sessions to hurdle 4%.
November 8, 2025 at 2:57 PM
1/ Heads up. 10-day average of NYSE new lows >4% has signaled cyclical tops in 11 of 20 cases since 1990. It would take an average of roughly 130 new lows over the next two sessions to hurdle 4%.
Wake me up when tech rolls over.
November 7, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Wake me up when tech rolls over.
Comment: Sharp correction followed by bull-market continuation commands the middle ground.
November 7, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Comment: Sharp correction followed by bull-market continuation commands the middle ground.
October job loss per Revelio Labs.
November 6, 2025 at 2:41 PM
October job loss per Revelio Labs.
Today's Challenger layoff report is boosting bond prices in early trading, but hasn't reversed yesterday's losses.
November 6, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Today's Challenger layoff report is boosting bond prices in early trading, but hasn't reversed yesterday's losses.
GLD anchored VWAP from last point of supply preceding 30% runup (blue), and frothy top preceding 11% drawdown (orange). Am I framing this correctly?
November 6, 2025 at 1:21 PM
GLD anchored VWAP from last point of supply preceding 30% runup (blue), and frothy top preceding 11% drawdown (orange). Am I framing this correctly?