Marios Richards
@mariosrichards.bsky.social
Frequently wrong. Please correct (effort involved appreciated).
Experiments with Data Visualisation:
https://github.com/MariosRichards/BES_analysis_code
https://medium.com/@mariosrichards
https://mariosrichards.substack.com/
Experiments with Data Visualisation:
https://github.com/MariosRichards/BES_analysis_code
https://medium.com/@mariosrichards
https://mariosrichards.substack.com/
However, after the 2024GE, Labour's support profile dropped specifically from it's Ec Left flank.
November 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM
However, after the 2024GE, Labour's support profile dropped specifically from it's Ec Left flank.
This is from before the 2024GE and is more or less typical of party positions (LDs are most mobile).
November 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM
This is from before the 2024GE and is more or less typical of party positions (LDs are most mobile).
(BES, wave 30 - May 2025 - demo weighted)
selfUSTies=
"Some people think Britain should have much closer economic ties with the United States(0), while other people think that Britain should protect its independence from the United States(10)? What do you think?"
selfUSTies=
"Some people think Britain should have much closer economic ties with the United States(0), while other people think that Britain should protect its independence from the United States(10)? What do you think?"
November 11, 2025 at 12:49 PM
(BES, wave 30 - May 2025 - demo weighted)
selfUSTies=
"Some people think Britain should have much closer economic ties with the United States(0), while other people think that Britain should protect its independence from the United States(10)? What do you think?"
selfUSTies=
"Some people think Britain should have much closer economic ties with the United States(0), while other people think that Britain should protect its independence from the United States(10)? What do you think?"
Only the economic benefits of publicly appeasing Trump are the least reliable and the public is *waaaay* more negative about Trump than immigration.
November 11, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Only the economic benefits of publicly appeasing Trump are the least reliable and the public is *waaaay* more negative about Trump than immigration.
Actually quite an unusually weak effect for *any* trust measure by left-right self placement (at least, as found in BES data).
November 10, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Actually quite an unusually weak effect for *any* trust measure by left-right self placement (at least, as found in BES data).
Notably, Labour's support base (political compass plane of 'like Labour') doesn't move *positionally* 92-97 and is the furthest 'left' in the dataset - they're just dramatically more popular (c3=valence/everyone-like-more)
November 8, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Notably, Labour's support base (political compass plane of 'like Labour') doesn't move *positionally* 92-97 and is the furthest 'left' in the dataset - they're just dramatically more popular (c3=valence/everyone-like-more)
In theory, it could mean anything at all. In practice, this is what answers to it correlated with for @britishelectionstudy.com respondents in the pre-2024GE wave.
(right-coded, but an even stronger emphasis on oppositition to secessionist parties)
(right-coded, but an even stronger emphasis on oppositition to secessionist parties)
November 7, 2025 at 1:44 PM
In theory, it could mean anything at all. In practice, this is what answers to it correlated with for @britishelectionstudy.com respondents in the pre-2024GE wave.
(right-coded, but an even stronger emphasis on oppositition to secessionist parties)
(right-coded, but an even stronger emphasis on oppositition to secessionist parties)
P.S. I was surprised to find the support profile of the UK 1997 Referendum Party is actually more like the BNP than UKIP - I'd have pegged it as an obvious forerunner of a 'centre-right/extreme-right' beachhead party because of its clear centre-right origin under Goldsmith.
November 7, 2025 at 1:04 PM
P.S. I was surprised to find the support profile of the UK 1997 Referendum Party is actually more like the BNP than UKIP - I'd have pegged it as an obvious forerunner of a 'centre-right/extreme-right' beachhead party because of its clear centre-right origin under Goldsmith.
Tell me if you don't want this linked and I'll delete, but for the convenience of non-academics, here's an ungated link:
strathprints.strath.ac.uk/60852/1/Widf...
strathprints.strath.ac.uk/60852/1/Widf...
November 7, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Tell me if you don't want this linked and I'll delete, but for the convenience of non-academics, here's an ungated link:
strathprints.strath.ac.uk/60852/1/Widf...
strathprints.strath.ac.uk/60852/1/Widf...
I think it's also understated how much it matters what is happening in other democratic countries.
Suppression of the Radical Right - and the dramatic swelling of the Centre Right - began with hanging people from lampposts.
Suppression of the Radical Right - and the dramatic swelling of the Centre Right - began with hanging people from lampposts.
November 7, 2025 at 10:32 AM
I think it's also understated how much it matters what is happening in other democratic countries.
Suppression of the Radical Right - and the dramatic swelling of the Centre Right - began with hanging people from lampposts.
Suppression of the Radical Right - and the dramatic swelling of the Centre Right - began with hanging people from lampposts.
So the interesting thing is that the Conservative coalition - where their support among the electorate is - hasn't actually moved that much (political compass angle) over the last couple of decades (or, I think, much before that during full-franchise).
November 7, 2025 at 10:32 AM
So the interesting thing is that the Conservative coalition - where their support among the electorate is - hasn't actually moved that much (political compass angle) over the last couple of decades (or, I think, much before that during full-franchise).
November 7, 2025 at 2:17 AM
So the whole "I would simply do the thing that Maximises Voteshare" boils down to "The Party should try to be Generally More Popular" ['c3' in the chart because I like bland naming conventions].
Which is at least honestly trivial (note that this has no obvious relation with party position)
Which is at least honestly trivial (note that this has no obvious relation with party position)
November 6, 2025 at 4:59 PM
So the whole "I would simply do the thing that Maximises Voteshare" boils down to "The Party should try to be Generally More Popular" ['c3' in the chart because I like bland naming conventions].
Which is at least honestly trivial (note that this has no obvious relation with party position)
Which is at least honestly trivial (note that this has no obvious relation with party position)
Raw distribution for warmRomanians.
Pronounced quarter-point spikes and a midpoint-DK - but overall *much* smoother than 10/11 pt scales (*nobody* seems to want to say they are 9/10 for a political party).
Pronounced quarter-point spikes and a midpoint-DK - but overall *much* smoother than 10/11 pt scales (*nobody* seems to want to say they are 9/10 for a political party).
November 4, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Raw distribution for warmRomanians.
Pronounced quarter-point spikes and a midpoint-DK - but overall *much* smoother than 10/11 pt scales (*nobody* seems to want to say they are 9/10 for a political party).
Pronounced quarter-point spikes and a midpoint-DK - but overall *much* smoother than 10/11 pt scales (*nobody* seems to want to say they are 9/10 for a political party).
As far as I can tell, the UK major axis of politics has *always* been Lib-Left vs Auth-Right with a clean 45 degree line running from one corner with a 5-10 degree scope for wobbling.
(ignore the last panel!)
(ignore the last panel!)
November 4, 2025 at 5:16 PM
As far as I can tell, the UK major axis of politics has *always* been Lib-Left vs Auth-Right with a clean 45 degree line running from one corner with a 5-10 degree scope for wobbling.
(ignore the last panel!)
(ignore the last panel!)
... but I just recently ran the new positioning model on data going back to 87 (will go further if I can find some way to synthesise value scale data without the value-scale qs).
Angle here is anti-clockwise around the political compass.
Plaid Cymru ... is problematic (think constrained elec geo).
Angle here is anti-clockwise around the political compass.
Plaid Cymru ... is problematic (think constrained elec geo).
November 4, 2025 at 3:40 PM
... but I just recently ran the new positioning model on data going back to 87 (will go further if I can find some way to synthesise value scale data without the value-scale qs).
Angle here is anti-clockwise around the political compass.
Plaid Cymru ... is problematic (think constrained elec geo).
Angle here is anti-clockwise around the political compass.
Plaid Cymru ... is problematic (think constrained elec geo).
The two UK blocs consistently look like this with a small amount of wobble in that dividing axis so I think the clearest/least creative names are Lib-Left vs Auth-Right blocs.
November 4, 2025 at 11:36 AM
The two UK blocs consistently look like this with a small amount of wobble in that dividing axis so I think the clearest/least creative names are Lib-Left vs Auth-Right blocs.
So I mostly think this is just a side effect of
(i) polling where you give people lots of options other than broad income tax bump
(ii) political cueing (public support for tax rises for was at/near an all-time high until 2023*)
* curious what drives that 2023+ jump in 'reduce taxes' ...
(i) polling where you give people lots of options other than broad income tax bump
(ii) political cueing (public support for tax rises for was at/near an all-time high until 2023*)
* curious what drives that 2023+ jump in 'reduce taxes' ...
November 3, 2025 at 11:20 AM
So I mostly think this is just a side effect of
(i) polling where you give people lots of options other than broad income tax bump
(ii) political cueing (public support for tax rises for was at/near an all-time high until 2023*)
* curious what drives that 2023+ jump in 'reduce taxes' ...
(i) polling where you give people lots of options other than broad income tax bump
(ii) political cueing (public support for tax rises for was at/near an all-time high until 2023*)
* curious what drives that 2023+ jump in 'reduce taxes' ...
They weren't always the "most English" party
Until pretty late in the 19th century Conservatives were getting similar voteshares in Wales as to England.
Until pretty late in the 19th century Conservatives were getting similar voteshares in Wales as to England.
November 2, 2025 at 12:16 PM
They weren't always the "most English" party
Until pretty late in the 19th century Conservatives were getting similar voteshares in Wales as to England.
Until pretty late in the 19th century Conservatives were getting similar voteshares in Wales as to England.
British Election Study 1997 asks more or less the same question to the same respondents - do you like the Conservative Party? - on a 5pt scale and an 11pt scale ...
... and the correlation of the results is only .77.
9 point "Strongly Against" them ... who *also rated them 10/10 for liking them!*.
... and the correlation of the results is only .77.
9 point "Strongly Against" them ... who *also rated them 10/10 for liking them!*.
October 31, 2025 at 10:29 PM
British Election Study 1997 asks more or less the same question to the same respondents - do you like the Conservative Party? - on a 5pt scale and an 11pt scale ...
... and the correlation of the results is only .77.
9 point "Strongly Against" them ... who *also rated them 10/10 for liking them!*.
... and the correlation of the results is only .77.
9 point "Strongly Against" them ... who *also rated them 10/10 for liking them!*.
Choices, choices
October 31, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Choices, choices
Watching Reform eat the apple from one side live while the Liberal Democrats mostly already ate it from their side.
October 31, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Watching Reform eat the apple from one side live while the Liberal Democrats mostly already ate it from their side.
Reading this, it feels like your answer leans more to "there isn't such thing, it's just a specific elite framing for Authoritarian-bloc interests".
October 31, 2025 at 11:45 AM
Reading this, it feels like your answer leans more to "there isn't such thing, it's just a specific elite framing for Authoritarian-bloc interests".
(2) Values vs Policy
I see the argument, but I'm not convinced it's true.
For a start, the whole "it's actually about control not authoritarian opposition to immigration" ran strongly 2017-2021 and then got buried when most of its adherents pivoted to denouncing the Boriswave.
I see the argument, but I'm not convinced it's true.
For a start, the whole "it's actually about control not authoritarian opposition to immigration" ran strongly 2017-2021 and then got buried when most of its adherents pivoted to denouncing the Boriswave.
October 31, 2025 at 11:45 AM
(2) Values vs Policy
I see the argument, but I'm not convinced it's true.
For a start, the whole "it's actually about control not authoritarian opposition to immigration" ran strongly 2017-2021 and then got buried when most of its adherents pivoted to denouncing the Boriswave.
I see the argument, but I'm not convinced it's true.
For a start, the whole "it's actually about control not authoritarian opposition to immigration" ran strongly 2017-2021 and then got buried when most of its adherents pivoted to denouncing the Boriswave.
