A few people asked if home advantage had also dropped across Europe's top leagues (with the introduction of VAR, for example): the data suggests this season’s Premier League trend is still an outlier 👇

GW25 Assistant Manager Points Potential 📊

No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value.
However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling?

Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data

FPL Double and Blank Gameweeks

Viz dump + logic explained 🧵

I went back and calculated #FPL Assistant Manager points for every PL game over the last 8 seasons (and combined with pre-game market WDL odds)

These are the top 100 AM scores for games played in GW24-38 between 2016-7 and 2023-24 👇

And a few quick observations below 🧵

Looking at projections, AM chip can be worth somewhere between 20 to 30 projected points, which makes it probably the most valuable chip imo. They may go above 30 when doubles are known. Will be very interesting to see how people approach to it.

I calculated the EVs for the Assistant Manager in each fixture.

For now, not factored in probability of being 5 places below so:

Pts = EV if they not 5+ places below
Pts++ = EV if they are 5+ places below

From my team strength model

How have pre-match market projections compared with underlying data (xG) and outcomes so far this season?

A team by team look at the data from the first 15 gameweeks (rolling average of previous 3 GWs) 👇

#FPL My thoughts and feelings on the new shiny Assistant Manager chip. It's intriguing to have a new challenge, but I find it annoying.

1️⃣ It requires a new slot in our "Knapsack problem" of 15 players, taking ITB and 3-player limits into account. Decision-making just got unnecessarily harder.