15. While recent rises in opium prices could incentivise farmers to grow more poppy in 2026, understanding these starkly divergent realities & how different farmers in Afghanistan experience the poppy ban is critical to developing informed policy responses

14. While in SW Afghanistan landed farmers still prosper from their stocks despite largely abandoning the crop after the harvest in 2022, & the land poor increasingly leave to grow poppy in Balochistan, the options in Badakhshan are extremely limited even though poppy persists.

13. Low yields of wheat & fodder crops grown in rainfed lands may force livestock sales and drive down market prices, further reducing the ability of even more landed farmers from meeting this years shortfall in income from their agricultural land.

12. Low levels of cultivation of poppy cultivation in irrigated areas due to the Taliban ban & low yields from their expanded crop in rainfed areas will leave many farmers unable to meet their basic needs. But given recent global events sending family to Iran is no longer an option.

11. In Badakhshan this year’s dry conditions have increased the pressure to send further family members to Iran. The rainfed poppy crop planted in late 2024 has yielded little due to poor spring rains & there are fears the spring planted crop will fail entirely.

10. Land poor farmers in other parts of Afghanistan like Badakhshan & Nangarhar do not have the same economic opportunities across the border, & have come to rely on family members travelling to Iran to find work, or moving onto Turkey, Iraq and Europe.

9. With a lack of local employment opportunities many are compelled to look for jobs elsewhere, hence the large number of land poor from the southwest that have moved to Balochistan in Pakistan to grow poppy.

8. The economic impact of the ban is extremely uneven and is wreaking havoc on land poor farmers in Afghanistan who fall far short of their basic needs when it comes to on-farm income, and do not have the opium stocks needed to make up the shortfall.

7. Along with improved processing techniques & the increased use of adulterants, the continued opium production from the region has ensured supplies are maintained to those downstream & potentially mitigated against a more dramatic shift to synthetic opioids in Europe.

6. This dramatic increase in poppy cultivation in Balochistan, the substantial inventory with landed farmers in SW Afghanistan, and continued cultivation in Badakhshan in northeastern Afghanistan, has put downward pressure on prices despite the Taliban drugs ban.

5. Imagery shows poppy fields in Balochistan exceeding one hectare, and individual farms of more than five; the latter a rarity in Afghanistan even in the years when opium production was at its most prolific.

4. This includes the use of solar-powered deep wells for the extraction of groundwater, and an influx of land poor Afghan farmers, many of whom now cultivate poppy in Balochistan as tenants or under sharecropping arrangements.

3. Where we do see far more dramatic increases in poppy cultivation is across the border in Balochistan Province in Pakistan. This rise in cultivation has been supported by the technical know-how that led to the concentration of poppy in the former desert areas of SW Afghanistan.

2. Evidence does show an uptick in cultivation in the southwest this year but also that the significant opium stocks held by landed farmers & the relatively high price of opium have continued to buttress against a more widespread return to poppy.

4/4 As despite all the talk of innovation & AI, far too much research relies too heavily on what people say (even those that may appear more informed), & fails to check the specifics of location, terrain, infrastructure & resources to assess whether what is claimed is even physically possible.

3/4 Ultimately, the blog draws on the Farsi phrase “can hearing ever be like seeing?” to plea for improving the quality of research & fully integrating satellite imagery & geospatial analysis to avoid misleading policy makers, & achieve better policy outcomes.

2/4 While the research focuses on conflict & climate change, the location means there are some drug angles: from the trigger for the heavy fighting on the Iran & Afghanistan border in May 2023 to the poppy ban increasing ground water extraction & the risk of significant outmigration in the future.