15. While recent rises in opium prices could incentivise farmers to grow more poppy in 2026, understanding these starkly divergent realities & how different farmers in Afghanistan experience the poppy ban is critical to developing informed policy responses

12. Low levels of cultivation of poppy cultivation in irrigated areas due to the Taliban ban & low yields from their expanded crop in rainfed areas will leave many farmers unable to meet their basic needs. But given recent global events sending family to Iran is no longer an option.

11. In Badakhshan this year’s dry conditions have increased the pressure to send further family members to Iran. The rainfed poppy crop planted in late 2024 has yielded little due to poor spring rains & there are fears the spring planted crop will fail entirely.

8. The economic impact of the ban is extremely uneven and is wreaking havoc on land poor farmers in Afghanistan who fall far short of their basic needs when it comes to on-farm income, and do not have the opium stocks needed to make up the shortfall.

7. Along with improved processing techniques & the increased use of adulterants, the continued opium production from the region has ensured supplies are maintained to those downstream & potentially mitigated against a more dramatic shift to synthetic opioids in Europe.

6. This dramatic increase in poppy cultivation in Balochistan, the substantial inventory with landed farmers in SW Afghanistan, and continued cultivation in Badakhshan in northeastern Afghanistan, has put downward pressure on prices despite the Taliban drugs ban.

5. Imagery shows poppy fields in Balochistan exceeding one hectare, and individual farms of more than five; the latter a rarity in Afghanistan even in the years when opium production was at its most prolific.

4. This includes the use of solar-powered deep wells for the extraction of groundwater, and an influx of land poor Afghan farmers, many of whom now cultivate poppy in Balochistan as tenants or under sharecropping arrangements.

3. Where we do see far more dramatic increases in poppy cultivation is across the border in Balochistan Province in Pakistan. This rise in cultivation has been supported by the technical know-how that led to the concentration of poppy in the former desert areas of SW Afghanistan.

2. Evidence does show an uptick in cultivation in the southwest this year but also that the significant opium stocks held by landed farmers & the relatively high price of opium have continued to buttress against a more widespread return to poppy.

4/4 As despite all the talk of innovation & AI, far too much research relies too heavily on what people say (even those that may appear more informed), & fails to check the specifics of location, terrain, infrastructure & resources to assess whether what is claimed is even physically possible.

2/4 While the research focuses on conflict & climate change, the location means there are some drug angles: from the trigger for the heavy fighting on the Iran & Afghanistan border in May 2023 to the poppy ban increasing ground water extraction & the risk of significant outmigration in the future.

1/4 Blog @lawfaremedia.org with @alcis.org funded by @XCEPT It focuses on the transformative effects of solar power: how it has supported Afghan farmers cope with climate change but ultimately how its expansion now threatens the livelihoods of 3.65 million people www.lawfaremedia.org/article/unde...

1. With the ephedra season now drawn to a close & the poppy planting season in full swing, it is an ideal time to assess the impact of the Taliban drug ban on the methamphetamine & opium industries, & the implications for the rural economy, & the political stability of Afghanistan.