There is indeed record flooding occurring in the Manning, and the situation is severe, but this is not the worst flood ever experienced for *the entirety* the Mid North Coast. Many spots aren’t even close to March 2021 levels.

Forecasts and warnings can change on a dime, so please stay up to date if you are in the affected area, and NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATER. The majority of people who die in floods nowadays die in their cars.
BoM warnings for NSW here: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/

Adding to the complexity here is the stalling of the system and the delivery of multiple rounds of rainfall. Renewed rises and multiple peaks make the situation much more complex. It continues to evolve very quickly, with no respite from the rain until at least Saturday

Flood warnings are likely going to continue for several weeks as these floodwaters move slowly downstream

THE TAKEAWAY:
Cyclone tracks and categories don’t always tell the full flood story. Keep an eye on warnings, and don’t let "downgraded" or "weakening" make you complacent about flood risk. Stay safe and stay updated.

Same with Ex-TC Debbie—it lost cyclone status after crossing the coast near Bowen, but as a tropical low, it kept moving inland, causing major flooding in SE QLD and NE NSW. At Lismore, 1,000 km south of where it initially made landfall and was downgraded, the levee was overtopped.

Take Cyclone Jasper—it made landfall as a Cat 2 but was quickly downgraded. The problem? It crawled over Cape York Peninsula, dumping most of its rain after being downgraded and causing record flooding in some locations.

*Cyclone Downgrading
*
Similarly, just because a cyclone is downgraded doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods for flooding. In fact, some of the worst flooding happens after a cyclone is no longer officially at "tropical cyclone strength".

*Cyclone Category*

We also hear a lot about cyclone category, but that only tells us one thing: mean wind speed.

As a flood forecaster, I care much more about whether a cyclone stalls. How long it lingers over a region makes all the difference when it comes to flood risk.

Rain impacts often begin days before landfall—and they persist for days afterwards.

For example, the Dorrigo Ranges on the Mid North Coast have already copped 300 mm—about 350 km away from the cyclone’s center offshore. The Bellinger River is already in minor flood. And Cyclone Alfred still hasn’t made landfall.

*Cyclone Landfall Location*


There’s always a lot of focus on where a cyclone makes landfall, which makes sense. But rain impacts start well before that.

This video is a nightmare for me to watch as a flood forecaster. The vast majority of people who die in floods die in their cars. The storm surge associated with Alfred is much, much higher than normal for this coastline making it particularly dangerous. Cars are replaceable. Lives are not.

BoM warnings here: www.bom.gov.au/australia/wa...

NSW SES warnings including links to download Hazards Near Me app: www.ses.nsw.gov.au/northern-riv...

QLD council warnings: www.getready.qld.gov.au/find-your-lo...

QLD councils - Disaster Dashboards: www.qld.gov.au/community/di...