I have hope for the future still, but it’s critical that the Carney government get costs down and houses built. If voters don’t see meaningful progress in those areas, I worry that Canada’s politics will get swamped the way ours have in the US.

It’s a testament to how much more liberal Canada is that the Liberals have won despite this trend, but I worry that this trend—of right-wing populism finding appeal in working-class and immigrant communities who feel left behind economically—will fly under the radar because of the Liberals’ win.

The Conservative surge in these areas, which have in some cases never, ever voted blue, is unsettlingly reminiscent of Trump’s electoral success in the Rust Belt and in heavily Latino communities all across the US.

All of these ridings are poorer or working-class: Hamilton and Windsor are both former manufacturing hubs that went through deindustrialization, while Brampton is known for its large South Asian immigrant population.

Windsor West +19.8
Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore +18.7
Brampton—North Caledon +15.6
Brampton West +22.3
Brampton Centre +16.0
Brampton South +18.2
Brampton East +16.1
Brampton—Chinguacousy Park +14.4
Hamilton Centre +14.0
Hamilton Mountain +16.5
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek +18.7

There are 27 highly competitive ridings where no candidate has better than a two-in-three chance of winning according to the forecast. Here they are (arranged roughly from east to west)

A big reason the Liberals are so likely to win this election (77% chance of winning a majority and 99% chance of winning the most seats) despite being only 4 points ahead nationally is that the Conservatives also have to overcome a 9-point deficit in Ontario, where a third of Canadians live.

While the polls have largely stabilized over the past week, the Liberals continue to hold a 6-point lead. The Conservatives would need a huge turnaround to have a shot at forming government, and that kind of turnaround just isn't the kind of thing we've historically seen following leaders' debates.

Yeah but in Ty Winklevoss’s defense he’s a complete tool