Mac Tan
@mactan.bsky.social
-he/him 🏳️🌈
-Philly boy 🦅
-elections forecaster (as a hobby, but you know how intense some hobbies can get)
-chess player♟️
-British comedy obsessive
-PC gamer🎮 (yes, that’s a controller; there isn’t an emoji for PC gaming)
-proud goldendoodle co-parent🦮
-Philly boy 🦅
-elections forecaster (as a hobby, but you know how intense some hobbies can get)
-chess player♟️
-British comedy obsessive
-PC gamer🎮 (yes, that’s a controller; there isn’t an emoji for PC gaming)
-proud goldendoodle co-parent🦮
bro we don’t have time in our mortal lives here on earth to just be here listening to you list all the things you don’t know
October 7, 2025 at 10:19 PM
bro we don’t have time in our mortal lives here on earth to just be here listening to you list all the things you don’t know
Ma’am, that “agonizing” feeling is called a conscience. You’re supposed to stop what you’re doing when it goes off on you like that
July 2, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Ma’am, that “agonizing” feeling is called a conscience. You’re supposed to stop what you’re doing when it goes off on you like that
This kind of shit is why they told their members not to do town halls anymore lmao
June 1, 2025 at 4:45 PM
This kind of shit is why they told their members not to do town halls anymore lmao
This headline has the same energy as “Berks County woman named Time Person of the Year”
May 8, 2025 at 7:03 PM
This headline has the same energy as “Berks County woman named Time Person of the Year”
There are 27 highly competitive ridings where no candidate has better than a two-in-three chance of winning according to the forecast. Here they are (arranged roughly from east to west)
April 28, 2025 at 2:50 PM
There are 27 highly competitive ridings where no candidate has better than a two-in-three chance of winning according to the forecast. Here they are (arranged roughly from east to west)
A big reason the Liberals are so likely to win this election (77% chance of winning a majority and 99% chance of winning the most seats) despite being only 4 points ahead nationally is that the Conservatives also have to overcome a 9-point deficit in Ontario, where a third of Canadians live.
April 28, 2025 at 2:10 PM
A big reason the Liberals are so likely to win this election (77% chance of winning a majority and 99% chance of winning the most seats) despite being only 4 points ahead nationally is that the Conservatives also have to overcome a 9-point deficit in Ontario, where a third of Canadians live.
Canadians vote today. Here's where the polls sit and what the forecast says for number of seats:
April 28, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Canadians vote today. Here's where the polls sit and what the forecast says for number of seats:
While the polls have largely stabilized over the past week, the Liberals continue to hold a 6-point lead. The Conservatives would need a huge turnaround to have a shot at forming government, and that kind of turnaround just isn't the kind of thing we've historically seen following leaders' debates.
April 17, 2025 at 10:46 PM
While the polls have largely stabilized over the past week, the Liberals continue to hold a 6-point lead. The Conservatives would need a huge turnaround to have a shot at forming government, and that kind of turnaround just isn't the kind of thing we've historically seen following leaders' debates.
Canadian party leaders will have their only English-language debate tonight. Here's where the polls stand:
April 17, 2025 at 10:44 PM
Canadian party leaders will have their only English-language debate tonight. Here's where the polls stand:
Men will literally go to therapy rather than acknowledge Jalen Hurts is even a better than average QB
April 15, 2025 at 4:37 AM
Men will literally go to therapy rather than acknowledge Jalen Hurts is even a better than average QB
babe wake up, new ballot for Pierre Poilievre’s riding just dropped
April 14, 2025 at 6:17 PM
babe wake up, new ballot for Pierre Poilievre’s riding just dropped
Pretty dire numbers for Schumer
April 4, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Pretty dire numbers for Schumer
Bookmark the figure -3 in your brain: that's where Trump's net approval rating was on April 3, 2025. We'll see in a week or two what people think after the tariffs have had time to sink in.
April 3, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Bookmark the figure -3 in your brain: that's where Trump's net approval rating was on April 3, 2025. We'll see in a week or two what people think after the tariffs have had time to sink in.
bro the tariffs aren’t even live yet
April 3, 2025 at 1:25 PM
bro the tariffs aren’t even live yet
Trump’s “well established methodology” for calculating the tariffs is extremely dumb. The reasoning that all of our trade deficit must be due to other countries scamming us is basically unchanged from his 2020 reasoning that any change in the vote from 2016 must have been due to voter fraud
April 3, 2025 at 2:33 AM
Trump’s “well established methodology” for calculating the tariffs is extremely dumb. The reasoning that all of our trade deficit must be due to other countries scamming us is basically unchanged from his 2020 reasoning that any change in the vote from 2016 must have been due to voter fraud
Regional trends tell a lot of the story. The Liberals lead in vote-rich Ontario, and their big lead in Quebec could translate to a near-wipeout for the Bloc in the Montreal metro area. Meanwhile, the NDP's continued floundering has allowed the Liberals to remain competitive in BC.
March 26, 2025 at 12:44 AM
Regional trends tell a lot of the story. The Liberals lead in vote-rich Ontario, and their big lead in Quebec could translate to a near-wipeout for the Bloc in the Montreal metro area. Meanwhile, the NDP's continued floundering has allowed the Liberals to remain competitive in BC.
With an election date set, the Liberals lead in the polls and are more likely than not (64%) to win an outright majority in the 343-seat House.
March 26, 2025 at 12:39 AM
With an election date set, the Liberals lead in the polls and are more likely than not (64%) to win an outright majority in the 343-seat House.
While NYT/Upshot did beat me to publishing it, I did just want to note that I had also been disturbed by FiveThirtyEight's abrupt shutdown and put together my own poll tracker. Probably won't be a need for regular updates, but here's Trump's approval up through today
March 18, 2025 at 1:07 AM
While NYT/Upshot did beat me to publishing it, I did just want to note that I had also been disturbed by FiveThirtyEight's abrupt shutdown and put together my own poll tracker. Probably won't be a need for regular updates, but here's Trump's approval up through today
Mark Carney had a good first week as Liberal leader, not only officially becoming PM but continuing the party's meteoric rebound in the polls. Most polls published since he was elected leader have shown the Liberals ahead, and an election if held today would basically be a toss-up.
March 17, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Mark Carney had a good first week as Liberal leader, not only officially becoming PM but continuing the party's meteoric rebound in the polls. Most polls published since he was elected leader have shown the Liberals ahead, and an election if held today would basically be a toss-up.
Meanwhile in Spain there are ads trying to get you to eat even more eggs
March 5, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Meanwhile in Spain there are ads trying to get you to eat even more eggs
bro those last two Canadian election polls are wack
February 26, 2025 at 11:24 PM
bro those last two Canadian election polls are wack
that moment in Stephen King’s Cell when they realize the zombies are evolving a hive mind
February 25, 2025 at 5:51 PM
that moment in Stephen King’s Cell when they realize the zombies are evolving a hive mind
If the exit poll is about right (as it typically is in Germany), this is… a relatively okay result? AfD in second is still far from ideal, but they’re underperforming the last pre-election polls by about a point.
February 23, 2025 at 5:48 PM
If the exit poll is about right (as it typically is in Germany), this is… a relatively okay result? AfD in second is still far from ideal, but they’re underperforming the last pre-election polls by about a point.