Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
Research Fellow at IFS and EPI, independent consultant, posts about about school funding, education, inequalities and cycling
Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029
This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO
If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]
This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO
If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]
October 3, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029
This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO
If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]
This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO
If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]
There is a huge variation in educational outcomes across pupils with EHCPs with different types of needs. These differences have been quite stable over time.
There are probably big differences within types of needs too, illustrating the diversity of need and challenge in providing support [6/6]
There are probably big differences within types of needs too, illustrating the diversity of need and challenge in providing support [6/6]
October 3, 2025 at 1:37 PM
There is a huge variation in educational outcomes across pupils with EHCPs with different types of needs. These differences have been quite stable over time.
There are probably big differences within types of needs too, illustrating the diversity of need and challenge in providing support [6/6]
There are probably big differences within types of needs too, illustrating the diversity of need and challenge in providing support [6/6]
Increases in disability claims are faster for teenagers than for adults, with practically all of the increase driven by Autism and ADHD needs
If this turns into more young adults on out of work benefits, this could generate big labour market and fiscal risks [5/6]
If this turns into more young adults on out of work benefits, this could generate big labour market and fiscal risks [5/6]
October 3, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Increases in disability claims are faster for teenagers than for adults, with practically all of the increase driven by Autism and ADHD needs
If this turns into more young adults on out of work benefits, this could generate big labour market and fiscal risks [5/6]
If this turns into more young adults on out of work benefits, this could generate big labour market and fiscal risks [5/6]
Areas with high EHCP rates tend to have high numbers of children receiving disability benefits. But the relationship is weaker than expected.
Many areas of London have high EHCP rates, but average CDLA claims
Some areas are really high on both measures (Knowsley: 7% with EHCPs, 16% on CDLA) [4/6]
Many areas of London have high EHCP rates, but average CDLA claims
Some areas are really high on both measures (Knowsley: 7% with EHCPs, 16% on CDLA) [4/6]
October 3, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Areas with high EHCP rates tend to have high numbers of children receiving disability benefits. But the relationship is weaker than expected.
Many areas of London have high EHCP rates, but average CDLA claims
Some areas are really high on both measures (Knowsley: 7% with EHCPs, 16% on CDLA) [4/6]
Many areas of London have high EHCP rates, but average CDLA claims
Some areas are really high on both measures (Knowsley: 7% with EHCPs, 16% on CDLA) [4/6]
Children with EHCPs are much more likely to come from a low-income background. This relationship is persistent over time and seen across a range of measures. Talk of bigger increases amongst middle and high income parents isn't really borne out in the data [3/6]
October 3, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Children with EHCPs are much more likely to come from a low-income background. This relationship is persistent over time and seen across a range of measures. Talk of bigger increases amongst middle and high income parents isn't really borne out in the data [3/6]
The fastest increases in EHCPs are amongst 4- and 5-year-olds. This could be a really good sign if earlier identification of needs leads to early, high-quality support. That is a BIG if though. [2/6]
October 3, 2025 at 1:37 PM
The fastest increases in EHCPs are amongst 4- and 5-year-olds. This could be a really good sign if earlier identification of needs leads to early, high-quality support. That is a BIG if though. [2/6]
And finally (!), whilst reform may seem hard and costly. Doing nothing is probably worse.
Spending is going to go up, the question is how to spend the money in ways that actually improve the system.
Spending is going to go up, the question is how to spend the money in ways that actually improve the system.
September 12, 2025 at 11:15 AM
And finally (!), whilst reform may seem hard and costly. Doing nothing is probably worse.
Spending is going to go up, the question is how to spend the money in ways that actually improve the system.
Spending is going to go up, the question is how to spend the money in ways that actually improve the system.
Attitudes are also key, and difficult to shift (as seen in Scotland). Schools and teachers must believe that providing for SEND is a core part of their job, and feel able to do it [6/6]
September 12, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Attitudes are also key, and difficult to shift (as seen in Scotland). Schools and teachers must believe that providing for SEND is a core part of their job, and feel able to do it [6/6]
Currently, accountability is focused on spending and inputs. This should shift to outcomes and quality [5/6]
September 12, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Currently, accountability is focused on spending and inputs. This should shift to outcomes and quality [5/6]
If reforms are to be successful, there must be a coherent transformation of the supply side. This probably involves more state-funded special schools and increased provision in mainstream schools [4/6]
September 12, 2025 at 11:15 AM
If reforms are to be successful, there must be a coherent transformation of the supply side. This probably involves more state-funded special schools and increased provision in mainstream schools [4/6]
The present system creates legal entitlements pupil by pupil. But, there is practically no way to judge whether the £4bn increase in funding has delivered value-for-money. The evidence on the best approaches is pretty thin.
The net result is high cost and patchy quality [3/6]
The net result is high cost and patchy quality [3/6]
September 12, 2025 at 11:15 AM
The present system creates legal entitlements pupil by pupil. But, there is practically no way to judge whether the £4bn increase in funding has delivered value-for-money. The evidence on the best approaches is pretty thin.
The net result is high cost and patchy quality [3/6]
The net result is high cost and patchy quality [3/6]
Faced with aggressive cancer, my friend decided to end his life in Switzerland almost exactly a year ago
I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK
These are his words. He always wrote beautifully
I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK
These are his words. He always wrote beautifully
June 20, 2025 at 6:42 AM
Faced with aggressive cancer, my friend decided to end his life in Switzerland almost exactly a year ago
I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK
These are his words. He always wrote beautifully
I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK
These are his words. He always wrote beautifully
Surprise, surprise @samfr.bsky.social
The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago
The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago
June 11, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Surprise, surprise @samfr.bsky.social
The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago
The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago
We haven’t heard anything about the plans for college spending. As a reminder, pupil numbers are rising in FE and sixth forms – so the government would need to find £300m to keep per-student funding flat in real terms [6/6]
June 9, 2025 at 1:31 PM
We haven’t heard anything about the plans for college spending. As a reminder, pupil numbers are rising in FE and sixth forms – so the government would need to find £300m to keep per-student funding flat in real terms [6/6]
Day-to-day schools budget is about £65bn in 2025-26. Keeping that constant in real-terms costs just under £4bn in cash-terms by 2028-29
That would increase spending per pupil by about 3% compared with today, since pupil numbers are expected to fall [2/6]
ifs.org.uk/publications...
That would increase spending per pupil by about 3% compared with today, since pupil numbers are expected to fall [2/6]
ifs.org.uk/publications...
June 9, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Day-to-day schools budget is about £65bn in 2025-26. Keeping that constant in real-terms costs just under £4bn in cash-terms by 2028-29
That would increase spending per pupil by about 3% compared with today, since pupil numbers are expected to fall [2/6]
ifs.org.uk/publications...
That would increase spending per pupil by about 3% compared with today, since pupil numbers are expected to fall [2/6]
ifs.org.uk/publications...
I'm SOOO excited about the tour coming to Wales, I'd like to propose a route:
Builth to Cardiff via Devil's Staircase, Llyn Brianne, Black Mountain, Rhigos, Treorchy High Street (imagine it), passing through home towns of Max Boyce and Tom Jones, Caerphilly Mountain and a sprint finish at the bay
Builth to Cardiff via Devil's Staircase, Llyn Brianne, Black Mountain, Rhigos, Treorchy High Street (imagine it), passing through home towns of Max Boyce and Tom Jones, Caerphilly Mountain and a sprint finish at the bay
March 20, 2025 at 10:30 AM
I'm SOOO excited about the tour coming to Wales, I'd like to propose a route:
Builth to Cardiff via Devil's Staircase, Llyn Brianne, Black Mountain, Rhigos, Treorchy High Street (imagine it), passing through home towns of Max Boyce and Tom Jones, Caerphilly Mountain and a sprint finish at the bay
Builth to Cardiff via Devil's Staircase, Llyn Brianne, Black Mountain, Rhigos, Treorchy High Street (imagine it), passing through home towns of Max Boyce and Tom Jones, Caerphilly Mountain and a sprint finish at the bay
As is noted by the study:
February 5, 2025 at 10:38 AM
As is noted by the study:
Differences in spending by age and stage of education of education have massively narrowed over time
I wouldn't bet against a further narrowing
A planned £4bn increase to early years spending and likely cuts to other stages of education will probably already have this effect
I wouldn't bet against a further narrowing
A planned £4bn increase to early years spending and likely cuts to other stages of education will probably already have this effect
January 8, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Differences in spending by age and stage of education of education have massively narrowed over time
I wouldn't bet against a further narrowing
A planned £4bn increase to early years spending and likely cuts to other stages of education will probably already have this effect
I wouldn't bet against a further narrowing
A planned £4bn increase to early years spending and likely cuts to other stages of education will probably already have this effect
I am always super proud of this graph showing spending per pupil across different stages of education in England over time (from our latest annual report on education spending)
It shows a massive amount of information of how public spending priorities have changed over time
It shows a massive amount of information of how public spending priorities have changed over time
January 8, 2025 at 3:22 PM
I am always super proud of this graph showing spending per pupil across different stages of education in England over time (from our latest annual report on education spending)
It shows a massive amount of information of how public spending priorities have changed over time
It shows a massive amount of information of how public spending priorities have changed over time
On HE, the recent increase in tuition fees arrests the long-run real-terms decline in per-student funding
But its only a brief reprieve as universities face pressure from national insurance rises and falling international student numbers.
[6/6]
But its only a brief reprieve as universities face pressure from national insurance rises and falling international student numbers.
[6/6]
January 8, 2025 at 2:14 PM
On HE, the recent increase in tuition fees arrests the long-run real-terms decline in per-student funding
But its only a brief reprieve as universities face pressure from national insurance rises and falling international student numbers.
[6/6]
But its only a brief reprieve as universities face pressure from national insurance rises and falling international student numbers.
[6/6]
On colleges, spending per student is still 11% below 2010 levels and student numbers are rising
Freezing spending per student would cost £200m extra in 2027
Freezing spending in real-terms would lead to a further 4% cut over the next 2 years
[5/6]
Freezing spending per student would cost £200m extra in 2027
Freezing spending in real-terms would lead to a further 4% cut over the next 2 years
[5/6]
January 8, 2025 at 2:14 PM
On colleges, spending per student is still 11% below 2010 levels and student numbers are rising
Freezing spending per student would cost £200m extra in 2027
Freezing spending in real-terms would lead to a further 4% cut over the next 2 years
[5/6]
Freezing spending per student would cost £200m extra in 2027
Freezing spending in real-terms would lead to a further 4% cut over the next 2 years
[5/6]
On schools, falling pupil numbers mean the government could save £1.2 bn in 2027 by freezing spending per pupil in real-terms
However, spending on special educational needs is forecast to rise by £2bn and is largely governed by legal duties. This wipes out most opportunities for savings
[4/6]
However, spending on special educational needs is forecast to rise by £2bn and is largely governed by legal duties. This wipes out most opportunities for savings
[4/6]
January 8, 2025 at 2:14 PM
On schools, falling pupil numbers mean the government could save £1.2 bn in 2027 by freezing spending per pupil in real-terms
However, spending on special educational needs is forecast to rise by £2bn and is largely governed by legal duties. This wipes out most opportunities for savings
[4/6]
However, spending on special educational needs is forecast to rise by £2bn and is largely governed by legal duties. This wipes out most opportunities for savings
[4/6]
On the early years, the government has already chosen to continue implementation of the £4bn expansion of the early years entitlement
This largest ever boost will mainly have the effect of reducing childcare bills for working families
[3/6]
This largest ever boost will mainly have the effect of reducing childcare bills for working families
[3/6]
January 8, 2025 at 2:14 PM
On the early years, the government has already chosen to continue implementation of the £4bn expansion of the early years entitlement
This largest ever boost will mainly have the effect of reducing childcare bills for working families
[3/6]
This largest ever boost will mainly have the effect of reducing childcare bills for working families
[3/6]
The overall context is pretty difficult. Current spending plans imply that most departments (outside health and defence) will be asked to cuts of 1-2% after 2025
And recent increases in borrowing costs might be making this picture even more difficult
[2/6]
And recent increases in borrowing costs might be making this picture even more difficult
[2/6]
January 8, 2025 at 2:14 PM
The overall context is pretty difficult. Current spending plans imply that most departments (outside health and defence) will be asked to cuts of 1-2% after 2025
And recent increases in borrowing costs might be making this picture even more difficult
[2/6]
And recent increases in borrowing costs might be making this picture even more difficult
[2/6]
The changing level and patterns of social, emotional and mental health needs across areas between 2016 and 2024
December 10, 2024 at 3:03 PM
The changing level and patterns of social, emotional and mental health needs across areas between 2016 and 2024