Luke Sibieta
@lukesibieta.bsky.social
Research Fellow at IFS and EPI, independent consultant, posts about about school funding, education, inequalities and cycling
On Wednesday, we learned that SEND spending is growing much faster than expected, with 14% real-terms growth this year alone.
Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028
1. Slow the growth in SEND spending
2. Top up the schools budget
3. Reduce mainstream school budgets
🧵
Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028
1. Slow the growth in SEND spending
2. Top up the schools budget
3. Reduce mainstream school budgets
🧵
November 28, 2025 at 8:08 AM
On Wednesday, we learned that SEND spending is growing much faster than expected, with 14% real-terms growth this year alone.
Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028
1. Slow the growth in SEND spending
2. Top up the schools budget
3. Reduce mainstream school budgets
🧵
Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028
1. Slow the growth in SEND spending
2. Top up the schools budget
3. Reduce mainstream school budgets
🧵
Always a pleasure to come to the #r4today studio. This time to talk about the challenges facing the government on special educational needs spending.
November 28, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Always a pleasure to come to the #r4today studio. This time to talk about the challenges facing the government on special educational needs spending.
Reposted by Luke Sibieta
Good news: We now have a forecast for SEND spending, rather than flying blind.
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
November 27, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Good news: We now have a forecast for SEND spending, rather than flying blind.
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year.
@theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025
Based on provisional outturns, the OBR expects spending on SEND will grow by over £2 billion or 17% in cash-terms in 2025-26
That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected
@theifs.bsky.social
That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected
@theifs.bsky.social
November 26, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Based on provisional outturns, the OBR expects spending on SEND will grow by over £2 billion or 17% in cash-terms in 2025-26
That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected
@theifs.bsky.social
That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected
@theifs.bsky.social
Reposted by Luke Sibieta
Best followed up with this FT podcast with
@timleunig.bsky.social who has a nice example of why zero-rating things like food and children's clothing isn't a particularly effective way of supporting poorer households
www.ft.com/content/33d7...
@timleunig.bsky.social who has a nice example of why zero-rating things like food and children's clothing isn't a particularly effective way of supporting poorer households
www.ft.com/content/33d7...
November 7, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Best followed up with this FT podcast with
@timleunig.bsky.social who has a nice example of why zero-rating things like food and children's clothing isn't a particularly effective way of supporting poorer households
www.ft.com/content/33d7...
@timleunig.bsky.social who has a nice example of why zero-rating things like food and children's clothing isn't a particularly effective way of supporting poorer households
www.ft.com/content/33d7...
Reposted by Luke Sibieta
📗 Read @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, on support for children with disabilities and special educational needs here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Support for children with disabilities and special educational needs | Institute for Fiscal Studies
How do trends, demographics and outcomes of children receiving support for health conditions compare across the benefits and education systems?
ifs.org.uk
October 4, 2025 at 8:00 AM
📗 Read @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, on support for children with disabilities and special educational needs here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029
This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO
If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]
This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO
If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]
October 3, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029
This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO
If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]
This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO
If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]
Today, we published a new @theifs.bsky.social Green Budget chapter on children with special educational needs & disability support, which is joint work with colleagues @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Darcey Snape
I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]
I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]
NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016.
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:
October 3, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Today, we published a new @theifs.bsky.social Green Budget chapter on children with special educational needs & disability support, which is joint work with colleagues @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Darcey Snape
I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]
I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]
Some good news. Plans to drop triple science as GCSE options in Wales have been postponed till at least 2031 (pending further consultation)
The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me
qualifications.wales/news-views/f...
The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me
qualifications.wales/news-views/f...
Further consultation planned on GCSE science | Qualifications Wales
Qualifications Wales has announced that a new consultation on GCSE science will take place in 2028.
qualifications.wales
September 16, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Some good news. Plans to drop triple science as GCSE options in Wales have been postponed till at least 2031 (pending further consultation)
The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me
qualifications.wales/news-views/f...
The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me
qualifications.wales/news-views/f...
Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6]
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
September 12, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6]
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...
Faced with aggressive cancer, my friend decided to end his life in Switzerland almost exactly a year ago
I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK
These are his words. He always wrote beautifully
I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK
These are his words. He always wrote beautifully
June 20, 2025 at 6:42 AM
Faced with aggressive cancer, my friend decided to end his life in Switzerland almost exactly a year ago
I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK
These are his words. He always wrote beautifully
I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK
These are his words. He always wrote beautifully
Surprise, surprise @samfr.bsky.social
The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago
The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago
June 11, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Surprise, surprise @samfr.bsky.social
The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago
The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago
What does £4.5 billion extra for schools in England mean?
My guess is that this is a real-terms freeze in the core schools budget plus some extra money for free school meals
This thread explains why 🧵[1/6]
observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
@theifs.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org
My guess is that this is a real-terms freeze in the core schools budget plus some extra money for free school meals
This thread explains why 🧵[1/6]
observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
@theifs.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org
Surprise extra £4.5bn for schools as Reeves goes to wire ...
More money for SEND reforms and teachers’ pay while health and defence are big winners in spending review
observer.co.uk
June 9, 2025 at 1:31 PM
What does £4.5 billion extra for schools in England mean?
My guess is that this is a real-terms freeze in the core schools budget plus some extra money for free school meals
This thread explains why 🧵[1/6]
observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
@theifs.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org
My guess is that this is a real-terms freeze in the core schools budget plus some extra money for free school meals
This thread explains why 🧵[1/6]
observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
@theifs.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org
Schools can probably afford 2% teacher pay rises from within existing budgets
Govt proposals for 2.8% assumed schools could make efficiency savings of £300m
Going to 4% would add a further £400m to school costs on top of that
Govt proposals for 2.8% assumed schools could make efficiency savings of £300m
Going to 4% would add a further £400m to school costs on top of that
The Times: Reeves faces pay demand for teachers
and nurses #TomorrowsPapersToday
and nurses #TomorrowsPapersToday
April 28, 2025 at 6:02 AM
Schools can probably afford 2% teacher pay rises from within existing budgets
Govt proposals for 2.8% assumed schools could make efficiency savings of £300m
Going to 4% would add a further £400m to school costs on top of that
Govt proposals for 2.8% assumed schools could make efficiency savings of £300m
Going to 4% would add a further £400m to school costs on top of that
Reposted by Luke Sibieta
The government's borrowing rule (the ‘stability rule’) is being met by £9.9 billion in 2029/30, the *exact* same amount as last October. Nothing special about that number. Implies that policy is being fine-tuned in pursuit of an arbitrary number for ‘fiscal headroom’. Chasing the model.
March 26, 2025 at 12:43 PM
The government's borrowing rule (the ‘stability rule’) is being met by £9.9 billion in 2029/30, the *exact* same amount as last October. Nothing special about that number. Implies that policy is being fine-tuned in pursuit of an arbitrary number for ‘fiscal headroom’. Chasing the model.
I would strongly recommend this documentary about Jasmine Paris. It’s just a fantastic account of one person’s battle to achieve the seemingly impossible. And the joys of running in the wilderness
Would even recommend to non-runners!
youtu.be/PgTEsybXw-4?...
Would even recommend to non-runners!
youtu.be/PgTEsybXw-4?...
The Finisher: Jasmin Paris and the Barkley Marathons (Full Documentary)
YouTube video by Singletrack
youtu.be
March 25, 2025 at 9:41 AM
I would strongly recommend this documentary about Jasmine Paris. It’s just a fantastic account of one person’s battle to achieve the seemingly impossible. And the joys of running in the wilderness
Would even recommend to non-runners!
youtu.be/PgTEsybXw-4?...
Would even recommend to non-runners!
youtu.be/PgTEsybXw-4?...
I'm SOOO excited about the tour coming to Wales, I'd like to propose a route:
Builth to Cardiff via Devil's Staircase, Llyn Brianne, Black Mountain, Rhigos, Treorchy High Street (imagine it), passing through home towns of Max Boyce and Tom Jones, Caerphilly Mountain and a sprint finish at the bay
Builth to Cardiff via Devil's Staircase, Llyn Brianne, Black Mountain, Rhigos, Treorchy High Street (imagine it), passing through home towns of Max Boyce and Tom Jones, Caerphilly Mountain and a sprint finish at the bay
March 20, 2025 at 10:30 AM
I'm SOOO excited about the tour coming to Wales, I'd like to propose a route:
Builth to Cardiff via Devil's Staircase, Llyn Brianne, Black Mountain, Rhigos, Treorchy High Street (imagine it), passing through home towns of Max Boyce and Tom Jones, Caerphilly Mountain and a sprint finish at the bay
Builth to Cardiff via Devil's Staircase, Llyn Brianne, Black Mountain, Rhigos, Treorchy High Street (imagine it), passing through home towns of Max Boyce and Tom Jones, Caerphilly Mountain and a sprint finish at the bay
Such an eloquent and moving account by a young person on the immense challenges of homelessness as a child
Llongyfarchiadau Mia 👏
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Llongyfarchiadau Mia 👏
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Homelessness: I sat my GCSEs while living in a hotel temporarily
Mia and her siblings lived in temporary accommodation for 18 months after a no fault eviction.
www.bbc.co.uk
March 19, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Such an eloquent and moving account by a young person on the immense challenges of homelessness as a child
Llongyfarchiadau Mia 👏
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Llongyfarchiadau Mia 👏
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Very proud that my eye-catching headline from this podcast is:
"The truth is probably a bit more boring"
Thoroughly enjoyable chat with @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social & @missmc.bsky.social
"The truth is probably a bit more boring"
Thoroughly enjoyable chat with @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social & @missmc.bsky.social
"The truth is probably a bit more boring."
@lukesibieta.bsky.social on the contradictory noise around the Schools Bill and school performance in England, from our latest podcast.
🎧 Listen to the episode here: ifs.org.uk/articles/sch...
@lukesibieta.bsky.social on the contradictory noise around the Schools Bill and school performance in England, from our latest podcast.
🎧 Listen to the episode here: ifs.org.uk/articles/sch...
March 17, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Very proud that my eye-catching headline from this podcast is:
"The truth is probably a bit more boring"
Thoroughly enjoyable chat with @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social & @missmc.bsky.social
"The truth is probably a bit more boring"
Thoroughly enjoyable chat with @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social & @missmc.bsky.social
With the schools bill in the news, we cut through the noise on @theifs.bsky.social podcast
- School performance in England has been ok for last 15 years, but lots of inequalities
- Main effect will be making all schools follow new national curriculum
- Uncertainty on what happens to failing schools
- School performance in England has been ok for last 15 years, but lots of inequalities
- Main effect will be making all schools follow new national curriculum
- Uncertainty on what happens to failing schools
"The truth is probably a bit more boring."
@lukesibieta.bsky.social on the contradictory noise around the Schools Bill and school performance in England, from our latest podcast.
🎧 Listen to the episode here: ifs.org.uk/articles/sch...
@lukesibieta.bsky.social on the contradictory noise around the Schools Bill and school performance in England, from our latest podcast.
🎧 Listen to the episode here: ifs.org.uk/articles/sch...
March 17, 2025 at 10:01 AM
With the schools bill in the news, we cut through the noise on @theifs.bsky.social podcast
- School performance in England has been ok for last 15 years, but lots of inequalities
- Main effect will be making all schools follow new national curriculum
- Uncertainty on what happens to failing schools
- School performance in England has been ok for last 15 years, but lots of inequalities
- Main effect will be making all schools follow new national curriculum
- Uncertainty on what happens to failing schools
Reposted by Luke Sibieta
Wide-ranging podcast, this one. Super edu nerd @lukesibieta.bsky.social and I geek out on everything from breakfast clubs, to Ofsted, to baby doom, including an awkward stat about academies at the end & a desperate plea from me on housing and dentistry.
"The schools are doing alright, but are the kids?"
@missmc.bsky.social on the wellbeing of children, from our podcast on The Schools Bill.
🎧 Listen to the episode: ifs.org.uk/articles/sch...
@missmc.bsky.social on the wellbeing of children, from our podcast on The Schools Bill.
🎧 Listen to the episode: ifs.org.uk/articles/sch...
March 12, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Wide-ranging podcast, this one. Super edu nerd @lukesibieta.bsky.social and I geek out on everything from breakfast clubs, to Ofsted, to baby doom, including an awkward stat about academies at the end & a desperate plea from me on housing and dentistry.
It was a delight to discuss schools with @missmc.bsky.social & @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social on @theifs.bsky.social zooms in podcast.
I'm just disappointed we didn't manage to quite segway into a chat about Rab Butler and the 1944 act
I'm just disappointed we didn't manage to quite segway into a chat about Rab Butler and the 1944 act
"The schools are doing alright, but are the kids?"
@missmc.bsky.social on the wellbeing of children, from our podcast on The Schools Bill.
🎧 Listen to the episode: ifs.org.uk/articles/sch...
@missmc.bsky.social on the wellbeing of children, from our podcast on The Schools Bill.
🎧 Listen to the episode: ifs.org.uk/articles/sch...
March 13, 2025 at 10:25 AM
It was a delight to discuss schools with @missmc.bsky.social & @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social on @theifs.bsky.social zooms in podcast.
I'm just disappointed we didn't manage to quite segway into a chat about Rab Butler and the 1944 act
I'm just disappointed we didn't manage to quite segway into a chat about Rab Butler and the 1944 act
Worth noting that these news stories on mobile phones are based on CORRELATIONS between school policy & mental health
This evidence cannot be used to conclude that school phone bans do or do not causally affect grades or health.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
This evidence cannot be used to conclude that school phone bans do or do not causally affect grades or health.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Phone bans in schools don't help grades or health, study suggests
It is the first study to look at school phone rules, alongside measures of pupil health and education.
www.bbc.co.uk
February 5, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Worth noting that these news stories on mobile phones are based on CORRELATIONS between school policy & mental health
This evidence cannot be used to conclude that school phone bans do or do not causally affect grades or health.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
This evidence cannot be used to conclude that school phone bans do or do not causally affect grades or health.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Today is the 50th anniversary of the famous Köln concert when Keith Jarrett played the unplayable piano to deliver one of the most amazing and unique piano performances of all time
I’ll be listening tonight with a glass of wine, I recommend you do too
open.spotify.com/album/0I8vpS...
I’ll be listening tonight with a glass of wine, I recommend you do too
open.spotify.com/album/0I8vpS...
The Köln Concert
Keith Jarrett · Album · 1975 · 4 songs
open.spotify.com
January 24, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Today is the 50th anniversary of the famous Köln concert when Keith Jarrett played the unplayable piano to deliver one of the most amazing and unique piano performances of all time
I’ll be listening tonight with a glass of wine, I recommend you do too
open.spotify.com/album/0I8vpS...
I’ll be listening tonight with a glass of wine, I recommend you do too
open.spotify.com/album/0I8vpS...