Lucas Holtz
@lucasholtz.bsky.social
Political at Third Way. UCLA grad. Former: Lincoln Project. Distractions include cycling, running, arguing, and lots of Daisy 🐶
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
• Prices from today's announcement alone rise by 1.3%, a loss in purchasing power of $2,100 per household annually in 2024$ on average. All 2025 tariffs raise prices by 2.3%, a $3,800 average loss.
• The April 2nd announcement shaves -0.5pp off 2025 GDP real growth (cont.)
2/7
• The April 2nd announcement shaves -0.5pp off 2025 GDP real growth (cont.)
2/7
April 3, 2025 at 2:43 AM
• Prices from today's announcement alone rise by 1.3%, a loss in purchasing power of $2,100 per household annually in 2024$ on average. All 2025 tariffs raise prices by 2.3%, a $3,800 average loss.
• The April 2nd announcement shaves -0.5pp off 2025 GDP real growth (cont.)
2/7
• The April 2nd announcement shaves -0.5pp off 2025 GDP real growth (cont.)
2/7
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
Another entry in "sometimes poll findings are extremely wording sensitive, and sometimes there's a very clear throughline in sentiment regardless of phrasing"
(Via: www.cnn.com/2025/03/16/p..., www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...)
(Via: www.cnn.com/2025/03/16/p..., www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...)
March 16, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Another entry in "sometimes poll findings are extremely wording sensitive, and sometimes there's a very clear throughline in sentiment regardless of phrasing"
(Via: www.cnn.com/2025/03/16/p..., www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...)
(Via: www.cnn.com/2025/03/16/p..., www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...)
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
Trump and Musk have cut vital programs at the VA, leaving many veterans in crisis abandoned. Our veterans answered the call, but now nobody will answer theirs.
Hotline
YouTube video by The Lincoln Project
www.youtube.com
March 10, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Trump and Musk have cut vital programs at the VA, leaving many veterans in crisis abandoned. Our veterans answered the call, but now nobody will answer theirs.
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
Maybe X is running on Tesla batteries.
March 10, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Maybe X is running on Tesla batteries.
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
This is very obviously going to be a protection racket, where Trump can at the stroke of a pen destroy or save your business depending on how compliant you are.
Exempting USMCA-compliant auto imports from tariffs would lessen the impact of Trump's trade war, sparing ~$122B in imports (~$170B if parts are exempted)
But it just highlights the ridiculousness of this whole endeavor—why exempt cars but not oil, tomatoes, computers, etc etc?
But it just highlights the ridiculousness of this whole endeavor—why exempt cars but not oil, tomatoes, computers, etc etc?
March 5, 2025 at 7:58 PM
This is very obviously going to be a protection racket, where Trump can at the stroke of a pen destroy or save your business depending on how compliant you are.
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
Ronald Reagan: Peace through strength
Donald Trump: Peace through surrender
Donald Trump: Peace through surrender
March 1, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Ronald Reagan: Peace through strength
Donald Trump: Peace through surrender
Donald Trump: Peace through surrender
Let’s break this down
- Trump & Vance lie about the war
- Zelensky tries to fact check
Vance wants to look like a tough guy so he:
- lies about Putin’s invasion painting him as a victim
- lies about Ukraine war ops
- lies that Zelensky hasn’t thanked US for aid (he has 1000x)
- Trump & Vance lie about the war
- Zelensky tries to fact check
Vance wants to look like a tough guy so he:
- lies about Putin’s invasion painting him as a victim
- lies about Ukraine war ops
- lies that Zelensky hasn’t thanked US for aid (he has 1000x)
ZELENSKYY: Putin broke the ceasefire. What kind of diplomacy, JD, are you speaking about?
VANCE: I think it's disrespectful to come into the Oval Office and try to litigate this in front of the American media
VANCE: I think it's disrespectful to come into the Oval Office and try to litigate this in front of the American media
February 28, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Let’s break this down
- Trump & Vance lie about the war
- Zelensky tries to fact check
Vance wants to look like a tough guy so he:
- lies about Putin’s invasion painting him as a victim
- lies about Ukraine war ops
- lies that Zelensky hasn’t thanked US for aid (he has 1000x)
- Trump & Vance lie about the war
- Zelensky tries to fact check
Vance wants to look like a tough guy so he:
- lies about Putin’s invasion painting him as a victim
- lies about Ukraine war ops
- lies that Zelensky hasn’t thanked US for aid (he has 1000x)
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
Bears repeating that social security is incredibly INCREDIBLY efficient to run. Its overhead costs are basically zero when you consider the size of the undertaking and the genuine benefits delivered. If anyone was interested in improving govt efficiency, the SSA would be their model not their target
Just some general guidance here. We don't know all the details. But this presages taking a real hatchet to the whole social security system. Whether it's 20% of the staff or 50% who knows. But basically unsustainable cuts for a program anyway we've known it.
Here's the memo that went out short time ago from SSA HR announcing "organizational restructuring" of Social Security admin. essentially one last chance to quit before you're all fired. talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/memo-...
February 28, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Bears repeating that social security is incredibly INCREDIBLY efficient to run. Its overhead costs are basically zero when you consider the size of the undertaking and the genuine benefits delivered. If anyone was interested in improving govt efficiency, the SSA would be their model not their target
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
People’s reactions to these stories tend to be of the leopards-eating-faces variety but this is a great piece of reporting in part about how voters very disconnected from politics make their choices.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
She hoped Trump’s victory would change her life, but not like this
Ryleigh Cooper is normally more focused on motherhood than politics. Then came DOGE.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 27, 2025 at 1:48 PM
People’s reactions to these stories tend to be of the leopards-eating-faces variety but this is a great piece of reporting in part about how voters very disconnected from politics make their choices.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
Q: how to 6x DOGE savings ($2.5b)?
A: Cut subsidies to Tesla ($15b)
A: Cut subsidies to Tesla ($15b)
February 26, 2025 at 12:37 AM
Q: how to 6x DOGE savings ($2.5b)?
A: Cut subsidies to Tesla ($15b)
A: Cut subsidies to Tesla ($15b)
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
After the first measles death of a child HHS Secretary Kennedy seemed to downplay the Texas outbreak saying outbreaks were "not unusual," and the 18 kids hospitalized were "mainly for quarantine." A pediatrician on the ground said they couldn't breathe. www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...
February 26, 2025 at 6:02 PM
After the first measles death of a child HHS Secretary Kennedy seemed to downplay the Texas outbreak saying outbreaks were "not unusual," and the 18 kids hospitalized were "mainly for quarantine." A pediatrician on the ground said they couldn't breathe. www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...
Reposted by Lucas Holtz
US Senator Ruben Gallegos is having a Sistah Souljah moment with his interview on The Daily podcast today.
Democrats owe him a debt of gratitude.
open.substack.com/pub/greattra...
Democrats owe him a debt of gratitude.
open.substack.com/pub/greattra...
Ruben Gallegos' Sister Soulja moment
Sometimes the most powerful way of saying what you're for means making it clear what you're against.
open.substack.com
February 16, 2025 at 12:22 AM
US Senator Ruben Gallegos is having a Sistah Souljah moment with his interview on The Daily podcast today.
Democrats owe him a debt of gratitude.
open.substack.com/pub/greattra...
Democrats owe him a debt of gratitude.
open.substack.com/pub/greattra...
A conspiracy theorist went on Joe Rogan ranting about dismantling USAID & Musk followed. Musk has RT’d him 160 times in the last year
90% of USAID’s payments go to US businesses and faith-based orgs. The Elon-MAGA agenda is to ransack government and destroy American business
90% of USAID’s payments go to US businesses and faith-based orgs. The Elon-MAGA agenda is to ransack government and destroy American business
Who put USAID on Elon Musk's radar? @sarahellison.bsky.social and I found that Musk only began posting about the agency after right-wing influencer Mike Benz appeared on Joe Rogan, calling the organization a CIA front. More: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com
February 7, 2025 at 4:05 PM
A conspiracy theorist went on Joe Rogan ranting about dismantling USAID & Musk followed. Musk has RT’d him 160 times in the last year
90% of USAID’s payments go to US businesses and faith-based orgs. The Elon-MAGA agenda is to ransack government and destroy American business
90% of USAID’s payments go to US businesses and faith-based orgs. The Elon-MAGA agenda is to ransack government and destroy American business