LSHTM TB Modelling Group
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social
Updates from the TB Modelling Group, a multidisciplinary group of mathematical modellers, economists, and epidemiologists from LSHTM
Our Editor’s Choice commentary in @cidjournal.bsky.social finds that reported TB symptoms are an inadequate classifier of disease state, as they are heavily influenced by context and substantial interviewer variability, and may have alternative causes.
Read more here👇🏻
doi.org/10.1093/cid/...
Read more here👇🏻
doi.org/10.1093/cid/...
Validate User
doi.org
December 16, 2025 at 4:45 AM
Our Editor’s Choice commentary in @cidjournal.bsky.social finds that reported TB symptoms are an inadequate classifier of disease state, as they are heavily influenced by context and substantial interviewer variability, and may have alternative causes.
Read more here👇🏻
doi.org/10.1093/cid/...
Read more here👇🏻
doi.org/10.1093/cid/...
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social is offering multiple PhD opportunities through MRC LID, deadline 14 Jan. More details: mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/applicants/
Projects include
#1 TB & screening
#2 TB & climate change
#3 TB & vaccines
#4 TB & influenza
#5 TB & prevention
@cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social
Projects include
#1 TB & screening
#2 TB & climate change
#3 TB & vaccines
#4 TB & influenza
#5 TB & prevention
@cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social
Information for applicants - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships
MRC LID studentship information for applicants How to Apply Projects Studentship funding Studentship options Studentship...
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk
November 18, 2025 at 2:49 PM
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social is offering multiple PhD opportunities through MRC LID, deadline 14 Jan. More details: mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/applicants/
Projects include
#1 TB & screening
#2 TB & climate change
#3 TB & vaccines
#4 TB & influenza
#5 TB & prevention
@cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social
Projects include
#1 TB & screening
#2 TB & climate change
#3 TB & vaccines
#4 TB & influenza
#5 TB & prevention
@cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
Another successful "Intro to TB Modelling" course in Copenhagen at #WLHC2025. Over 70 joined to learn about TB modelling!
Followed by the now-traditional TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium social, which was also very well-attended and a lot of fun.
Followed by the now-traditional TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium social, which was also very well-attended and a lot of fun.
November 24, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Another successful "Intro to TB Modelling" course in Copenhagen at #WLHC2025. Over 70 joined to learn about TB modelling!
Followed by the now-traditional TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium social, which was also very well-attended and a lot of fun.
Followed by the now-traditional TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium social, which was also very well-attended and a lot of fun.
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
#5 Mathematical modelling and clinical trial simulation of TB prevention
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with Tom Sumner, @raclark18.bsky.social & @danieljgrint.bsky.social
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with Tom Sumner, @raclark18.bsky.social & @danieljgrint.bsky.social
2026-27 Project (Sumner & Clark & Grint) - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships
Mathematical modelling and clinical trial simulation of TB prevention SUPERVISORY TEAM Supervisor Dr Tom Sumner...
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk
November 18, 2025 at 2:49 PM
#5 Mathematical modelling and clinical trial simulation of TB prevention
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with Tom Sumner, @raclark18.bsky.social & @danieljgrint.bsky.social
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with Tom Sumner, @raclark18.bsky.social & @danieljgrint.bsky.social
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
#4 Investigating the effect of influenza on risk of tuberculosis in South Africa
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with Pally Khan, Nicky McCreesh & Tom Sumner
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with Pally Khan, Nicky McCreesh & Tom Sumner
2026-27 Project (Khan & McCreesh & Sumner) - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships
Investigating the effect of influenza on risk of tuberculosis in South Africa SUPERVISORY TEAM Supervisor...
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk
November 18, 2025 at 2:49 PM
#4 Investigating the effect of influenza on risk of tuberculosis in South Africa
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with Pally Khan, Nicky McCreesh & Tom Sumner
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with Pally Khan, Nicky McCreesh & Tom Sumner
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
#3 How should countries deliver new TB vaccines when risk factors are considered?
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with @raclark18.bsky.social & @richardwhite321.bsky.social
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with @raclark18.bsky.social & @richardwhite321.bsky.social
2026-27 Project (Clark & White) - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships
How should countries deliver new TB vaccines when risk factors are considered? SUPERVISORY TEAM Supervisor...
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk
November 18, 2025 at 2:49 PM
#3 How should countries deliver new TB vaccines when risk factors are considered?
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with @raclark18.bsky.social & @richardwhite321.bsky.social
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with @raclark18.bsky.social & @richardwhite321.bsky.social
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
#2 Epidemiological modelling of the impact and mitigation of climate change on tuberculosis
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with myself, @mjsaunder.bsky.social & Helen Stagg
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with myself, @mjsaunder.bsky.social & Helen Stagg
2026-27 Project (McQuaid & Saunders & Stagg) - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships
Epidemiological modelling of the impact and mitigation of climate change on tuberculosis SUPERVISORY TEAM Supervisor...
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk
November 18, 2025 at 2:49 PM
#2 Epidemiological modelling of the impact and mitigation of climate change on tuberculosis
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with myself, @mjsaunder.bsky.social & Helen Stagg
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with myself, @mjsaunder.bsky.social & Helen Stagg
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
#1 Epidemiological impact of heterogeneity in community screening for tuberculosis
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with @kchorton.bsky.social & @reinhouben.bsky.social
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with @kchorton.bsky.social & @reinhouben.bsky.social
2026-27 Project (Horton & Houben) - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships
Epidemiological impact of heterogeneity in community screening for tuberculosis SUPERVISORY TEAM Supervisor Dr Katherine Horton...
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk
November 18, 2025 at 2:49 PM
#1 Epidemiological impact of heterogeneity in community screening for tuberculosis
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with @kchorton.bsky.social & @reinhouben.bsky.social
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
with @kchorton.bsky.social & @reinhouben.bsky.social
Come join us for a PhD in the TB Modelling Group!
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social is offering multiple PhD opportunities through MRC LID, deadline 14 Jan. More details: mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/applicants/
Projects include
#1 TB & screening
#2 TB & climate change
#3 TB & vaccines
#4 TB & influenza
#5 TB & prevention
@cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social
Projects include
#1 TB & screening
#2 TB & climate change
#3 TB & vaccines
#4 TB & influenza
#5 TB & prevention
@cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social
Information for applicants - MRC London Intercollegiate Doctoral Training Partnership Studentships
MRC LID studentship information for applicants How to Apply Projects Studentship funding Studentship options Studentship...
mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk
November 19, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Come join us for a PhD in the TB Modelling Group!
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
Perhaps the most important collaboration at #UnionConf2025?
WHO STOP TB’s Hello Kitty met the LSHTM TB Modelling Group’s bunny mascot “Bugs” today 🐰
Shout out to @stoptb.bsky.social and @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social for making TB epidemiology both rigorous and accessible. #EndTB #WCLH2025
WHO STOP TB’s Hello Kitty met the LSHTM TB Modelling Group’s bunny mascot “Bugs” today 🐰
Shout out to @stoptb.bsky.social and @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social for making TB epidemiology both rigorous and accessible. #EndTB #WCLH2025
November 18, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Perhaps the most important collaboration at #UnionConf2025?
WHO STOP TB’s Hello Kitty met the LSHTM TB Modelling Group’s bunny mascot “Bugs” today 🐰
Shout out to @stoptb.bsky.social and @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social for making TB epidemiology both rigorous and accessible. #EndTB #WCLH2025
WHO STOP TB’s Hello Kitty met the LSHTM TB Modelling Group’s bunny mascot “Bugs” today 🐰
Shout out to @stoptb.bsky.social and @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social for making TB epidemiology both rigorous and accessible. #EndTB #WCLH2025
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
What’s a #UnionConf without the TB modelling course? Packed room again for a long day of intro to modelling.
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-mac.bsky.social #WCLH2025 #TBSky
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-mac.bsky.social #WCLH2025 #TBSky
November 18, 2025 at 10:28 AM
What’s a #UnionConf without the TB modelling course? Packed room again for a long day of intro to modelling.
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-mac.bsky.social #WCLH2025 #TBSky
@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-mac.bsky.social #WCLH2025 #TBSky
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
Interested in #TB, equity, and modelling? @reinhouben.bsky.social and I are advertising an MRC LID studentship on heterogeneity in the coverage of community screening for TB @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social.
For more details, visit mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
For more details, visit mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
November 11, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Interested in #TB, equity, and modelling? @reinhouben.bsky.social and I are advertising an MRC LID studentship on heterogeneity in the coverage of community screening for TB @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social.
For more details, visit mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
For more details, visit mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
Our framework that informed the @who.int TB & climate change policy brief out now in @lancetrespirmed.bsky.social, exploring the intersections and implications of climate change for the TB epidemic. Key message? TB should be considered a climate-sensitive disease
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Climate change and tuberculosis: an analytical framework
Climate change is likely to exacerbate a range of determinants that drive tuberculosis,
the world's leading cause of death from a single infectious agent. However, tuberculosis
is often neglected in w...
www.thelancet.com
October 31, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Our framework that informed the @who.int TB & climate change policy brief out now in @lancetrespirmed.bsky.social, exploring the intersections and implications of climate change for the TB epidemic. Key message? TB should be considered a climate-sensitive disease
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
“Wow, I saw in the last GTB report undernutrition is much less important for TB than we previously thought” I hear you say…
Well, no. We think this is an underestimate, & as much as 28% of TB could be attributable to undernutrition – see our latest comment here: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Well, no. We think this is an underestimate, & as much as 28% of TB could be attributable to undernutrition – see our latest comment here: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Tuberculosis and undernutrition: improving estimates to reinforce the policy imperative
Undernutrition is a key driver of the global tuberculosis epidemic, increasing the
risk of people developing tuberculosis disease and of poor outcomes in those who do.1
Each year, WHO publishes estima...
www.thelancet.com
October 28, 2025 at 9:44 AM
“Wow, I saw in the last GTB report undernutrition is much less important for TB than we previously thought” I hear you say…
Well, no. We think this is an underestimate, & as much as 28% of TB could be attributable to undernutrition – see our latest comment here: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Well, no. We think this is an underestimate, & as much as 28% of TB could be attributable to undernutrition – see our latest comment here: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
When fluoroquinolone resistance status is unknown, empirical use of BPaLM (adding moxifloxacin to BPaL) is cost-effective as a replacement for BPaL even with high fluoroquinolone resistance levels! 🦠💊
doi.org/10.1371/jour...
doi.org/10.1371/jour...
Impact of fluoroquinolone resistance on the cost-effectiveness of empiric treatment for multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis
The WHO recommends the bedaquiline, pretomanid, and linezolid (BPaL) regimen with the additional fluoroquinolone antibiotic moxifloxacin (BPaLM) for initial treatment of multidrug- or rifampicin-resis...
doi.org
October 20, 2025 at 6:47 PM
When fluoroquinolone resistance status is unknown, empirical use of BPaLM (adding moxifloxacin to BPaL) is cost-effective as a replacement for BPaL even with high fluoroquinolone resistance levels! 🦠💊
doi.org/10.1371/jour...
doi.org/10.1371/jour...
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
Understanding patterns of #TB exposure and transmission is needed for targeted prevention strategies. In our latest pre-print, @petedodd24.bsky.social and I estimated the proportion of TB exposure to and transmission from sex and age groups for 177 countries.
bit.ly/4nbV492
bit.ly/4nbV492
A global analysis of patterns of tuberculosis exposure and transmission
Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health concern and the leading infectious cause of mortality globally. The disease exhibits strong prevalence patterns by age and sex, but the implications of these...
www.medrxiv.org
October 12, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Understanding patterns of #TB exposure and transmission is needed for targeted prevention strategies. In our latest pre-print, @petedodd24.bsky.social and I estimated the proportion of TB exposure to and transmission from sex and age groups for 177 countries.
bit.ly/4nbV492
bit.ly/4nbV492
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
In a new preprint (NOT PEER REVIEWED) we continue to explore the challenge of overtreatment in community screening. It seems the benefits of TB treatment far outweigh the harms, especially once we accept that sputum culture is not perfect. Important food for thought. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Do no harm - re-evaluating the risks of overtreatment in community-wide tuberculosis screening
Background Community-wide screening is a crucial strategy to end tuberculosis (TB), but a common concern is potential harm from overtreatment following false positive diagnoses. However, current refer...
www.medrxiv.org
October 7, 2025 at 9:17 AM
In a new preprint (NOT PEER REVIEWED) we continue to explore the challenge of overtreatment in community screening. It seems the benefits of TB treatment far outweigh the harms, especially once we accept that sputum culture is not perfect. Important food for thought. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
Our work on modelling population-wide screening in Viet Nam is now available in PLOS Global Public Health! tinyurl.com/3ymhuj5s
September 11, 2025 at 3:54 AM
Our work on modelling population-wide screening in Viet Nam is now available in PLOS Global Public Health! tinyurl.com/3ymhuj5s
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
Our systematic review of rural/urban differences in #TB prevalence shows evidence of rapidly urbanising epidemics in many settings, with differences across countries and regions.
Link to preprint below ⬇️
Link to preprint below ⬇️
Are there more people with #TB in cities or rural areas?
In a 🚨new🚨 preprint (NOT PEER REVIEWED) we modelled urban-rural TB trends from 2000-2023 in 26 countries with 4.6 billion people.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
In a 🚨new🚨 preprint (NOT PEER REVIEWED) we modelled urban-rural TB trends from 2000-2023 in 26 countries with 4.6 billion people.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
September 22, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Our systematic review of rural/urban differences in #TB prevalence shows evidence of rapidly urbanising epidemics in many settings, with differences across countries and regions.
Link to preprint below ⬇️
Link to preprint below ⬇️
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
1/ It’s been 10 years (😮) since we reported that #TB prevalence was twice as high in men as in women.
📢 Our new preprint explores how sex differences have shifted with more recent national prevalence surveys and growing attention to #gender responsive TB prevention and care.
bit.ly/4gqP1LH
📢 Our new preprint explores how sex differences have shifted with more recent national prevalence surveys and growing attention to #gender responsive TB prevention and care.
bit.ly/4gqP1LH
Differences in Tuberculosis Prevalence by Sex Over 1993-2024: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: Tuberculosis (TB) prevalence is higher among men than women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, summary measures of sex difference
bit.ly
September 16, 2025 at 11:50 AM
1/ It’s been 10 years (😮) since we reported that #TB prevalence was twice as high in men as in women.
📢 Our new preprint explores how sex differences have shifted with more recent national prevalence surveys and growing attention to #gender responsive TB prevention and care.
bit.ly/4gqP1LH
📢 Our new preprint explores how sex differences have shifted with more recent national prevalence surveys and growing attention to #gender responsive TB prevention and care.
bit.ly/4gqP1LH
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
So...what would happen to the global TB epidemic if we hypothetically "eliminated" undernutrition? In this preprint, we combined estimates from our new review (doi.org/10.1093/ije/...) with population-specific BMI distributions to find out...(doi.org/10.1101/2025...)
Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence averted by eliminating undernutrition in adults: a modelling study
Background Current efforts to reduce global tuberculosis incidence have proved insufficient, highlighting that urgent action is needed to address underlying modifiable risk factors such as undernutrit...
doi.org
September 10, 2025 at 4:11 AM
So...what would happen to the global TB epidemic if we hypothetically "eliminated" undernutrition? In this preprint, we combined estimates from our new review (doi.org/10.1093/ije/...) with population-specific BMI distributions to find out...(doi.org/10.1101/2025...)
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
Nutritional status is a key determinant of TB. In this updated systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis (43 cohorts inc > 26 million people) we redefined the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and TB. doi.org/10.1093/ije/...
Body mass index and tuberculosis risk: an updated systematic literature review and dose–response meta-analysis
AbstractBackground. The relationship between nutritional status and tuberculosis is critically important but poorly understood. We extended a 2009 review c
doi.org
September 9, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Nutritional status is a key determinant of TB. In this updated systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis (43 cohorts inc > 26 million people) we redefined the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and TB. doi.org/10.1093/ije/...
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
At a time when global resources for #TB research, development, prevention, and care are limited, which interventions should be prioritised in high burden settings?
📢 Our new pre-print compares the impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of 9 TB interventions in 3 countries. 1/n
bit.ly/3V3vXth
📢 Our new pre-print compares the impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of 9 TB interventions in 3 countries. 1/n
bit.ly/3V3vXth
The potential impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis interventions - a modelling exercise
Background While a range of interventions exist for tuberculosis prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment, their potential population impact and cost-effectiveness are seldom directly compared,...
bit.ly
September 5, 2025 at 10:05 AM
At a time when global resources for #TB research, development, prevention, and care are limited, which interventions should be prioritised in high burden settings?
📢 Our new pre-print compares the impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of 9 TB interventions in 3 countries. 1/n
bit.ly/3V3vXth
📢 Our new pre-print compares the impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of 9 TB interventions in 3 countries. 1/n
bit.ly/3V3vXth
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
Community screening for #tuberculosis could extend the reach of #TB services, but evidence on its effectiveness is limited.
In our latest preprint, we examine the epidemiological impact of trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of screening. 1/n
bit.ly/3UK7pFD
In our latest preprint, we examine the epidemiological impact of trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of screening. 1/n
bit.ly/3UK7pFD
Exploring trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of community screening for tuberculosis
Background Current tuberculosis (TB) prevention and care strategies have failed to reduce disease burden at the pace required to meet global targets. Community screening may enable more rapid declines...
www.medrxiv.org
August 27, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Community screening for #tuberculosis could extend the reach of #TB services, but evidence on its effectiveness is limited.
In our latest preprint, we examine the epidemiological impact of trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of screening. 1/n
bit.ly/3UK7pFD
In our latest preprint, we examine the epidemiological impact of trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of screening. 1/n
bit.ly/3UK7pFD
Reposted by LSHTM TB Modelling Group
Our new study examines social contact patterns in urban, peri-urban, and rural communities and their implications for #TB interventions like household contact tracing, infection prevention, and cluster RCTs. #MedSky #EpiSky #IDsky #TBSky
Read more in @plosglobalpublichealth.org
Read more in @plosglobalpublichealth.org
Within-country heterogeneity in patterns of social contact relevant for tuberculosis infection transmission, prevention, and care
Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission is driven by variable social, environmental, and biological factors, including the number and duration of indoor contacts. Social contact data can provide...
doi.org
July 15, 2025 at 9:49 PM