W

Yea think 850s were decently cold too

It definitely looks like it. Will see what CLI has

This phase traditionally results in warmer weather for the eastern US, and history shows us this relationship is significant. CPC also agrees on this assessment for Thanksgiving. This has been the second warmest fall on record, and will likely end warm.

A second piece we look at is the MJO. While it is not the single most important long term forecast tool, it is pretty important. It will be located over Oceania/West Pacific. If you look at when the first active pattern is, maybe in a few weeks.

Storm tracks usually like to hug the gradient from warm and cold, so maybe central US *could* have a storm track, but ten days out so not worth discussing. What we do know is even though the forecast period is many days away, the seeds that will be planted are closer in time.

Look what happens a few days after we see the high over Asia, the jet retracts. As we see in the western US, a trough forms which will bring in cooler air. While in the east, a fairly potent ridge forms. This will bring in warmer air from the south.

What does a retraction do? Jet stream is not allowed to spread far into the Pacific. This essentially causes the axis to be west of Hawaii. For areas west of say St. Louis, this brings colder temperatures with possible storms. For the east, warmth is likely.

Yep! After it being rather mild and dry the last month it’ll be a surprise absolutely

Fortunately I reloaded on camera gear in spring but maybe a drone

All young people too

Giving me vibes on three very significant storms for that region

Did you get to the end yet

Not missing much I see while in FL

Finding cool work trips. Got Alaska one down