Linus Vogt
@linusvogt.bsky.social
Postdoc at NYU Courant Institute 🌱 Ocean heat, carbon, oxygen
📈 As CMIP6 models underestimate historical Antarctic sea ice extent on average, this leads to an upward correction of climate projections by 2100 under all considered scenarios:
- OHU +3–14%
- Cloud feedback +19–32%
- Global surface warming +6–7%
- OHU +3–14%
- Cloud feedback +19–32%
- Global surface warming +6–7%
October 2, 2025 at 10:49 AM
📈 As CMIP6 models underestimate historical Antarctic sea ice extent on average, this leads to an upward correction of climate projections by 2100 under all considered scenarios:
- OHU +3–14%
- Cloud feedback +19–32%
- Global surface warming +6–7%
- OHU +3–14%
- Cloud feedback +19–32%
- Global surface warming +6–7%
Thus, the state of Antarctic sea ice today quantifies the potential for global climate change in the future.
More sea ice now → more warming later
This is evident as a strong correlation across CMIP6 models (and it also holds in CMIP5)
More sea ice now → more warming later
This is evident as a strong correlation across CMIP6 models (and it also holds in CMIP5)
October 2, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Thus, the state of Antarctic sea ice today quantifies the potential for global climate change in the future.
More sea ice now → more warming later
This is evident as a strong correlation across CMIP6 models (and it also holds in CMIP5)
More sea ice now → more warming later
This is evident as a strong correlation across CMIP6 models (and it also holds in CMIP5)
The constraint is based on Antarctic sea ice extent 🧊
Models with more sea ice today also simulate colder Southern Ocean SSTs, a colder deep ocean, and more mid-latitude cloud cover.
In the future, these models lose more sea ice and clouds, amplifying SW cloud feedback, surface warming, and OHU.
Models with more sea ice today also simulate colder Southern Ocean SSTs, a colder deep ocean, and more mid-latitude cloud cover.
In the future, these models lose more sea ice and clouds, amplifying SW cloud feedback, surface warming, and OHU.
October 2, 2025 at 10:49 AM
The constraint is based on Antarctic sea ice extent 🧊
Models with more sea ice today also simulate colder Southern Ocean SSTs, a colder deep ocean, and more mid-latitude cloud cover.
In the future, these models lose more sea ice and clouds, amplifying SW cloud feedback, surface warming, and OHU.
Models with more sea ice today also simulate colder Southern Ocean SSTs, a colder deep ocean, and more mid-latitude cloud cover.
In the future, these models lose more sea ice and clouds, amplifying SW cloud feedback, surface warming, and OHU.
We further find that the previously assumed importance of the AMOC for OHU efficiency can be explained by an inter-hemispheric connection in stratification strength between these two regions.
As CMIP6 models are too stratified in precisely these regions on average, they tend to underestimate OHUE.
As CMIP6 models are too stratified in precisely these regions on average, they tend to underestimate OHUE.
June 23, 2025 at 1:35 PM
We further find that the previously assumed importance of the AMOC for OHU efficiency can be explained by an inter-hemispheric connection in stratification strength between these two regions.
As CMIP6 models are too stratified in precisely these regions on average, they tend to underestimate OHUE.
As CMIP6 models are too stratified in precisely these regions on average, they tend to underestimate OHUE.
We show that upper-ocean stratification inhibits OHU efficiency in the Southern Ocean and the subpolar North Atlantic.
This is because stratification in these regions is linked to large overturning cells: the Southern Ocean upper cell and the AMOC.
This is because stratification in these regions is linked to large overturning cells: the Southern Ocean upper cell and the AMOC.
June 23, 2025 at 1:35 PM
We show that upper-ocean stratification inhibits OHU efficiency in the Southern Ocean and the subpolar North Atlantic.
This is because stratification in these regions is linked to large overturning cells: the Southern Ocean upper cell and the AMOC.
This is because stratification in these regions is linked to large overturning cells: the Southern Ocean upper cell and the AMOC.
In observations, the OHU efficiency in recent decades was around 0.6 W/m² per °C of global warming (Cael 2022, doi.org/10.1029/2022...).
However, current-generation climate models simulate a large range of values for this quantity, almost spanning a factor of 2:
However, current-generation climate models simulate a large range of values for this quantity, almost spanning a factor of 2:
June 23, 2025 at 1:35 PM
In observations, the OHU efficiency in recent decades was around 0.6 W/m² per °C of global warming (Cael 2022, doi.org/10.1029/2022...).
However, current-generation climate models simulate a large range of values for this quantity, almost spanning a factor of 2:
However, current-generation climate models simulate a large range of values for this quantity, almost spanning a factor of 2: