#Positive rainfall shocks enhance bans' effectiveness

(11/15)

#Droughts undermine bans effectiveness in bride price regions:

· Droughts halve the increase in the age of first marriage and first birth and nullify bans' effectiveness on child marriage likelihood and education

· The more severe the drought, the larger its effect

(10/15)

Result #1 – Ban effectiveness

· In urban areas, bans reduce child marriage likelihood by 13% (3 pp) for a 1 SD increase in ban exposure

· The younger the girl, the larger the effect

· In rural areas, bans delay marriage and childbirth but fail to lower child marriage rates

(8/15)

#Methodology

· I study impact of exogenous income shocks, approximated by weather shocks, on the effectiveness of child marriage bans in 11 African countries

· I combine marriage information from household surveys (#DHS) with rainfall (#CHIRPS) and ethnographic (#Murdock) data

(6/15)

#Financial factors:

· Economic conditions are strongly linked to child marriage, disproportionately affecting girls from disadvantaged backgrounds

· In SSA, child marriage rates are decreasing among wealthy families but increasing among the poorest

(4/15)

@unicef.org

#ChildMarriage is a major issue:

· 19% of women are married before 18

· Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rates (31%)

· Severe consequences on:
- Labor market participation
- Domestic violence
- Health
- Education

(2/15)

Graph: Child Marriage Monitoring Mechanism

Hi @bsky.app! I'm on the #EconJobMarket and happy to share my #JMP: "The Impact of Weather Shocks on the Effectiveness of Child Marriage Bans"

Laws banning child marriage often fall short outside urban areas.

I show that economic shocks explain the limited impact of these bans.

🧵(1/15)