Leo Bastos
@leosbastos.bsky.social
Public health researcher at Fiocruz 🇧🇷
Associate professor at IMPA Tech 🇧🇷
Bayesian statistician 📈
Infectious diseases modelling 🦠🦟
Father of 3 boys (be nice).
Associate professor at IMPA Tech 🇧🇷
Bayesian statistician 📈
Infectious diseases modelling 🦠🦟
Father of 3 boys (be nice).
Pinned
Leo Bastos
@leosbastos.bsky.social
· Feb 3
If you somehow found my profile, I usually post/complain about:
- Statistics (I am Bayesian with a preference for fast methods like INLA)
- Epidemiology (Infectious diseases epidemiology, outbreak surveillance, climate-sensitive diseases)
- Politics (I consider myself a progressist)
- Brazil 🇧🇷
- Statistics (I am Bayesian with a preference for fast methods like INLA)
- Epidemiology (Infectious diseases epidemiology, outbreak surveillance, climate-sensitive diseases)
- Politics (I consider myself a progressist)
- Brazil 🇧🇷
The linkedin games for some reason stopped working on my mobile so I lost my sequences. Although it is only a couple of minutes per day,I haven't realised I was consistently wasting plenty of time with them. I'm glad I am free of them...
November 7, 2025 at 10:54 PM
The linkedin games for some reason stopped working on my mobile so I lost my sequences. Although it is only a couple of minutes per day,I haven't realised I was consistently wasting plenty of time with them. I'm glad I am free of them...
Since I've been working on statistical modelling of infectious diseases from the pandemic onwards I got involved in too many projects leading to several publications which seems nice but it is not! If I could go back in time I would definitely work less, half of it or less.
I am exhausted now!
I am exhausted now!
a man is walking down a hallway with a suitcase and a dog .
ALT: a man is walking down a hallway with a suitcase and a dog .
media.tenor.com
October 15, 2025 at 1:46 AM
Since I've been working on statistical modelling of infectious diseases from the pandemic onwards I got involved in too many projects leading to several publications which seems nice but it is not! If I could go back in time I would definitely work less, half of it or less.
I am exhausted now!
I am exhausted now!
In this paper, we describe the southernmost dengue outbreak ever reported. The outbreak occurred on the city of Bahia Blanca, Argentina (~600km south of Buenos Aires).
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Characterization of the most austral autochthonous dengue outbreak reported in the world (city of Bahía Blanca, Argentina, January–June 2024). A cross-sectional study
Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease that is expanding its boundaries, causing outbreaks and autochthonous viral circulation in places where it had …
www.sciencedirect.com
October 4, 2025 at 1:41 PM
In this paper, we describe the southernmost dengue outbreak ever reported. The outbreak occurred on the city of Bahia Blanca, Argentina (~600km south of Buenos Aires).
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
NEW PAPER
We developed a statistical model to forecast dengue cases for the next season using the history of cases only. We suggest using the posterior predictive to define epidemics bands.
For instance, we could see how huge was 2024 dengue season in Brazil.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
We developed a statistical model to forecast dengue cases for the next season using the history of cases only. We suggest using the posterior predictive to define epidemics bands.
For instance, we could see how huge was 2024 dengue season in Brazil.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
September 4, 2025 at 6:37 PM
NEW PAPER
We developed a statistical model to forecast dengue cases for the next season using the history of cases only. We suggest using the posterior predictive to define epidemics bands.
For instance, we could see how huge was 2024 dengue season in Brazil.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
We developed a statistical model to forecast dengue cases for the next season using the history of cases only. We suggest using the posterior predictive to define epidemics bands.
For instance, we could see how huge was 2024 dengue season in Brazil.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Leo Bastos
📢 NEW PAPER! In response to 2024 dengue epidemic we built Dengue-tracker 🦟📈 to improve nowcasts in Brazil by combining surveillance data + Google Trends
🔗 diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-tracker
📄 doi.org/10.1371/jour...
🙌 With Guilherme Soares,Rafael Izbicki,Yang Xiao&@leosbastos.bsky.social
🔗 diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-tracker
📄 doi.org/10.1371/jour...
🙌 With Guilherme Soares,Rafael Izbicki,Yang Xiao&@leosbastos.bsky.social
August 27, 2025 at 7:09 PM
📢 NEW PAPER! In response to 2024 dengue epidemic we built Dengue-tracker 🦟📈 to improve nowcasts in Brazil by combining surveillance data + Google Trends
🔗 diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-tracker
📄 doi.org/10.1371/jour...
🙌 With Guilherme Soares,Rafael Izbicki,Yang Xiao&@leosbastos.bsky.social
🔗 diseasesurveillance.github.io/dengue-tracker
📄 doi.org/10.1371/jour...
🙌 With Guilherme Soares,Rafael Izbicki,Yang Xiao&@leosbastos.bsky.social
I usually don't like pictures of myself, but I like this one.
August 9, 2025 at 11:31 PM
I usually don't like pictures of myself, but I like this one.
When Thomas Bayes meets John Snow. Presented in Vitória, capital of Espírito Santo state, at the 69th RBRAS meeting and 21st SEAGRO
August 5, 2025 at 4:07 AM
When Thomas Bayes meets John Snow. Presented in Vitória, capital of Espírito Santo state, at the 69th RBRAS meeting and 21st SEAGRO
The #JSM2025 is about to start, the JSM is by far the biggest stats conference I've attended. I went to Miami Beach and Boston, it was a great experience. But nowadays I prefer relatively smaller conferences and outside the US (my visa expired and I am not keen to pass through the application again)
August 2, 2025 at 2:50 PM
The #JSM2025 is about to start, the JSM is by far the biggest stats conference I've attended. I went to Miami Beach and Boston, it was a great experience. But nowadays I prefer relatively smaller conferences and outside the US (my visa expired and I am not keen to pass through the application again)
In two weeks, I will be a keynote speaker in a national stats conference. I am quite happy about that but also very nervous.
I will talk about Bayesian learning on infectious disease surveillance, so it is time to start preparing my talk (and finish it 10 minutes before the actual conference... 😅)
I will talk about Bayesian learning on infectious disease surveillance, so it is time to start preparing my talk (and finish it 10 minutes before the actual conference... 😅)
a close up of a man making a funny face while smiling .
ALT: a close up of a man making a funny face while smiling .
media.tenor.com
July 24, 2025 at 1:07 AM
In two weeks, I will be a keynote speaker in a national stats conference. I am quite happy about that but also very nervous.
I will talk about Bayesian learning on infectious disease surveillance, so it is time to start preparing my talk (and finish it 10 minutes before the actual conference... 😅)
I will talk about Bayesian learning on infectious disease surveillance, so it is time to start preparing my talk (and finish it 10 minutes before the actual conference... 😅)
Can you imagine if last year the Brazilian visa were revoked from the NY judge and the jury members (and their families) after Trump being convicted of crimes? Super weird, isn't it? Well, it seems the opposite is OK for some...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Rubio moves to strip US visas from eight Brazilian judges in Bolsonaro battle
Move by Marco Rubio is latest attempt by Trump administration to help former president avoid justice over alleged coup
www.theguardian.com
July 19, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Can you imagine if last year the Brazilian visa were revoked from the NY judge and the jury members (and their families) after Trump being convicted of crimes? Super weird, isn't it? Well, it seems the opposite is OK for some...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Trump will soon add new tariffs for all countries to guarantee global security like Italian mafia or Brazilian militia does on their territories (you can name your "favourite" group/organisation/gang/whatever that charges others to guarantee their security)
July 14, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Trump will soon add new tariffs for all countries to guarantee global security like Italian mafia or Brazilian militia does on their territories (you can name your "favourite" group/organisation/gang/whatever that charges others to guarantee their security)
I am quite surprised and impressed by Chelsea's result at the final against PSG.
But the match I am interested in today is from another blue jersey team at the Brasileirão 🦊😅😬
Cruzeiro X Grêmio
But the match I am interested in today is from another blue jersey team at the Brasileirão 🦊😅😬
Cruzeiro X Grêmio
July 13, 2025 at 9:47 PM
I am quite surprised and impressed by Chelsea's result at the final against PSG.
But the match I am interested in today is from another blue jersey team at the Brasileirão 🦊😅😬
Cruzeiro X Grêmio
But the match I am interested in today is from another blue jersey team at the Brasileirão 🦊😅😬
Cruzeiro X Grêmio
Reposted by Leo Bastos
Many thanks @leosbastos.bsky.social and everyone at Fiocruz for the warm welcome! I really enjoyed hearing about all the exciting work happening here and visiting the beautiful Rio de Janeiro! 💚💛💙
#rstats #GISchat #diseasesurveillance
#rstats #GISchat #diseasesurveillance
We had a very special visitor today, @paulamoraga.bsky.social gave us a great lecturer on Spatial data science in R.
Thanks Paula!
Thanks Paula!
July 7, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Many thanks @leosbastos.bsky.social and everyone at Fiocruz for the warm welcome! I really enjoyed hearing about all the exciting work happening here and visiting the beautiful Rio de Janeiro! 💚💛💙
#rstats #GISchat #diseasesurveillance
#rstats #GISchat #diseasesurveillance
It is a bit frustrating knowing that the 2028 ISBA World meeting will be in the US (Milwaukee). Nothing against the venue itself, but to have to pass through the annoying Visa process a Brazilian has to do.
It may be convenient for most Bayesians, but it is not for me.
It may be convenient for most Bayesians, but it is not for me.
July 6, 2025 at 2:38 PM
It is a bit frustrating knowing that the 2028 ISBA World meeting will be in the US (Milwaukee). Nothing against the venue itself, but to have to pass through the annoying Visa process a Brazilian has to do.
It may be convenient for most Bayesians, but it is not for me.
It may be convenient for most Bayesians, but it is not for me.
We had a very special visitor today, @paulamoraga.bsky.social gave us a great lecturer on Spatial data science in R.
Thanks Paula!
Thanks Paula!
June 26, 2025 at 9:46 PM
We had a very special visitor today, @paulamoraga.bsky.social gave us a great lecturer on Spatial data science in R.
Thanks Paula!
Thanks Paula!
The manuscript "Duration of COVID-19 symptoms in children: a longitudinal study in a Rio de Janeiro favela, Brazil" was recently accepted in the BMJ Open.
I am one of the authors and, once published, it will be my 100th peer reviewed paper.
A meaningless academic milestone, a cool number though.
I am one of the authors and, once published, it will be my 100th peer reviewed paper.
A meaningless academic milestone, a cool number though.
June 23, 2025 at 1:20 AM
The manuscript "Duration of COVID-19 symptoms in children: a longitudinal study in a Rio de Janeiro favela, Brazil" was recently accepted in the BMJ Open.
I am one of the authors and, once published, it will be my 100th peer reviewed paper.
A meaningless academic milestone, a cool number though.
I am one of the authors and, once published, it will be my 100th peer reviewed paper.
A meaningless academic milestone, a cool number though.
Europeans: we don't really care about the FIFA world club...
Dude, my team is not even there and I am watching the games even supporting some clubs (the weaker ones which maybe are no longer the Brazilian ones...)
Dude, my team is not even there and I am watching the games even supporting some clubs (the weaker ones which maybe are no longer the Brazilian ones...)
a young boy is making a funny face while wearing a red and blue shirt .
ALT: a young boy is making a funny face while wearing a red and blue shirt .
media.tenor.com
June 21, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Europeans: we don't really care about the FIFA world club...
Dude, my team is not even there and I am watching the games even supporting some clubs (the weaker ones which maybe are no longer the Brazilian ones...)
Dude, my team is not even there and I am watching the games even supporting some clubs (the weaker ones which maybe are no longer the Brazilian ones...)
Reposted by Leo Bastos
As well as interesting data, nice piece of data viz to have outlier line stretch beyond y axis…
South Korea gender divide update 😲
Young men lean right by 50 points
(74% conservative vs 24% centre-left)
Young women lean left by 22 points
(58% centre-left vs 36% cons)
Young men lean right by 50 points
(74% conservative vs 24% centre-left)
Young women lean left by 22 points
(58% centre-left vs 36% cons)
June 4, 2025 at 11:01 AM
As well as interesting data, nice piece of data viz to have outlier line stretch beyond y axis…
The Fiocruz main campus is at Av. Brasil. I feel sad to see it called "avenue of Death" but it is true... 😥
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...
‘Avenue of Death’: the Rio motorway where stray bullets, botched raids and resilience collide
Brazil Avenue was meant to symbolise progress – today it tells the story of a city at war with itself
www.theguardian.com
June 1, 2025 at 1:30 AM
The Fiocruz main campus is at Av. Brasil. I feel sad to see it called "avenue of Death" but it is true... 😥
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...
Save the dates and come to Rio to talk about Data Science in Public Heath, epidemiological surveillance and the impacts of the climate change.
fiocruz.tghn.org/news/e-surve...
fiocruz.tghn.org/news/e-surve...
E-Vigilância 2025: Data Science in Public Health • Fiocruzarrow-downarrow-rightarrow-upback-arrowchecklistcloseAsset 5cpd-clockcpd-competenciescpd-cv-buildcpd-keyAsset 3cpd-other-pointscpd-previous-sk...
Conference in Rio de Janeiro explores data science and epidemiological surveillance amid health and climate emergencies in Brazil.
fiocruz.tghn.org
May 29, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Save the dates and come to Rio to talk about Data Science in Public Heath, epidemiological surveillance and the impacts of the climate change.
fiocruz.tghn.org/news/e-surve...
fiocruz.tghn.org/news/e-surve...
Today (25/5) is Fiocruz 125th year anniversary, instead of the iconic castle picture (which turns out I have no one in my phone) I post a picture of the cell from the Life's museum which is part of the Fiocruz campus in Manguinhos and I place I often take my kids to play around there.
May 25, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Today (25/5) is Fiocruz 125th year anniversary, instead of the iconic castle picture (which turns out I have no one in my phone) I post a picture of the cell from the Life's museum which is part of the Fiocruz campus in Manguinhos and I place I often take my kids to play around there.
Reposted by Leo Bastos
Our (@leosbastos.bsky.social and I) comment about dengue risk is highlighted in the cover and the cover itself!!!
Link to our comment: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Link to our comment: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
The May 2025 issue of The Lancet Regional Health - Americas is now available online: lnkd.in/gXMSxU6p
In this issue, we covered #SubstanceUseDisorder; #Anxiety;
#Alzheimer'sDisease; #HealthyLifeExpectancy; #ChagasDisease; #GangViolence; #Type2Diabetes; #BuildingCollapse; and much more.
In this issue, we covered #SubstanceUseDisorder; #Anxiety;
#Alzheimer'sDisease; #HealthyLifeExpectancy; #ChagasDisease; #GangViolence; #Type2Diabetes; #BuildingCollapse; and much more.
May 18, 2025 at 2:19 AM
Our (@leosbastos.bsky.social and I) comment about dengue risk is highlighted in the cover and the cover itself!!!
Link to our comment: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
Link to our comment: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
It is kind of interesting that the new Pope's name in English is Leo.
In Portuguese, the Pope's name is "Papa Leão" (which I would firstly translate to Pope Lion, but that sounds very odd and made me Google it).
In Portuguese, the Pope's name is "Papa Leão" (which I would firstly translate to Pope Lion, but that sounds very odd and made me Google it).
May 8, 2025 at 9:34 PM
It is kind of interesting that the new Pope's name in English is Leo.
In Portuguese, the Pope's name is "Papa Leão" (which I would firstly translate to Pope Lion, but that sounds very odd and made me Google it).
In Portuguese, the Pope's name is "Papa Leão" (which I would firstly translate to Pope Lion, but that sounds very odd and made me Google it).
Dengue in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Compared to last year, this year doesn't look that bad. But...
May 2, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Dengue in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Compared to last year, this year doesn't look that bad. But...