Rafa Lopes
@rafalpx.bsky.social
Researcher on drivers of epidemic dynamics
Postdoc at @nathangrubaugh.bsky.social & @colincarlson.bsky.social labs
PhD in Physics
Opinions are my own.
DEFENSOR DO SUS!
Postdoc at @nathangrubaugh.bsky.social & @colincarlson.bsky.social labs
PhD in Physics
Opinions are my own.
DEFENSOR DO SUS!
Pinned
Rafa Lopes
@rafalpx.bsky.social
· May 16
Release 0.2.3 · covid19br/nowcaster
What's Changed
Zero-inflated model on non-structured data by @rafalopespx in #35
44 bug by @rafalopespx in #45
New vignettes at the website
Full Changelog: 0.2.2...0.2.3
github.com
📦 New release of our R package for nowcasting!
Nowcaster is at version 0.2.3 you can check the changelog here: github.com/covid19br/no...
Nowcaster is at version 0.2.3 you can check the changelog here: github.com/covid19br/no...
Scientific writing is the art of saying nothing by writing everything
January 24, 2026 at 7:49 PM
Scientific writing is the art of saying nothing by writing everything
Reposted by Rafa Lopes
We are excited to announce that Doctor Mike Varshavski — the most popular doctor in the world with over 30 million followers — will be joining Dean @meganranney.bsky.social for a fireside chat on Feb 10.
This event is open to members of the Yale community only. Register now: m.yale.edu/dfgk.
This event is open to members of the Yale community only. Register now: m.yale.edu/dfgk.
January 22, 2026 at 4:08 PM
We are excited to announce that Doctor Mike Varshavski — the most popular doctor in the world with over 30 million followers — will be joining Dean @meganranney.bsky.social for a fireside chat on Feb 10.
This event is open to members of the Yale community only. Register now: m.yale.edu/dfgk.
This event is open to members of the Yale community only. Register now: m.yale.edu/dfgk.
Reposted by Rafa Lopes
A new report from researchers at the Yale School of Public Health warns that the U.S. government’s abrupt cancellation of funding for mRNA vaccine research could have devastating health and economic consequences for the nation.
New report sounds alarm on health fallout from mRNA vaccine funding cuts
A new report from the Yale School of Public Health warns that the U.S. government’s abrupt cancellation of funding for mRNA vaccine research could have
ysph.yale.edu
December 22, 2025 at 8:43 PM
A new report from researchers at the Yale School of Public Health warns that the U.S. government’s abrupt cancellation of funding for mRNA vaccine research could have devastating health and economic consequences for the nation.
One of the nicest thing of life is to learn that you aren’t guilty of breaking something. It was just a bad design. I think I have broken more scissors than glass in my life, but I just learned that those modern ✂️ with plastic handles are really prompt to break!
January 21, 2026 at 3:15 AM
One of the nicest thing of life is to learn that you aren’t guilty of breaking something. It was just a bad design. I think I have broken more scissors than glass in my life, but I just learned that those modern ✂️ with plastic handles are really prompt to break!
Sometimes I get impressed by how good some scientist are understand certain phenomenon. Bjerknes understood the connection of El Niño and cold winter in Northern hemisphere (Europe on the paper), in 1966. Without no good model for global circulation, only poor satellites image and a lot of physics.
January 19, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Sometimes I get impressed by how good some scientist are understand certain phenomenon. Bjerknes understood the connection of El Niño and cold winter in Northern hemisphere (Europe on the paper), in 1966. Without no good model for global circulation, only poor satellites image and a lot of physics.
Reposted by Rafa Lopes
“akin to the idea that if we keep breeding horses to run faster and faster, one of them will give birth to a locomotive”
🧪
🧪
Córy Doctorow with another verbal bullseye: pluralistic.net/2026/01/13/n...
January 18, 2026 at 6:37 PM
“akin to the idea that if we keep breeding horses to run faster and faster, one of them will give birth to a locomotive”
🧪
🧪
Reposted by Rafa Lopes
Córy Doctorow with another verbal bullseye: pluralistic.net/2026/01/13/n...
January 18, 2026 at 5:29 PM
Córy Doctorow with another verbal bullseye: pluralistic.net/2026/01/13/n...
Reposted by Rafa Lopes
In a new interdisciplinary Yale study, researchers found that SARS-CoV-2 — the virus responsible for COVID-19 — is weakening within the animal kingdom: https://news.yale.edu/2026/01/09/sars-cov-2-decline-animals-study-finds
January 16, 2026 at 5:30 PM
In a new interdisciplinary Yale study, researchers found that SARS-CoV-2 — the virus responsible for COVID-19 — is weakening within the animal kingdom: https://news.yale.edu/2026/01/09/sars-cov-2-decline-animals-study-finds
I cannot recommend enough this book. Jonathan Kennedy ties human history to its plagues and basically is one of the best reads I have had in years.
With a lot of references he shows that our crises and our thriving as species come from dealing or not with diseases 🦠
With a lot of references he shows that our crises and our thriving as species come from dealing or not with diseases 🦠
January 14, 2026 at 10:34 AM
I cannot recommend enough this book. Jonathan Kennedy ties human history to its plagues and basically is one of the best reads I have had in years.
With a lot of references he shows that our crises and our thriving as species come from dealing or not with diseases 🦠
With a lot of references he shows that our crises and our thriving as species come from dealing or not with diseases 🦠
I’m marathoning a tv show that one of the characters got a professor position before me.
I think this is personal!
I think this is personal!
January 11, 2026 at 9:58 PM
I’m marathoning a tv show that one of the characters got a professor position before me.
I think this is personal!
I think this is personal!
Why the fuck a place says is walk-in only to put a QR code for the waitlist at the door?
Walk-in is meant to you to walk in to be seated, and not to scan a QR code to join the queue and wait
Walk-in is meant to you to walk in to be seated, and not to scan a QR code to join the queue and wait
January 11, 2026 at 1:05 PM
Why the fuck a place says is walk-in only to put a QR code for the waitlist at the door?
Walk-in is meant to you to walk in to be seated, and not to scan a QR code to join the queue and wait
Walk-in is meant to you to walk in to be seated, and not to scan a QR code to join the queue and wait
Gen AI is to put your brain in a jar and think you learned something new because the answer appeared on screen
I suspect that one of the reasons behind the widespread adoption of generative AI by faculty is that it gives people the illusion that they can still do the things they knew how to do as a postdoc. Gen AI is used as a poor substitute to maintaining core skills.
January 8, 2026 at 1:25 PM
Gen AI is to put your brain in a jar and think you learned something new because the answer appeared on screen
Reposted by Rafa Lopes
“[P]utting data into GISAID is like dropping it in a mail slot in an unmarked building,” says @colincarlson.bsky.social. “It’s wonderful that there’s so much cool stuff in that building. It would be great if we knew who owned it, or who paid for it, or what they plan to do with it.”
#IDsky 🧪
#IDsky 🧪
Fresh conflicts erupt around giant database for flu and COVID-19 sequences
Critics say “autocratic” behavior by GISAID could hamper response to a future pandemic
www.science.org
January 7, 2026 at 9:51 AM
“[P]utting data into GISAID is like dropping it in a mail slot in an unmarked building,” says @colincarlson.bsky.social. “It’s wonderful that there’s so much cool stuff in that building. It would be great if we knew who owned it, or who paid for it, or what they plan to do with it.”
#IDsky 🧪
#IDsky 🧪
New year, same old life of trying not to swear to reviewer who's asking of parameters to be reported to a non-parametric test
January 5, 2026 at 3:13 PM
New year, same old life of trying not to swear to reviewer who's asking of parameters to be reported to a non-parametric test
I’ve been watching ‘Younger’ and I love the world we’re DT was just a bad joke in a not big tv show
January 4, 2026 at 10:01 PM
I’ve been watching ‘Younger’ and I love the world we’re DT was just a bad joke in a not big tv show
What a year huh?
Captain is Jan 2nd!
Ohh shit!
Captain is Jan 2nd!
Ohh shit!
January 3, 2026 at 3:18 PM
What a year huh?
Captain is Jan 2nd!
Ohh shit!
Captain is Jan 2nd!
Ohh shit!
Some artist pass away, people discovers basic facts about and cancel them because of that.
We just have entered the post morten cancel era
We just have entered the post morten cancel era
December 30, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Some artist pass away, people discovers basic facts about and cancel them because of that.
We just have entered the post morten cancel era
We just have entered the post morten cancel era
Our pre-print is alive here 👇
Check it out!
Check it out!
Variations in annual dengue intensities are explained by temperature anomalies https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2025.12.19.25342670v1
December 23, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Our pre-print is alive here 👇
Check it out!
Check it out!
Our new work investigates how dengue intensities are explained by temperatures anomalies!
To do that we model over than 30 year of dengue incidence globally, conducting a meta regression of models with mediator variables. Temperature anomalies are an explanatory variable to high intensity years!
To do that we model over than 30 year of dengue incidence globally, conducting a meta regression of models with mediator variables. Temperature anomalies are an explanatory variable to high intensity years!
Variations in annual dengue intensities are explained by temperature anomalies
Our new work led by Abbey Porzucek, @rafalpx.bsky.social, @colincarlson.bsky.social, Dan Weinberger to develop a method to compare relative dengue intensity between years and countries.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Our new work led by Abbey Porzucek, @rafalpx.bsky.social, @colincarlson.bsky.social, Dan Weinberger to develop a method to compare relative dengue intensity between years and countries.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
December 23, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Our new work investigates how dengue intensities are explained by temperatures anomalies!
To do that we model over than 30 year of dengue incidence globally, conducting a meta regression of models with mediator variables. Temperature anomalies are an explanatory variable to high intensity years!
To do that we model over than 30 year of dengue incidence globally, conducting a meta regression of models with mediator variables. Temperature anomalies are an explanatory variable to high intensity years!
Reposted by Rafa Lopes
Great new preprint led by Abbey Porzucek and a bunch of @nathangrubaugh.bsky.social folks, including @rafalpx.bsky.social! I think this "RISc" score is really clever - we can't just answer "this year is the worst yet" every year, but over time, more and more cases are coming from big outbreaks
December 23, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Great new preprint led by Abbey Porzucek and a bunch of @nathangrubaugh.bsky.social folks, including @rafalpx.bsky.social! I think this "RISc" score is really clever - we can't just answer "this year is the worst yet" every year, but over time, more and more cases are coming from big outbreaks
Reposted by Rafa Lopes
NEW!🦠🌡️ : What makes a "dengue year" like 2023-24? It's hard to pin down an answer unless you can homogenize out all the spatial variation and temporal trends. But once you do, the answer is pretty clean: dengue years are hot years.
Last one of the year (unless...?) 👉 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Last one of the year (unless...?) 👉 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
December 23, 2025 at 2:32 PM
NEW!🦠🌡️ : What makes a "dengue year" like 2023-24? It's hard to pin down an answer unless you can homogenize out all the spatial variation and temporal trends. But once you do, the answer is pretty clean: dengue years are hot years.
Last one of the year (unless...?) 👉 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Last one of the year (unless...?) 👉 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Reposted by Rafa Lopes
Variations in annual dengue intensities are explained by temperature anomalies
Our new work led by Abbey Porzucek, @rafalpx.bsky.social, @colincarlson.bsky.social, Dan Weinberger to develop a method to compare relative dengue intensity between years and countries.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Our new work led by Abbey Porzucek, @rafalpx.bsky.social, @colincarlson.bsky.social, Dan Weinberger to develop a method to compare relative dengue intensity between years and countries.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
December 22, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Variations in annual dengue intensities are explained by temperature anomalies
Our new work led by Abbey Porzucek, @rafalpx.bsky.social, @colincarlson.bsky.social, Dan Weinberger to develop a method to compare relative dengue intensity between years and countries.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Our new work led by Abbey Porzucek, @rafalpx.bsky.social, @colincarlson.bsky.social, Dan Weinberger to develop a method to compare relative dengue intensity between years and countries.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Gente cadê o prefeito de SP?
Ahhh é verdade não tem mesmo
Ahhh é verdade não tem mesmo
December 11, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Gente cadê o prefeito de SP?
Ahhh é verdade não tem mesmo
Ahhh é verdade não tem mesmo
Reposted by Rafa Lopes
Has anyone applied the the NSF Mid-Career Advancement (MCA) or similar that would be okay with sharing their application with me?
I'm looking for examples on how it should be structured and focused for a MCA.
Also, I've never applied for an NSF grant...
www.nsf.gov/funding/oppo...
I'm looking for examples on how it should be structured and focused for a MCA.
Also, I've never applied for an NSF grant...
www.nsf.gov/funding/oppo...
Mid-Career Advancement (MCA)
www.nsf.gov
December 10, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Has anyone applied the the NSF Mid-Career Advancement (MCA) or similar that would be okay with sharing their application with me?
I'm looking for examples on how it should be structured and focused for a MCA.
Also, I've never applied for an NSF grant...
www.nsf.gov/funding/oppo...
I'm looking for examples on how it should be structured and focused for a MCA.
Also, I've never applied for an NSF grant...
www.nsf.gov/funding/oppo...