Le Charteur
@lecharteur.bsky.social
Just sharing interesting charts, seeking to learn more, and better understand this world of economics/finance and their impacts on the real economy.
Who knew that gilts loved the idea of broad-based tax measures (i.e., rises) over a charcuterie board of narrow measures. 🤷🏻♂️
November 15, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Who knew that gilts loved the idea of broad-based tax measures (i.e., rises) over a charcuterie board of narrow measures. 🤷🏻♂️
State street has been publishing some interesting research lately. The one that caught my eye is on market concentration risk. According to their results, there is no predictive power in market concentration for future risk/returns.
globalmarkets.statestreet.com/research/por...
globalmarkets.statestreet.com/research/por...
October 18, 2025 at 6:58 AM
State street has been publishing some interesting research lately. The one that caught my eye is on market concentration risk. According to their results, there is no predictive power in market concentration for future risk/returns.
globalmarkets.statestreet.com/research/por...
globalmarkets.statestreet.com/research/por...
Notwithstanding Friday’s sell-off, gold’s run this year has been something else. It’s beaten the Mag7 & Nvidia YTD.
October 11, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Notwithstanding Friday’s sell-off, gold’s run this year has been something else. It’s beaten the Mag7 & Nvidia YTD.
Crazy chart from @bcaresearch.bsky.social showing the central bank cycle (note not the size of cuts or hikes just the direction). In a world that is hard to read, seems CBs are generally comfortable with the view that the global economy is weakening.
September 21, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Crazy chart from @bcaresearch.bsky.social showing the central bank cycle (note not the size of cuts or hikes just the direction). In a world that is hard to read, seems CBs are generally comfortable with the view that the global economy is weakening.
And as @johnauthers.bsky.social wrote this morning Gavekal shows a lot of demand side indicators are “meh” 🤷♂️ (the technical term) if not just weak.
September 17, 2025 at 6:41 AM
And as @johnauthers.bsky.social wrote this morning Gavekal shows a lot of demand side indicators are “meh” 🤷♂️ (the technical term) if not just weak.
Not hard to see tons of articles, charts, etc showing how expensive the US/Large Cap/Growth (all basically different names for SP500 exposure) is. Haven’t seen how cheap everything is relative to that.
August 31, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Not hard to see tons of articles, charts, etc showing how expensive the US/Large Cap/Growth (all basically different names for SP500 exposure) is. Haven’t seen how cheap everything is relative to that.
Fantastic chart @gilesyb.bsky.social guest-editing top of the charts! Fiscal restraint in out-turns (for a variety of legitimate reasons) really hasn’t been seen in the UK since the turn of the century.
August 1, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Fantastic chart @gilesyb.bsky.social guest-editing top of the charts! Fiscal restraint in out-turns (for a variety of legitimate reasons) really hasn’t been seen in the UK since the turn of the century.
Took me a few days to digest the report doing the rounds from Knut Kjaer. Some seriously good stuff in there for asset allocators. Key takeaway: we should step back from the models for a moment (MVO, etc.) & think about where we want exposure fundamentally as risk-adj returns rely on system working.
April 17, 2025 at 6:47 AM
Took me a few days to digest the report doing the rounds from Knut Kjaer. Some seriously good stuff in there for asset allocators. Key takeaway: we should step back from the models for a moment (MVO, etc.) & think about where we want exposure fundamentally as risk-adj returns rely on system working.
Down. Reminds me of @rajakorman.bsky.social and his perfect diagram in @alphaville.ft.com.
April 2, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Down. Reminds me of @rajakorman.bsky.social and his perfect diagram in @alphaville.ft.com.
Now this doesn’t make sense. Why not 📈? Safe haven status overriding rational thought?
April 2, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Now this doesn’t make sense. Why not 📈? Safe haven status overriding rational thought?
Amazing image. Feels close to the one where he drew on a map. Some hefty rates on there though. Weird he keeps saying though “great people, tough traders, but we’re going to put these tariffs on them.”.
#LiberationDay
#LiberationDay
April 2, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Amazing image. Feels close to the one where he drew on a map. Some hefty rates on there though. Weird he keeps saying though “great people, tough traders, but we’re going to put these tariffs on them.”.
#LiberationDay
#LiberationDay
What a dramatic turn of events for the US. After all of last year seeing the GDPNow estimates consistently outpace the blue chip (correctly) to have it now drop off a cliff edge….almost like economics could tell you what *NOT* to do…
March 5, 2025 at 4:03 PM
What a dramatic turn of events for the US. After all of last year seeing the GDPNow estimates consistently outpace the blue chip (correctly) to have it now drop off a cliff edge….almost like economics could tell you what *NOT* to do…
Really clever article from @economist.com last week discussing how hard it is to truly get diversification as the world becomes more interconnected. Potentially the one silver lining there is to a more fragmented world?
February 10, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Really clever article from @economist.com last week discussing how hard it is to truly get diversification as the world becomes more interconnected. Potentially the one silver lining there is to a more fragmented world?
Did the UK have different expectations about where long-term yields would go than other DM governments?!
Looks like they locked in lower rates for longer.
Looks like they locked in lower rates for longer.
February 10, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Did the UK have different expectations about where long-term yields would go than other DM governments?!
Looks like they locked in lower rates for longer.
Looks like they locked in lower rates for longer.
@tobyn.bsky.social - any insight on what BCImc is actively deallocating? Really interesting report btw!
February 7, 2025 at 1:49 PM
@tobyn.bsky.social - any insight on what BCImc is actively deallocating? Really interesting report btw!
Term premium is back. Yet, rates are being driven by something else other than investors demanding more for an uncertain outlook as indicated by the term premium being at current levels back in 2015. Maybe it was just the weight of QE?
January 24, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Term premium is back. Yet, rates are being driven by something else other than investors demanding more for an uncertain outlook as indicated by the term premium being at current levels back in 2015. Maybe it was just the weight of QE?
It’s like this one - when you just adapt your expectations so dramatically depending on your ‘vibe’ harms the usefulness of asking. (Thanks to @johnauthers.bsky.social).
January 14, 2025 at 1:42 PM
It’s like this one - when you just adapt your expectations so dramatically depending on your ‘vibe’ harms the usefulness of asking. (Thanks to @johnauthers.bsky.social).
I’m really convinced that the UK has a specific premium built into its 10Yr just because how consistently above it has been since the Truss episode. Doesn’t seem to be built into other assets though? Thoughts?
January 10, 2025 at 2:20 PM
I’m really convinced that the UK has a specific premium built into its 10Yr just because how consistently above it has been since the Truss episode. Doesn’t seem to be built into other assets though? Thoughts?
It’s amazing how this book that was published in *2015* isn’t getting cited more when Trump makes his jokes about Canada being the 51st State.
January 6, 2025 at 8:33 PM
It’s amazing how this book that was published in *2015* isn’t getting cited more when Trump makes his jokes about Canada being the 51st State.
Tell me you live in a G7 country without telling me you live in a G7 country.
The true enemy of rail isn’t lack of investment, but the leaves 🍂.
The true enemy of rail isn’t lack of investment, but the leaves 🍂.
December 5, 2024 at 10:34 AM
Tell me you live in a G7 country without telling me you live in a G7 country.
The true enemy of rail isn’t lack of investment, but the leaves 🍂.
The true enemy of rail isn’t lack of investment, but the leaves 🍂.
Big fan of the normalised addiction portfolio (cocoa and coffee). If you’re not in coca and coffee, what are you doing?! 🍫 ☕️
November 25, 2024 at 11:46 AM
Big fan of the normalised addiction portfolio (cocoa and coffee). If you’re not in coca and coffee, what are you doing?! 🍫 ☕️
And it really just comes down to the tax side of things. For all the oxygen tax cuts take up in the American political space, the US hasn’t really changed its tax take much since the middle of the 20th century really + it’s still <20%!
November 22, 2024 at 6:38 AM
And it really just comes down to the tax side of things. For all the oxygen tax cuts take up in the American political space, the US hasn’t really changed its tax take much since the middle of the 20th century really + it’s still <20%!
A helpful perspective/reminder on how people experience inflation versus how markets do. So even with inflation trending down, people still are feeling the pain in their wallets as they’ve anchored prices from before the upswing in the index.
November 9, 2024 at 5:02 PM
A helpful perspective/reminder on how people experience inflation versus how markets do. So even with inflation trending down, people still are feeling the pain in their wallets as they’ve anchored prices from before the upswing in the index.
This remains a mystery to me. Why is the Chinese 10 year’s yield continually going down particularly after the poor economic performance of late, and limited insight on what the government is going to do. Thoughts?
October 18, 2024 at 3:54 PM
This remains a mystery to me. Why is the Chinese 10 year’s yield continually going down particularly after the poor economic performance of late, and limited insight on what the government is going to do. Thoughts?
You really can’t beat this one.
October 1, 2024 at 6:20 PM
You really can’t beat this one.