Pierre-Simon Laplace
@learnbayesstats.bsky.social
A podcast on #BayesianStats -- the methods, the projects, the people
By @alex-andorra.bsky.social
Listen: http://tinyurl.com/pvz4ekky
Support: http://tinyurl.com/2p8mpxnp
By @alex-andorra.bsky.social
Listen: http://tinyurl.com/pvz4ekky
Support: http://tinyurl.com/2p8mpxnp
Thanks again for the guest star appearance @aseyboldt.bsky.social !! You're welcome back anytime ;)
June 13, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Thanks again for the guest star appearance @aseyboldt.bsky.social !! You're welcome back anytime ;)
David will demo #TimeSeries models -- AR, MA, ARMA, auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector auto-regressive (VAR) models.
👉 Paper: projecteuclid.org/journals/bay...
👉 Paper: projecteuclid.org/journals/bay...
The ARR2 Prior: Flexible Predictive Prior Definition for Bayesian Auto-Regressions
We present the ARR2 prior, a joint prior over the auto-regressive components in Bayesian time-series models and their induced R2. Compared to other priors designed for times-series models, the ARR2 prior allows for flexible and intuitive shrinkage. We derive the prior for pure auto-regressive models, and extend it to auto-regressive models with exogenous covariates, and state-space models. Through both simulations and real-world modelling exercises, we demonstrate the efficacy of the ARR2 prior in improving sparse and reliable inference, while showing greater inference quality and predictive performance than other shrinkage priors. An open-source implementation of the prior is provided.
projecteuclid.org
April 23, 2025 at 5:50 PM
David will demo #TimeSeries models -- AR, MA, ARMA, auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector auto-regressive (VAR) models.
👉 Paper: projecteuclid.org/journals/bay...
👉 Paper: projecteuclid.org/journals/bay...