Lisa Dubay
@ldubay.bsky.social
Senior Fellow by day for Urban Institute's Health Policy Center. Opinions my own!
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
"researchers have estimated that the end of enhanced tax credits will lead to 7.3 mill people losing their ACA coverage in 2026, of whom 4.8 mill would become uninsured. The loss of the additional subsidies are projected to increase how much...enrollees must pay...from an avg of $888 to $1,904/year"
Expiring ACA Premium Tax Credits Could Lead to Nearly 340,000 Jobs Lost Across the U.S. in 2026
Unless Congress acts quickly to extend the enhanced ACA marketplace premium tax credits, nearly 5 million people could lose health insurance coverage in 2026.
www.commonwealthfund.org
October 20, 2025 at 3:09 PM
"researchers have estimated that the end of enhanced tax credits will lead to 7.3 mill people losing their ACA coverage in 2026, of whom 4.8 mill would become uninsured. The loss of the additional subsidies are projected to increase how much...enrollees must pay...from an avg of $888 to $1,904/year"
New estimates from my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social ky.social colleagues showing that 4.8 million people will become uninsured if the enhanced premium tax credits are not extended. www.urban.org/research/pub...
September 18, 2025 at 3:07 PM
New estimates from my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social ky.social colleagues showing that 4.8 million people will become uninsured if the enhanced premium tax credits are not extended. www.urban.org/research/pub...
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
Despite claims to the contrary, premium tax credits are well targeted to people with low & moderate incomes who need the most help with health costs. Three-quarters of people getting the credits have incomes below 300% FPL (~$47K for an individual). >90% have incomes below 400% FPL (~$63K)
September 17, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Despite claims to the contrary, premium tax credits are well targeted to people with low & moderate incomes who need the most help with health costs. Three-quarters of people getting the credits have incomes below 300% FPL (~$47K for an individual). >90% have incomes below 400% FPL (~$63K)
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
One more thread on a new provision in Senate reconciliation bill that Senate GOP will misleadingly tout as expanding access to home- and community-based services for seniors and people with disabilities (section 71123) but in context of the bill, it won't be meaningful (1/x)
June 28, 2025 at 5:24 PM
One more thread on a new provision in Senate reconciliation bill that Senate GOP will misleadingly tout as expanding access to home- and community-based services for seniors and people with disabilities (section 71123) but in context of the bill, it won't be meaningful (1/x)
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
New CBO estimates of reconciliation bill reported by Budget Committee Sunday: gross #Medicaid cuts of $792B before interactions with ACA changes. Total of $803B in net health care cuts. Estimates don't account for Rules Committee changes with even harsher Medicaid cuts. www.cbo.gov/publication/...?
Estimated Budgetary Effects of a Bill to Provide for Reconciliation Pursuant to Title II of H. Con. Res. 14, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
As ordered reported by the House Committee on the Budget on May 18, 2025
www.cbo.gov
May 20, 2025 at 4:09 PM
New CBO estimates of reconciliation bill reported by Budget Committee Sunday: gross #Medicaid cuts of $792B before interactions with ACA changes. Total of $803B in net health care cuts. Estimates don't account for Rules Committee changes with even harsher Medicaid cuts. www.cbo.gov/publication/...?
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
My new @kff.org quick take discusses the House's proposed penalty to reduce Medicaid financing for states covering undocumented immigrants with their own funds and identifies which states would be affected:
www.kff.org/quick-take/w...
www.kff.org/quick-take/w...
Which States Would Be Affected by a House Proposal to Cut Federal Medicaid Funding for States That Cover Undocumented Immigrants?
KFF data show that as of April 2025, 14 states plus DC use state-only dollars to provide health coverage to children regardless of immigration status, including 7 states that also do so for at least s...
www.kff.org
May 13, 2025 at 4:10 PM
My new @kff.org quick take discusses the House's proposed penalty to reduce Medicaid financing for states covering undocumented immigrants with their own funds and identifies which states would be affected:
www.kff.org/quick-take/w...
www.kff.org/quick-take/w...
Excellent piece by @urbaninstitute.bsky.social on the distributional effects of tax cut extensions paid for by cuts to #Medicaid and #SNAP. Lowest income families would face losses in income after taxes and benefits and highest income familes would see large gains. www.urban.org/research/pub...
Who Gains and Who Loses under a Tax Cut Extension with Medicaid and SNAP Spending Reductions
In this brief, we estimate the combined impact of three major proposals on taxpayers’ after-tax, after-transfer incomes to show who would benefit and who would lose.
www.urban.org
May 9, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Excellent piece by @urbaninstitute.bsky.social on the distributional effects of tax cut extensions paid for by cuts to #Medicaid and #SNAP. Lowest income families would face losses in income after taxes and benefits and highest income familes would see large gains. www.urban.org/research/pub...
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
Thread on my new blog on how taking a step back and looking at the combined effect of several #Medicaid cuts under consideration by House GOP yields a clear conclusion: they would together end the #Medicaid expansion and terminate coverage for 21 million people: ccf.georgetown.edu/2025/05/01/c...
Combined Impact of Medicaid Cuts Under Consideration Would End Expansion and Take Away Coverage for Nearly 21 Million Low-Income People
In analyzing the draconian Medicaid cuts under consideration by House Republicans for inclusion in budget reconciliation legislation, it is often easier to examine each specific proposal in isolati…
ccf.georgetown.edu
May 1, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Thread on my new blog on how taking a step back and looking at the combined effect of several #Medicaid cuts under consideration by House GOP yields a clear conclusion: they would together end the #Medicaid expansion and terminate coverage for 21 million people: ccf.georgetown.edu/2025/05/01/c...
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
Trump administration proposal would be "death by a thousand cuts" for the Affordable Care Act - up to 2M people would lose coverage, millions more would face higher costs. @jasonlevitis.bsky.social @clinkeyoung.bsky.social and I sum it up: georgetown.app.box.com/file/1831720...
Fact Sheet on CMS Marketplace Rule -- Final 4-11-25.pdf | Powered by Box
georgetown.app.box.com
April 17, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Trump administration proposal would be "death by a thousand cuts" for the Affordable Care Act - up to 2M people would lose coverage, millions more would face higher costs. @jasonlevitis.bsky.social @clinkeyoung.bsky.social and I sum it up: georgetown.app.box.com/file/1831720...
Latest estimates on economic impact on states of proposed cuts to Medicaid and SNAP
New @commonwealthfund.org estimates from GW researchers on economic impact of $880 billion in #Medicaid cuts. Includes single-year state-by-state effects on economic activity, job losses and state tax revenues: Also includes impact of SNAP cuts. www.commonwealthfund.org/publications...
March 25, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Latest estimates on economic impact on states of proposed cuts to Medicaid and SNAP
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
What are the effects of dismantling the Department of #Education on students with #disabilities?
An Urban Wire post examines the potential impacts of disrupting the Department of Education’s key functions of enforcing critical civil rights laws and distributing IDEA #funding to the states.
An Urban Wire post examines the potential impacts of disrupting the Department of Education’s key functions of enforcing critical civil rights laws and distributing IDEA #funding to the states.
How Dismantling the Education Department Could Affect Disabled Students across the US
Though states and local governments are primarily responsible for K–12 education, the US Department of Education is critical to ensuring disabled children in every community have access to a free, app...
www.urban.org
March 21, 2025 at 6:45 PM
What are the effects of dismantling the Department of #Education on students with #disabilities?
An Urban Wire post examines the potential impacts of disrupting the Department of Education’s key functions of enforcing critical civil rights laws and distributing IDEA #funding to the states.
An Urban Wire post examines the potential impacts of disrupting the Department of Education’s key functions of enforcing critical civil rights laws and distributing IDEA #funding to the states.
Interested in promoting upward mobility? Come hear about how to shape policy making and create change in your community with my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues.
Join Urban on 3/26 @ 1 p.m. ET for a virtual #event that will explore the Upward Mobility Framework. Participants will hear from speakers who are applying the Upward Mobility Framework to shape programming & policymaking and gain insights on how to create change in their #communities. #LiveatUrban
Advancing Residents' Upward Mobility by Fostering Dignity and Belonging, Economic Success, and Power and Autonomy
Join us for an interactive session for local leaders where we’ll explore the Urban Institute’s Upward Mobility Framework, a research-backed model designed to advance upward mobility and racial equity ...
upward-mobility.urban.org
March 21, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Interested in promoting upward mobility? Come hear about how to shape policy making and create change in your community with my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues.
Important new research on the impact of federal work requirements for Medicaid beneficiares on coverage from my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues @jh4.bsky.social, Genevieve Kenney, and Michael Karpman.
According to #research, about 5 million expansion adults could lose #Medicaid in 2026 under a federal work requirement similar to the Limit, Save, Grow Act.
Urban experts assessed the potential coverage losses under #federal Medicaid work requirements drawing on lessons from two states.
Urban experts assessed the potential coverage losses under #federal Medicaid work requirements drawing on lessons from two states.
Assessing Potential Coverage Losses among Medicaid Expansion Enrollees under a Federal Medicaid Work Requirement
We assess potential coverage losses under federal Medicaid work requirements for adults ages 19 to 55 enrolled in the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion.
www.urban.org
March 18, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Important new research on the impact of federal work requirements for Medicaid beneficiares on coverage from my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues @jh4.bsky.social, Genevieve Kenney, and Michael Karpman.
Dont' miss this timely virtual event ! Featuring @edwincpark.bsky.social, Genevieve Kenney, Sara Rosenbaum @milkeninstitute.org , and @greggbloche.bsky.social
Proposed cuts to #Medicaid could endanger #health insurance for low-income Americans.
Join Urban on 3/10 @ 2:00 p.m. ET for a virtual event that will explore these cuts’ potential effects on the program and its more than 70 million beneficiaries. #LiveatUrban
Join Urban on 3/10 @ 2:00 p.m. ET for a virtual event that will explore these cuts’ potential effects on the program and its more than 70 million beneficiaries. #LiveatUrban
Downsizing Medicaid: How Proposed Cuts Could Endanger Health Insurance for Low-Income Americans
The Urban Institute–Georgetown Law Series on Health Justice features conversations with researchers and legal professionals about how we can reduce widespread disparities in medical care and health in...
www.urban.org
March 7, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Dont' miss this timely virtual event ! Featuring @edwincpark.bsky.social, Genevieve Kenney, Sara Rosenbaum @milkeninstitute.org , and @greggbloche.bsky.social
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
Reupping my blog from yesterday. The major #Medicaid cuts under consideration to meet the budget resolution target of at least $880b in cuts are the same Medicaid cuts from failed 2017 repeal bills. House GOP leaders are just trying to disguise them as anti-fraud. ccf.georgetown.edu/2025/02/24/s...
February 25, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Reupping my blog from yesterday. The major #Medicaid cuts under consideration to meet the budget resolution target of at least $880b in cuts are the same Medicaid cuts from failed 2017 repeal bills. House GOP leaders are just trying to disguise them as anti-fraud. ccf.georgetown.edu/2025/02/24/s...
E&C committee was asked to cut $880 billion to make way for tax cuts. Latest paper from my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues on what would happen to insurance coverage if the 90 percent FMAP for the Medicaid expansion was eliminated. www.urban.org/research/pub...
Reducing Federal Support for Medicaid Expansion Would Shift Costs to States and Likely Result in Coverage Losses
Leadership in the House of Representatives has proposed substantial federal funding cuts to the Medicaid program over the next 10 years. This report focuses on the proposal to reduce the 90 percent fe...
www.urban.org
February 25, 2025 at 4:48 PM
E&C committee was asked to cut $880 billion to make way for tax cuts. Latest paper from my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues on what would happen to insurance coverage if the 90 percent FMAP for the Medicaid expansion was eliminated. www.urban.org/research/pub...
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
The US DOT says it's planning to prioritize areas with high marriage & high birth rates for funding.
Our new analysis @urbaninstitute.bsky.social shows this would disproportionately fund:
—Communities with a higher white resident share
—Low-density areas
—High-income areas
—Car-dependent areas
Our new analysis @urbaninstitute.bsky.social shows this would disproportionately fund:
—Communities with a higher white resident share
—Low-density areas
—High-income areas
—Car-dependent areas
DOT’s Plan to Distribute Funding by Birth and Marriage Rates Would Leave Communities Most In Need Behind
If enacted, the new US Department of Transportation memo would prioritize funding to whiter, higher-income, more car-dependent areas over communities of color and people who walk, bike, or take public...
www.urban.org
February 10, 2025 at 4:04 PM
The US DOT says it's planning to prioritize areas with high marriage & high birth rates for funding.
Our new analysis @urbaninstitute.bsky.social shows this would disproportionately fund:
—Communities with a higher white resident share
—Low-density areas
—High-income areas
—Car-dependent areas
Our new analysis @urbaninstitute.bsky.social shows this would disproportionately fund:
—Communities with a higher white resident share
—Low-density areas
—High-income areas
—Car-dependent areas
Very excited about this new collaboration between @urbaninstitute.bsky.social and Georgetown Law! Keep your eyes on this space!
Delighted to announce the online launch of the Urban Institute/Georgetown Law Project on Health Equity (Brian Smedley, Yael Cannon, & I will co-direct) - we're engaging leading thinkers to craft remedies for our health system's profound disparities - more to come ... www.urban.org/projects/urb...
Urban Institute-Georgetown Law Project on Health Equity and the Law
www.urban.org
January 4, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Very excited about this new collaboration between @urbaninstitute.bsky.social and Georgetown Law! Keep your eyes on this space!
Congress is considering extending the enhanced premium tax credits. According to my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues, households' spending on insurance premiums would surge if the EPTCs are not extended. www.urban.org/research/pub...
Household Spending on Premiums Would Surge if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire
In this brief, we estimate household premiums for people with Marketplace coverage in 2025 with and without enhanced PTCs by income and state to gauge the impact on families if the more generous credi...
www.urban.org
December 9, 2024 at 4:00 PM
Congress is considering extending the enhanced premium tax credits. According to my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues, households' spending on insurance premiums would surge if the EPTCs are not extended. www.urban.org/research/pub...
Thanks @ddiamond.bsky.social ! If you want to see how many people would lose coverage in your state check out this map from my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues: www.urban.org/data-tools/h...
December 6, 2024 at 10:44 PM
Thanks @ddiamond.bsky.social ! If you want to see how many people would lose coverage in your state check out this map from my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues: www.urban.org/data-tools/h...
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
The big three public health programs, Medicaid, Medicare and the Marketplace ACA subsidies are lifting about 39 million people out of poverty.
Census Health Inclusive Poverty Measure incorporates insurance into poverty measurement. 2 things jumped out to me from this measure
1) The Marketplaces bring 1.8 million people out of poverty
2) Poverty is even more concentrated in states that didn't expand Medicaid
www.census.gov/library/work...
1) The Marketplaces bring 1.8 million people out of poverty
2) Poverty is even more concentrated in states that didn't expand Medicaid
www.census.gov/library/work...
November 25, 2024 at 3:38 PM
The big three public health programs, Medicaid, Medicare and the Marketplace ACA subsidies are lifting about 39 million people out of poverty.
What the new administration could mean for health related lawsuits including preventive services, MTALA, medication abortion, family planning and more...https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/how-pending-health-related-lawsuits-could-be-impacted-by-the-incoming-trump-administration/
How Pending Health-Related Lawsuits Could be Impacted by the Incoming Trump Administration | KFF
This brief provides an overview of current lawsuits in health policy including preventive services, abortion care, gender affirming care, Medicare drug price negotiations, nursing home staffing rules,...
www.kff.org
November 25, 2024 at 2:56 PM
What the new administration could mean for health related lawsuits including preventive services, MTALA, medication abortion, family planning and more...https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/how-pending-health-related-lawsuits-could-be-impacted-by-the-incoming-trump-administration/
Enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025. See my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues' great interative map of who would lose coverage. www.urban.org/data-tools/h...
Who Would Lose Coverage If Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire?
The expiration of the pandemic-era enhanced premium tax credits risks leaving 4 million people without health insurance.
www.urban.org
November 21, 2024 at 1:57 AM
Enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025. See my @urbaninstitute.bsky.social @urbaninstitute.bsky.social colleagues' great interative map of who would lose coverage. www.urban.org/data-tools/h...
In case you are interested in what the public thinks about the importance of the Medicaid program, look here:
While the Republicans consider block granting/capping Medicaid -- a radical change that would gut the program over time -- the public is not in favor of this idea.
November 19, 2024 at 4:56 PM
In case you are interested in what the public thinks about the importance of the Medicaid program, look here:
Reposted by Lisa Dubay
Advocates and experts are working to rally support for Medicaid, citing its coverage for kids, rural Americans and the disabled.
“Medicaid is the backbone of many aspects of our health system,” @joanalker1.bsky.social told me, noting that about 1 in 4 Americans are covered through the program.
“Medicaid is the backbone of many aspects of our health system,” @joanalker1.bsky.social told me, noting that about 1 in 4 Americans are covered through the program.
November 19, 2024 at 2:44 PM
Advocates and experts are working to rally support for Medicaid, citing its coverage for kids, rural Americans and the disabled.
“Medicaid is the backbone of many aspects of our health system,” @joanalker1.bsky.social told me, noting that about 1 in 4 Americans are covered through the program.
“Medicaid is the backbone of many aspects of our health system,” @joanalker1.bsky.social told me, noting that about 1 in 4 Americans are covered through the program.