BCOM has hit the first of what seemed like a reasonable target given the massive base. Parabolic moves can be challenging. Market can pull back massively and yet have done nothing wrong from a long-term trend perspective. Not a bad spot to lighten up a tad if you're so inclined.

A classic retest of the breakout last month and now new highs in BCOM today. What percent allocation do you think most investors have to commodities . . . zero or close to?

While there was a fair amount of damage done today in more speculative corners of the market, the S&P itself has not made a lower low and is still in a clearly defined uptrend. But remember, the sellers lie lower.

In that same vein, I've kept a version of Norman Fosback's High Low Logic Index for years. The weekly 10 EMA is getting close to the 5% danger zone identified by Fosback. Last week's raw HLL reading was ~7.789. Crosses above 7.78 haven't been good for forward returns in my data since 1937.

The sellers lie lower.

• When that sell threshold is breached, just get out. This is a time when patience may not be rewarded. Everybody is playing the same game and it can turn quicker than you might imagine, especially in modern markets with the amount of leverage around. www.balsamresearch.com/blog/retrace...

• Consider using a mechanical exit rule. 8% has worked well historically across a range of equity indices (not individual names). www.balsamresearch.com/blog/missing...

Perhaps even more amazing to me is that after the Trump tariff news hit the tape on Friday, they still bought 1.88 calls for every put from 10:50AM ET into the close. Of course they could easily bounce from here, but in my experience, lasting bottoms aren't made with people buying calls at 2x puts.

It's only happened once before in S&P futures (which tend to be a little noisier), right before the final punishing end to the 2007-08 bear market.