Lawson McWhorter
@lawsonmcw.bsky.social
Lived through a few market cycles and have the gray hairs to prove it. Not investment advice.
#$CAT is 138% over its 200 week SMA, the most extreme stretch in over 60 years of data. Things are so extended it could get cut in half and still be above the average. CAT and Goldman combined are 21% of the price-weighted DJIA, so any reversal could have an outsized impact.
February 11, 2026 at 10:46 PM
#$CAT is 138% over its 200 week SMA, the most extreme stretch in over 60 years of data. Things are so extended it could get cut in half and still be above the average. CAT and Goldman combined are 21% of the price-weighted DJIA, so any reversal could have an outsized impact.
Weekly NYSE A/D line hit a record high despite the S&P closing down on the week. This setup has occurred 99 times prior in my data back to 1940 and has a decent upside bias for the following week.
February 7, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Weekly NYSE A/D line hit a record high despite the S&P closing down on the week. This setup has occurred 99 times prior in my data back to 1940 and has a decent upside bias for the following week.
Interesting to watch the strength in #$RSP today. Back in the 2000 TMT bubble, the equal-weighted S&P peaked over a full year after the cap-weighted S&P. Still didn't prevent it from having a 40% drawdown in the end.
February 4, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Interesting to watch the strength in #$RSP today. Back in the 2000 TMT bubble, the equal-weighted S&P peaked over a full year after the cap-weighted S&P. Still didn't prevent it from having a 40% drawdown in the end.
Today the ISEE call/put ratio broke its record streak of 29 consecutive days closing >= 200 (i.e. 2 opening calls traded for every put). The 21-day SMA recently hit a level only exceeded by a single day in Jan '25. At least by this measure, options traders are all-in.
February 3, 2026 at 10:20 PM
Today the ISEE call/put ratio broke its record streak of 29 consecutive days closing >= 200 (i.e. 2 opening calls traded for every put). The 21-day SMA recently hit a level only exceeded by a single day in Jan '25. At least by this measure, options traders are all-in.
BCOM has hit the first of what seemed like a reasonable target given the massive base. Parabolic moves can be challenging. Market can pull back massively and yet have done nothing wrong from a long-term trend perspective. Not a bad spot to lighten up a tad if you're so inclined.
January 29, 2026 at 3:29 PM
BCOM has hit the first of what seemed like a reasonable target given the massive base. Parabolic moves can be challenging. Market can pull back massively and yet have done nothing wrong from a long-term trend perspective. Not a bad spot to lighten up a tad if you're so inclined.
Down 2% days followed by up 1% days in the S&P are usually the kind of thing you see near bottoms, not within 2% of all-time highs. Since 1928, it's only happened 9 times prior to today. Batting average the next day is not good. Small sample size though, so more of a curiosity than anything.
January 21, 2026 at 10:10 PM
Down 2% days followed by up 1% days in the S&P are usually the kind of thing you see near bottoms, not within 2% of all-time highs. Since 1928, it's only happened 9 times prior to today. Batting average the next day is not good. Small sample size though, so more of a curiosity than anything.
High yield credit spreads as measured by the Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield OAS Index just hit a reading of 2.53. You have to go back to June 2007 to find lower readings. I'm sure it's nothing 🙄. Party on Garth!
January 16, 2026 at 3:53 PM
High yield credit spreads as measured by the Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield OAS Index just hit a reading of 2.53. You have to go back to June 2007 to find lower readings. I'm sure it's nothing 🙄. Party on Garth!
A classic retest of the breakout last month and now new highs in BCOM today. What percent allocation do you think most investors have to commodities . . . zero or close to?
December 2, 2025 at 3:05 AM
A classic retest of the breakout last month and now new highs in BCOM today. What percent allocation do you think most investors have to commodities . . . zero or close to?
On a closing basis, the S&P is only down 2.23% from its high. But at 12 days, this is the longest amount of time it's gone without making a new high since the Apr lows. The longer it goes without making a new high may be an important clue.
November 13, 2025 at 10:20 PM
On a closing basis, the S&P is only down 2.23% from its high. But at 12 days, this is the longest amount of time it's gone without making a new high since the Apr lows. The longer it goes without making a new high may be an important clue.
In that same vein, I've kept a version of Norman Fosback's High Low Logic Index for years. The weekly 10 EMA is getting close to the 5% danger zone identified by Fosback. Last week's raw HLL reading was ~7.789. Crosses above 7.78 haven't been good for forward returns in my data since 1937.
November 11, 2025 at 11:09 PM
In that same vein, I've kept a version of Norman Fosback's High Low Logic Index for years. The weekly 10 EMA is getting close to the 5% danger zone identified by Fosback. Last week's raw HLL reading was ~7.789. Crosses above 7.78 haven't been good for forward returns in my data since 1937.
Don't look now, but the Bloomberg Commodity Index just broke out of a massive base making a new 2.75 year high. It's had a lot of head-fakes along with way, but today's move is pretty broad based. This should be good news for long-suffering CTA's.
November 10, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Don't look now, but the Bloomberg Commodity Index just broke out of a massive base making a new 2.75 year high. It's had a lot of head-fakes along with way, but today's move is pretty broad based. This should be good news for long-suffering CTA's.
The ISEE equity call/put indicator recently had a run of 19 consecutive days >= 200. The streak was broken with a relatively "bearish" reading of only 193, only to get right back at it the next five days in a row, including Friday with the S&P down 2.71%. This is very similar action of early 2025.
October 11, 2025 at 10:22 AM
The ISEE equity call/put indicator recently had a run of 19 consecutive days >= 200. The streak was broken with a relatively "bearish" reading of only 193, only to get right back at it the next five days in a row, including Friday with the S&P down 2.71%. This is very similar action of early 2025.
Declines of -2.5% or greater within two days of a one-year high are extremely rare. The S&P tends to follow through to the downside over the next few sessions, which sounds about right given the VaR shock that will likely result in systematic delevering.
October 11, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Declines of -2.5% or greater within two days of a one-year high are extremely rare. The S&P tends to follow through to the downside over the next few sessions, which sounds about right given the VaR shock that will likely result in systematic delevering.
Last Friday marked ten consecutive days of the ISEE call/put ratio closing greater than 200 (i.e. 2x opening call transactions vs puts). Sustained bursts of optimism like this in the past have usually marked the end of a move. Very small sample though so take it with a grain of salt.
September 22, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Last Friday marked ten consecutive days of the ISEE call/put ratio closing greater than 200 (i.e. 2x opening call transactions vs puts). Sustained bursts of optimism like this in the past have usually marked the end of a move. Very small sample though so take it with a grain of salt.
The S&P closed down by 59bps while NYSE breadth was positive all day. A "strong breadth pullback" where S&P was down 50bps or more while net NYSE breadth as a percent of issues traded was +10% or more has typically led to a decent bounce over the near term in my breadth data going back to 1932.
August 19, 2025 at 8:23 PM
The S&P closed down by 59bps while NYSE breadth was positive all day. A "strong breadth pullback" where S&P was down 50bps or more while net NYSE breadth as a percent of issues traded was +10% or more has typically led to a decent bounce over the near term in my breadth data going back to 1932.
Spot VIX just closed at the lowest level since Feb 19th, the closing high in the S&P before the last correction (what correction? I know, a distant memory now.) Coincidentally today also marks the seasonal low in VIX futures according to my seasonal work. VIX tends to trade higher into end of Oct.
July 23, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Spot VIX just closed at the lowest level since Feb 19th, the closing high in the S&P before the last correction (what correction? I know, a distant memory now.) Coincidentally today also marks the seasonal low in VIX futures according to my seasonal work. VIX tends to trade higher into end of Oct.
It's only happened once before in S&P futures (which tend to be a little noisier), right before the final punishing end to the 2007-08 bear market.
May 1, 2025 at 8:38 PM
It's only happened once before in S&P futures (which tend to be a little noisier), right before the final punishing end to the 2007-08 bear market.
Today marked eight consecutive up closes in the S&P 500 while still being below the 200 day moving average. Pretty rare but two days out, S&P has never closed up.
May 1, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Today marked eight consecutive up closes in the S&P 500 while still being below the 200 day moving average. Pretty rare but two days out, S&P has never closed up.
AAII bears printed 61.9 last week. Crosses above 61 are quite rare, with both prior events marking excellent buying opportunities.
April 6, 2025 at 2:26 PM
AAII bears printed 61.9 last week. Crosses above 61 are quite rare, with both prior events marking excellent buying opportunities.
Pretty nasty trendline break in high yield spreads. Longer-term chart for perspective.
April 1, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Pretty nasty trendline break in high yield spreads. Longer-term chart for perspective.
I've watched the CBOE equity put/call ratio a long time. I've never seen it close this low after a major sell-off. Granted it all took place in the afternoon, but a 0.45 reading is 12th percentile across all p/c data back to '97.
December 19, 2024 at 3:21 AM
I've watched the CBOE equity put/call ratio a long time. I've never seen it close this low after a major sell-off. Granted it all took place in the afternoon, but a 0.45 reading is 12th percentile across all p/c data back to '97.
It's fairly unusual to have such a large decline coming off all-time highs. The event study below shows -2.95% or greater declines that started within 1% of an all-time closing high, like today.
December 19, 2024 at 2:40 AM
It's fairly unusual to have such a large decline coming off all-time highs. The event study below shows -2.95% or greater declines that started within 1% of an all-time closing high, like today.
ISEE opened at 354 this morning and still managed to close at 266 despite the punishing selloff. This marked the 14th consecutive day closing above 200. The 50-day average is at levels coincident with the top in 2007. Zero fear despite the abysmal breadth and now price action to match. Incredible!
December 18, 2024 at 9:49 PM
ISEE opened at 354 this morning and still managed to close at 266 despite the punishing selloff. This marked the 14th consecutive day closing above 200. The 50-day average is at levels coincident with the top in 2007. Zero fear despite the abysmal breadth and now price action to match. Incredible!
Today marks the 10th consecutive day the ISEE call/put ratio has closed above 200. The only longer streak was in 2007 at 12 days which pretty much nailed the top. Sample size of one though so make of it what you will.
December 12, 2024 at 9:43 PM
Today marks the 10th consecutive day the ISEE call/put ratio has closed above 200. The only longer streak was in 2007 at 12 days which pretty much nailed the top. Sample size of one though so make of it what you will.