Lars Peder Haga
@larspederhaga.bsky.social
Associate Professor at the Air Force Academy, Norwegian Defence University College. Used to do Soviet history before I turned to Air Power studies.
8/9 As these will be new builds, they will have an expected service life probably beyond the 2060s. Ukraine's legacy Soviet aircraft are more or less beyond any reasonable life expectation - especially during wartime. Donated F-16s and Mirages are not much better off.
October 22, 2025 at 9:22 PM
8/9 As these will be new builds, they will have an expected service life probably beyond the 2060s. Ukraine's legacy Soviet aircraft are more or less beyond any reasonable life expectation - especially during wartime. Donated F-16s and Mirages are not much better off.
7/9 But the Gripen E is also an excellent combat aircraft, with modern sensors, electronic warfare capabilities and weapons that will make it a very dangerous opponent for the Flankers that will remain the backbone of the Russian Air Force for the next decades.
October 22, 2025 at 9:22 PM
7/9 But the Gripen E is also an excellent combat aircraft, with modern sensors, electronic warfare capabilities and weapons that will make it a very dangerous opponent for the Flankers that will remain the backbone of the Russian Air Force for the next decades.
6/9 It is developed from the bottom up for the concept of operations Sweden developed as a front line state during the Cold War. It is made for dispersed operations from austere airfields, for fast turnaround and servicing in the field by reservists.
October 22, 2025 at 9:22 PM
6/9 It is developed from the bottom up for the concept of operations Sweden developed as a front line state during the Cold War. It is made for dispersed operations from austere airfields, for fast turnaround and servicing in the field by reservists.
4/9 In this document, the Ukrainian Air Force suggested replacing all legacy Soviet combat aircraft with a single western Gen4+ type by 2035, with an initial low-rate purchase for training, testing and development purposes finished by 2025.
October 22, 2025 at 9:22 PM
4/9 In this document, the Ukrainian Air Force suggested replacing all legacy Soviet combat aircraft with a single western Gen4+ type by 2035, with an initial low-rate purchase for training, testing and development purposes finished by 2025.
3/9 In that respect, it is a belated realization of the Ukrainian Air Force's road map from 2020, "Air Force Vision 2035".
October 22, 2025 at 9:22 PM
3/9 In that respect, it is a belated realization of the Ukrainian Air Force's road map from 2020, "Air Force Vision 2035".
1/9 A few comments on today's announcement of Ukraine's intent to buy 100-150 SAAB Gripen-E multi-role combat jets.
October 22, 2025 at 9:22 PM
1/9 A few comments on today's announcement of Ukraine's intent to buy 100-150 SAAB Gripen-E multi-role combat jets.
1/7 The Mig-31BM Foxhound in the picture published by @forsvarsmakten.se on the other place has tail nr Blue 67. According to my records, blue 67 has been used by two different Russian units:
September 20, 2025 at 11:27 AM
1/7 The Mig-31BM Foxhound in the picture published by @forsvarsmakten.se on the other place has tail nr Blue 67. According to my records, blue 67 has been used by two different Russian units:
It self-identified as USAF on Flightradar
September 6, 2025 at 9:26 PM
It self-identified as USAF on Flightradar
August 17, 2025 at 10:51 AM
2/3 They are also parked in the same spot where they have been visible in Google Earth since 2015. These are parts donors, aircraft slated for upgrading to A-50U standard, or perhaps just waiting to be scrapped.
June 5, 2025 at 11:43 AM
2/3 They are also parked in the same spot where they have been visible in Google Earth since 2015. These are parts donors, aircraft slated for upgrading to A-50U standard, or perhaps just waiting to be scrapped.
1/3 SBU released footage from the attack on Ivanovo. As noted by others before me, the attacked airframes lack engines and frankly look like sh*t.
June 5, 2025 at 11:43 AM
1/3 SBU released footage from the attack on Ivanovo. As noted by others before me, the attacked airframes lack engines and frankly look like sh*t.
This picture is making rounds now. It is obviously an AI-generated fake or for "illustrative purposes". My understanding is it originated in Ukrainian media. Using Gen AI like this destroys credibility and is really unhelpful.
June 5, 2025 at 7:07 AM
This picture is making rounds now. It is obviously an AI-generated fake or for "illustrative purposes". My understanding is it originated in Ukrainian media. Using Gen AI like this destroys credibility and is really unhelpful.
4/5 There really aren't any practical detours that will take heavy vehicles around Olenyegorsk in a "drone-safe" distance on the way to Murmansk.
June 1, 2025 at 9:33 PM
4/5 There really aren't any practical detours that will take heavy vehicles around Olenyegorsk in a "drone-safe" distance on the way to Murmansk.
3/5 Monchegorskoye Shosse runs in parallell with R-21, the main route from St. Petersburg to Murmansk.
June 1, 2025 at 9:33 PM
3/5 Monchegorskoye Shosse runs in parallell with R-21, the main route from St. Petersburg to Murmansk.
1/5 Good points. The truck that launched the one-way-attack small UAS towards Olenya stood a little to the North of this gas station:
June 1, 2025 at 9:33 PM
1/5 Good points. The truck that launched the one-way-attack small UAS towards Olenya stood a little to the North of this gas station:
FWIW the Russian MOD indeed reports a failed "terrorist" attack on a military air base in Amur oblast, i.e. Ukrainka.
June 1, 2025 at 3:51 PM
FWIW the Russian MOD indeed reports a failed "terrorist" attack on a military air base in Amur oblast, i.e. Ukrainka.
6/6 My best guess is that the containers are ground control stations for UAVs, probably Forpost. I have been looking for reference imagery, without success. The best i could find was this interior shot from a propaganda clip.
May 10, 2025 at 8:45 AM
6/6 My best guess is that the containers are ground control stations for UAVs, probably Forpost. I have been looking for reference imagery, without success. The best i could find was this interior shot from a propaganda clip.
5/6 Summer 2023, the pad is ready, surrounded by a double fence, and the white containers are placed inside. In the North East corner of the "old" pad, the outline of a Forpost UAV is visible.
May 10, 2025 at 8:45 AM
5/6 Summer 2023, the pad is ready, surrounded by a double fence, and the white containers are placed inside. In the North East corner of the "old" pad, the outline of a Forpost UAV is visible.
4/6 In the summer of 2022, there is something going on to the South of the concrete pad in the South-Eastern corner of the runway. A new pad is being built from elements. Note four white containers between the old and new pads.
May 10, 2025 at 8:45 AM
4/6 In the summer of 2022, there is something going on to the South of the concrete pad in the South-Eastern corner of the runway. A new pad is being built from elements. Note four white containers between the old and new pads.
3/6 This almost seems like an unnecessary "luxury" for the Forpost, which seems to be content with rough runways. Maybe they want to avoid excessive wear and tear in a training unit that flies a lot?
May 10, 2025 at 8:45 AM
3/6 This almost seems like an unnecessary "luxury" for the Forpost, which seems to be content with rough runways. Maybe they want to avoid excessive wear and tear in a training unit that flies a lot?
2/6 I only have Google Earth to work from for imagery, so this will be very basic stuff. No later than 2019, the northernmost part of the runway was repaired. Total length of the upgraded runway is 600meters, providing a solid margin for the Forpost's reported 250m minimum runway requirement.
May 10, 2025 at 8:45 AM
2/6 I only have Google Earth to work from for imagery, so this will be very basic stuff. No later than 2019, the northernmost part of the runway was repaired. Total length of the upgraded runway is 600meters, providing a solid margin for the Forpost's reported 250m minimum runway requirement.
10/10 That puts the impact behind somewhere to the South of the large building at maps.app.goo.gl/G5Ztu93Lyp3X..., marked in the picture. There are several freestanding buildings there (possible HQs?), and what appears to be some kind of electrical substation.
March 14, 2025 at 7:52 PM
10/10 That puts the impact behind somewhere to the South of the large building at maps.app.goo.gl/G5Ztu93Lyp3X..., marked in the picture. There are several freestanding buildings there (possible HQs?), and what appears to be some kind of electrical substation.
9/10 As to the strike, the user Dominik in reply to @antongerashchenko.bsky.social post on Xitter geolocated it in what appears to be the main training centre.
March 14, 2025 at 7:52 PM
9/10 As to the strike, the user Dominik in reply to @antongerashchenko.bsky.social post on Xitter geolocated it in what appears to be the main training centre.
5/10 At the time of opening, the centre supposedly had no less than 158 simulators - among them for T-72B3 and T-80 tanks and BMP-2 and BMD-2 Infantry fighting vehicles.
March 14, 2025 at 7:52 PM
5/10 At the time of opening, the centre supposedly had no less than 158 simulators - among them for T-72B3 and T-80 tanks and BMP-2 and BMD-2 Infantry fighting vehicles.
4/10 The centre was supposed to carry out between three and six training cycles for brigades every year. A training cycle should last 7-8 weeks.
March 14, 2025 at 7:52 PM
4/10 The centre was supposed to carry out between three and six training cycles for brigades every year. A training cycle should last 7-8 weeks.