Michael Kovrig
@kovrig.bsky.social
Senior Adviser, Asia @crisisgroup.org | Strategic narratives on China, Indo-Pacific, geopolitics, geoeconomics, philosophy and values. Ex-diplomat. Don't start none, won't be none. 实事求是。己所不欲,勿施於人 https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelkovrig
Still, enlightened support and engagement from partners can make a material difference. If the U.S. Congress would pass its proposed Pacific Partnership Act, that would be a step in the right direction.
www.congress.gov
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Still, enlightened support and engagement from partners can make a material difference. If the U.S. Congress would pass its proposed Pacific Partnership Act, that would be a step in the right direction.
At September’s PIF Leaders Meeting, innovative policymaking included the “Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration” and new partnership rules setting norms for a region free from militarization and coercion, upholding international law and sovereignty. Communique PDF:
forumsec.org
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
At September’s PIF Leaders Meeting, innovative policymaking included the “Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration” and new partnership rules setting norms for a region free from militarization and coercion, upholding international law and sovereignty. Communique PDF:
Pacific officials and journalists express deep concern about widespread reports of graft and influence activities deployed to advance Chinese state objectives—a suite of tactics remarkably similar to what Philip Zelikow and his co-authors have defined in @foreignaffairs.com as #StrategicCorruption.
The Rise of Strategic Corruption
A number of countries—China and Russia, in particular—are turning corruption into a weapon on the global stage.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Pacific officials and journalists express deep concern about widespread reports of graft and influence activities deployed to advance Chinese state objectives—a suite of tactics remarkably similar to what Philip Zelikow and his co-authors have defined in @foreignaffairs.com as #StrategicCorruption.
As military scholars Andrew Erickson and Joel Wuthnow
have noted, Chinese analysts have adopted the American concept of island chains that serve as springboards for Western military, milestones for the PLA to measure its own force projection, and concentric chains of containment China must break.
have noted, Chinese analysts have adopted the American concept of island chains that serve as springboards for Western military, milestones for the PLA to measure its own force projection, and concentric chains of containment China must break.
“Barriers, Springboards and Benchmarks: China Conceptualizes the Pacific ‘Island Chains’”—Published as Lead Article in The China Quarterly | Andrew S. Erickson
www.andrewerickson.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
As military scholars Andrew Erickson and Joel Wuthnow
have noted, Chinese analysts have adopted the American concept of island chains that serve as springboards for Western military, milestones for the PLA to measure its own force projection, and concentric chains of containment China must break.
have noted, Chinese analysts have adopted the American concept of island chains that serve as springboards for Western military, milestones for the PLA to measure its own force projection, and concentric chains of containment China must break.
A Chinese presence in the Pacific also expands its ability to interfere with U.S. efforts to assemble and sustain Indo-Pacific coalitions:
The Case for a Pacific Defense Pact
America needs a new Asian alliance to counter China.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
A Chinese presence in the Pacific also expands its ability to interfere with U.S. efforts to assemble and sustain Indo-Pacific coalitions:
The PLAN also seeks to prevent America from acting as an offshore balancer
The Case for Offshore Balancing
The United States should forgo efforts to remake other societies and concentrate on preserving U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere and countering potential hegemons elsewhere. Such an “offshore b...
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
The PLAN also seeks to prevent America from acting as an offshore balancer
China’s Pacific gambit is part of its efforts to escape the constraints of a continental power and become a maritime great power, as this recent @foreignaffairs.com essay argues:
By Land or by Sea
Continental power, maritime power, and the fight for a new world order.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
China’s Pacific gambit is part of its efforts to escape the constraints of a continental power and become a maritime great power, as this recent @foreignaffairs.com essay argues:
My essay builds on some excellent earlier @foreignaffairs.com articles by Charles Edel
and Kathryn Paik as well as that of many other Pacific experts, to whom I have a deep debt of gratitude for sharing their insights.
and Kathryn Paik as well as that of many other Pacific experts, to whom I have a deep debt of gratitude for sharing their insights.
How to Counter China’s Influence in the South Pacific
The United States and key regional allies are finally sharpening their focus on strategic competition with China for influence in the South Pacific.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
My essay builds on some excellent earlier @foreignaffairs.com articles by Charles Edel
and Kathryn Paik as well as that of many other Pacific experts, to whom I have a deep debt of gratitude for sharing their insights.
and Kathryn Paik as well as that of many other Pacific experts, to whom I have a deep debt of gratitude for sharing their insights.
Together, they should work to strengthen governance, transparency and regional cohesion, step up efforts to enhance expertise on China and national security, support independent media and civil society, and counter foreign propaganda and interference.
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Together, they should work to strengthen governance, transparency and regional cohesion, step up efforts to enhance expertise on China and national security, support independent media and civil society, and counter foreign propaganda and interference.
To balance and constrain China’s growing influence, Pacific Islands and their other partners should do more to implement the Pacific Islands Forum’s Boe Declaration, 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, and new Ocean of Peace Declaration, all of which reflectPacific consensus on priorities.
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
To balance and constrain China’s growing influence, Pacific Islands and their other partners should do more to implement the Pacific Islands Forum’s Boe Declaration, 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, and new Ocean of Peace Declaration, all of which reflectPacific consensus on priorities.
For Western powers, increased Chinese influence, strategic infrastructure and militarisation there could complicate intervention in potential conflicts over flashpoints such as the South China Sea and Taiwan, sap resources and put stress on alliances.
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
For Western powers, increased Chinese influence, strategic infrastructure and militarisation there could complicate intervention in potential conflicts over flashpoints such as the South China Sea and Taiwan, sap resources and put stress on alliances.
The twelve sovereign Pacific Island countries and several territories are strategically important for global fisheries, maritime security and a stable Asia-Pacific balance of power.
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
The twelve sovereign Pacific Island countries and several territories are strategically important for global fisheries, maritime security and a stable Asia-Pacific balance of power.
I think it’s part of a PRC island chain strategy that aims to dominate the first island chain, disrupt Western powers in the second, and eventually be able to divert and distract them in the third.
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
I think it’s part of a PRC island chain strategy that aims to dominate the first island chain, disrupt Western powers in the second, and eventually be able to divert and distract them in the third.
The Pacific Islands depend on foreign aid and see major power strategic rivalry as a means of attracting attention and resources. China is promoting itself as an alternative to traditional partners as it tries to establish a sphere of maritime dominance and prevent Western rivals from deterring it.
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
The Pacific Islands depend on foreign aid and see major power strategic rivalry as a means of attracting attention and resources. China is promoting itself as an alternative to traditional partners as it tries to establish a sphere of maritime dominance and prevent Western rivals from deterring it.
While China’s deepening involvement is expanding economic opportunities, its statecraft is also undermining Pacific nations’ democratic governance, accountability and national sovereignty, inducing corruption and elite capture, and roiling Pacific geopolitics.
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
While China’s deepening involvement is expanding economic opportunities, its statecraft is also undermining Pacific nations’ democratic governance, accountability and national sovereignty, inducing corruption and elite capture, and roiling Pacific geopolitics.
#ChinaPacific #PacificIslands #BluePacific #OceanOfPeace #Oceania #CCP #IndoPacific #ChinaAustralia #ChinaNewZealand #ChinaUS #geopolitics #navy #SLOC #StrategicRivalry
The Pacific Islands Challenge
In America’s tug of war with China, oceanic democracy is caught in the middle.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Bottom line: it's not a call for mutual understanding—it’s a demand to accept Beijing’s political conditions. China’s shift from “Wolf Warrior” aggression to a velvet-glove approach aims to reset the narrative, not the power dynamics. 3/4
October 16, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Bottom line: it's not a call for mutual understanding—it’s a demand to accept Beijing’s political conditions. China’s shift from “Wolf Warrior” aggression to a velvet-glove approach aims to reset the narrative, not the power dynamics. 3/4
In a new op-ed for the National Post and more detailed Substack post (linked in the comments), I decode the Party-speak behind the charm offensive to explain what the Chinese Communist Party's real agenda is. (Spoiler alert: the correct perception is not the one they want you to have.) 2/4
October 16, 2025 at 5:26 PM
In a new op-ed for the National Post and more detailed Substack post (linked in the comments), I decode the Party-speak behind the charm offensive to explain what the Chinese Communist Party's real agenda is. (Spoiler alert: the correct perception is not the one they want you to have.) 2/4
People's Daily coverage and photos of the meeting here. Note that Li called for Canada to have a "correct" perception of China. More on what that means later en.people.cn/n3/2025/0924...
Chinese premier says willing to work with Canada to improve ties - People's Daily Online
Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in New York, the United Sta
en.people.cn
September 26, 2025 at 10:50 PM
People's Daily coverage and photos of the meeting here. Note that Li called for Canada to have a "correct" perception of China. More on what that means later en.people.cn/n3/2025/0924...