Michael Kovrig
@kovrig.bsky.social
Senior Adviser, Asia @crisisgroup.org | Strategic narratives on China, Indo-Pacific, geopolitics, geoeconomics, philosophy and values. Ex-diplomat. Don't start none, won't be none. 实事求是。己所不欲,勿施於人 https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelkovrig
PM Mark Carney’s trip to China raised a key moral and strategic question: how to restore diplomatic channels without tacitly accepting what the CCP has done to harm Canadians and violate Canada’s sovereignty? That question came up when I spoke with Alex Pierson on AM640 about calls to “move on.”
February 11, 2026 at 5:58 PM
PM Mark Carney’s trip to China raised a key moral and strategic question: how to restore diplomatic channels without tacitly accepting what the CCP has done to harm Canadians and violate Canada’s sovereignty? That question came up when I spoke with Alex Pierson on AM640 about calls to “move on.”
Canada’s PM Mark Carney calls China “more predictable” than the US, notes @katiestallard.bsky.social. But China isn’t benign: a one-party state driven by mercantilism that weaponizes trade and supply chains for leverage. Predictability framed by coercion is still coercion.
February 11, 2026 at 1:20 PM
Canada’s PM Mark Carney calls China “more predictable” than the US, notes @katiestallard.bsky.social. But China isn’t benign: a one-party state driven by mercantilism that weaponizes trade and supply chains for leverage. Predictability framed by coercion is still coercion.
A Canadian sentenced to death in China has had his judgment overturned, amid a thaw in relations between Ottawa and Beijing, CTV News reports. BC resident Robert Schellenberg was detained in 2014 on drug charges, sentenced to 15 years in 2018, and then retried in 2019 after relations cratered.
February 10, 2026 at 1:01 PM
A Canadian sentenced to death in China has had his judgment overturned, amid a thaw in relations between Ottawa and Beijing, CTV News reports. BC resident Robert Schellenberg was detained in 2014 on drug charges, sentenced to 15 years in 2018, and then retried in 2019 after relations cratered.
Jimmy Lai was sentenced to 20 years in prison under Hong Kong’s national security law, a term his son, Sebastien Lai, says is effectively a death sentence for his 78-year-old father, a long-time pro-democracy critic of Beijing. Already in declining health, Lai’s release is urgent.
February 9, 2026 at 5:59 PM
Jimmy Lai was sentenced to 20 years in prison under Hong Kong’s national security law, a term his son, Sebastien Lai, says is effectively a death sentence for his 78-year-old father, a long-time pro-democracy critic of Beijing. Already in declining health, Lai’s release is urgent.
China’s top court has struck down Canadian Robert Schellenberg’s death sentence and ordered a new trial, signalling a diplomatic thaw between Beijing and Ottawa after years of strained relations, @globalnews.ca reports. This follows Prime Minister Mark Carney’s high-stakes trip to China last month.
February 9, 2026 at 3:21 PM
China’s top court has struck down Canadian Robert Schellenberg’s death sentence and ordered a new trial, signalling a diplomatic thaw between Beijing and Ottawa after years of strained relations, @globalnews.ca reports. This follows Prime Minister Mark Carney’s high-stakes trip to China last month.
China’s Supreme People’s Court has made the commendable decision to overturn a lower court’s death sentence for Canadian Robert Schellenberg. He'll have a retrial. Let's hope for a compassionate sentence. 🧵1/6 www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
February 7, 2026 at 12:36 PM
China’s Supreme People’s Court has made the commendable decision to overturn a lower court’s death sentence for Canadian Robert Schellenberg. He'll have a retrial. Let's hope for a compassionate sentence. 🧵1/6 www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
After the @thestar.com asked me to write an op-ed about @mark-carney.bsky.social’s first official visit to China, the piece drew so much attention and discussion that public editor Donovan Vincent asked me to explain further.
Read the full article below.
Read the full article below.
February 6, 2026 at 12:44 PM
After the @thestar.com asked me to write an op-ed about @mark-carney.bsky.social’s first official visit to China, the piece drew so much attention and discussion that public editor Donovan Vincent asked me to explain further.
Read the full article below.
Read the full article below.
US-China update from @crisisgroup.org — Washington aims to deter China in the Indo-Pacific region “through strength.”
Check out the global conflicts tracker from CrisisWatch for more: www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/...
Check out the global conflicts tracker from CrisisWatch for more: www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/...
February 5, 2026 at 7:17 PM
US-China update from @crisisgroup.org — Washington aims to deter China in the Indo-Pacific region “through strength.”
Check out the global conflicts tracker from CrisisWatch for more: www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/...
Check out the global conflicts tracker from CrisisWatch for more: www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/...
Must-read post from Matt Turpin this week:
By the logic of the Carney Doctrine, the PRC’s coercion of Japan (and Taiwan) provides a perfect opportunity for middle powers to stand in solidarity against less liberal world leaders, but that isn’t what they are doing.
open.substack.com/pub/chinaart...
By the logic of the Carney Doctrine, the PRC’s coercion of Japan (and Taiwan) provides a perfect opportunity for middle powers to stand in solidarity against less liberal world leaders, but that isn’t what they are doing.
open.substack.com/pub/chinaart...
Been spendin’ most their lives livin’ in the free trade paradise
It feels a bit like 1995 listening to Canadian and European leaders
open.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 2:54 PM
Must-read post from Matt Turpin this week:
By the logic of the Carney Doctrine, the PRC’s coercion of Japan (and Taiwan) provides a perfect opportunity for middle powers to stand in solidarity against less liberal world leaders, but that isn’t what they are doing.
open.substack.com/pub/chinaart...
By the logic of the Carney Doctrine, the PRC’s coercion of Japan (and Taiwan) provides a perfect opportunity for middle powers to stand in solidarity against less liberal world leaders, but that isn’t what they are doing.
open.substack.com/pub/chinaart...
The latest post on my Strategic Narratives Substack explores the geopolitical, geoeconomic and global security context for Western leaders' recent visits to Beijing.
February 5, 2026 at 1:03 PM
The latest post on my Strategic Narratives Substack explores the geopolitical, geoeconomic and global security context for Western leaders' recent visits to Beijing.
Risks of working with China often outweigh benefits for Canada. So why is the government deepening ties now? Is it short-term hedging vs Trump? And what are the risks? In a new Q&A with the @nationalpost.bsky.social’s @tracymoran.bsky.social, I outline the likely geopolitical & geoecnomic pitfalls.
February 4, 2026 at 1:01 PM
Risks of working with China often outweigh benefits for Canada. So why is the government deepening ties now? Is it short-term hedging vs Trump? And what are the risks? In a new Q&A with the @nationalpost.bsky.social’s @tracymoran.bsky.social, I outline the likely geopolitical & geoecnomic pitfalls.
CCP slavery: UN experts warn that forced labour involving Uyghurs, Tibetans, and other minorities in China may amount to enslavement.
Link to the full UN statement in the comments below.
Link to the full UN statement in the comments below.
February 3, 2026 at 4:42 PM
CCP slavery: UN experts warn that forced labour involving Uyghurs, Tibetans, and other minorities in China may amount to enslavement.
Link to the full UN statement in the comments below.
Link to the full UN statement in the comments below.
EU leaders would be mistaken to look for trade relief in China as Canada has, because they’d likely end up bargaining away the continent’s industrial capacity in the process, Yanmei Xie argues in @politico.com.
Do read her full commentary below.
Do read her full commentary below.
February 3, 2026 at 12:30 PM
EU leaders would be mistaken to look for trade relief in China as Canada has, because they’d likely end up bargaining away the continent’s industrial capacity in the process, Yanmei Xie argues in @politico.com.
Do read her full commentary below.
Do read her full commentary below.
Seeking refuge with authoritarian China because Trump is unreliable isn’t a strategy; it’s a more subtle form of supplication. Smaller powers should diversify and deepen relations with like-minded smaller allies to reduce the leverage of bossy big ones. Thanks to Andy Browne @semafor.com.
View: A former Chinese inmate on the risks of ‘middle powers’ turning to Beijing
The highest-profile Canadian held in China in recent times offers a critique of the choices London, Ottawa, and Berlin appear to be making.
tinyurl.com
February 3, 2026 at 11:59 AM
Seeking refuge with authoritarian China because Trump is unreliable isn’t a strategy; it’s a more subtle form of supplication. Smaller powers should diversify and deepen relations with like-minded smaller allies to reduce the leverage of bossy big ones. Thanks to Andy Browne @semafor.com.
Sir Keir Starmer is in Beijing with an ambitious agenda: stabilise relations, unlock economic gains, and manage risk without compromising security or values. History suggests this is harder than it looks.
Read more on my Substack: Sir Keir and the Red Dragon, on Britain’s PM’s first China visit
Read more on my Substack: Sir Keir and the Red Dragon, on Britain’s PM’s first China visit
Sir Keir and the Red Dragon
What Britain’s prime minister must do to make his first official visit to China a success
michaelkovrig.substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 7:54 PM
Sir Keir Starmer is in Beijing with an ambitious agenda: stabilise relations, unlock economic gains, and manage risk without compromising security or values. History suggests this is harder than it looks.
Read more on my Substack: Sir Keir and the Red Dragon, on Britain’s PM’s first China visit
Read more on my Substack: Sir Keir and the Red Dragon, on Britain’s PM’s first China visit
Ahead of Sir Keir Starmer’s visit to Beijing this week, I wrote in @thetimes.com and on Substack that the prime minister should keep political optics and the leader-level agenda tightly focused on measurable outcomes that advance a long-term strategic shift in UK policy toward China.
January 28, 2026 at 1:48 PM
Ahead of Sir Keir Starmer’s visit to Beijing this week, I wrote in @thetimes.com and on Substack that the prime minister should keep political optics and the leader-level agenda tightly focused on measurable outcomes that advance a long-term strategic shift in UK policy toward China.
This is a significant and moving day for hostages, current and former, around the world. The Israeli military says it has retrieved the body of the last hostage in Gaza, BBC reports. It had been searching for Master Sgt Ran Gvili since the ceasefire with Hamas began.
Article linked below.
Article linked below.
January 27, 2026 at 6:16 PM
This is a significant and moving day for hostages, current and former, around the world. The Israeli military says it has retrieved the body of the last hostage in Gaza, BBC reports. It had been searching for Master Sgt Ran Gvili since the ceasefire with Hamas began.
Article linked below.
Article linked below.
The most important takeaway from the Canada-China trade deal on canola and EVs isn’t the short-term relief. It’s the precedent.
More in my interview with Vassy Kapelos on CTV’s Question Period. Full clip linked in the comments.
More in my interview with Vassy Kapelos on CTV’s Question Period. Full clip linked in the comments.
January 26, 2026 at 7:33 PM
The most important takeaway from the Canada-China trade deal on canola and EVs isn’t the short-term relief. It’s the precedent.
More in my interview with Vassy Kapelos on CTV’s Question Period. Full clip linked in the comments.
More in my interview with Vassy Kapelos on CTV’s Question Period. Full clip linked in the comments.
@mark-carney.bsky.social’s Beijing visit, followed by his Davos speech, signals a genuine inflection point in Canadian foreign policy.
Full argument in my @thestar.com op-ed (link in thread).
Full argument in my @thestar.com op-ed (link in thread).
January 26, 2026 at 4:34 PM
@mark-carney.bsky.social’s Beijing visit, followed by his Davos speech, signals a genuine inflection point in Canadian foreign policy.
Full argument in my @thestar.com op-ed (link in thread).
Full argument in my @thestar.com op-ed (link in thread).
Trump just threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Canada makes a trade deal with China. On Truth Social, he wrote if “Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a “Drop Off Port” for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken.”
January 24, 2026 at 6:16 PM
Trump just threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Canada makes a trade deal with China. On Truth Social, he wrote if “Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a “Drop Off Port” for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken.”
Canadian PM Mark Carney’s January 14–17 visit to China marked a return to normalized diplomatic relations after an eight-year freeze. I’ll have more to say soon, but first read @vinanadjibulla.bsky.social's sharp assessment of the key outcomes in her Policy Magazine article from last week.
What Carney's China Trip Really Signalled
Making sense of Canada’s new "strategic partnership” with the PRC
open.substack.com
January 23, 2026 at 9:39 PM
Canadian PM Mark Carney’s January 14–17 visit to China marked a return to normalized diplomatic relations after an eight-year freeze. I’ll have more to say soon, but first read @vinanadjibulla.bsky.social's sharp assessment of the key outcomes in her Policy Magazine article from last week.
With the UK now approving a HUGE new Chinese embassy at London’s Royal Mint site, attention has zeroed in on the building itself. Former diplomat Charles Parton makes a different point. Buildings don’t spy, intimidate, or interfere. People do.
Read more on Charlie’s Substack, Observing China
Read more on Charlie’s Substack, Observing China
The new Chinese embassy in perspective
The Thinker | No.
substack.com
January 23, 2026 at 5:59 PM
With the UK now approving a HUGE new Chinese embassy at London’s Royal Mint site, attention has zeroed in on the building itself. Former diplomat Charles Parton makes a different point. Buildings don’t spy, intimidate, or interfere. People do.
Read more on Charlie’s Substack, Observing China
Read more on Charlie’s Substack, Observing China
As @lingling-wei.bsky.social and I discuss in her
@wsj.com column this week, Beijing and Ottawa have had a strategic partnership since 2005.
More from both of us in the WSJ, link in the comments.
@wsj.com column this week, Beijing and Ottawa have had a strategic partnership since 2005.
More from both of us in the WSJ, link in the comments.
January 23, 2026 at 2:15 PM
As @lingling-wei.bsky.social and I discuss in her
@wsj.com column this week, Beijing and Ottawa have had a strategic partnership since 2005.
More from both of us in the WSJ, link in the comments.
@wsj.com column this week, Beijing and Ottawa have had a strategic partnership since 2005.
More from both of us in the WSJ, link in the comments.
China is drawing Canada closer. Which country will be next? When Alexander Sjöberg of Danish newspaper @berlingske.bsky.social put that question to me, I forecast South Korea, the United Kingdom, and Germany as Beijing’s next targets.
Article link in comments.
Article link in comments.
January 23, 2026 at 1:55 PM
China is drawing Canada closer. Which country will be next? When Alexander Sjöberg of Danish newspaper @berlingske.bsky.social put that question to me, I forecast South Korea, the United Kingdom, and Germany as Beijing’s next targets.
Article link in comments.
Article link in comments.
Uyghur News highlights something easy to miss in high-level diplomacy.
Imagine watching senior officials meet after your suffering has already been recognized as genocide, and hearing nothing about it at all.
Imagine watching senior officials meet after your suffering has already been recognized as genocide, and hearing nothing about it at all.
January 22, 2026 at 9:27 PM
Uyghur News highlights something easy to miss in high-level diplomacy.
Imagine watching senior officials meet after your suffering has already been recognized as genocide, and hearing nothing about it at all.
Imagine watching senior officials meet after your suffering has already been recognized as genocide, and hearing nothing about it at all.