@konradmuzyka.bsky.social
After a brief pause earlier in the year, Ukraine again faces difficult weeks ahead.
May 26, 2025 at 6:45 AM
After a brief pause earlier in the year, Ukraine again faces difficult weeks ahead.
Russia’s strategy is one of cumulative attrition: continuous pressure through relentless missile/drone attacks very often aimed at civilian populations, sustained troop replacements enabled by ongoing recruitment, and increased production of precision munitions.
May 26, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Russia’s strategy is one of cumulative attrition: continuous pressure through relentless missile/drone attacks very often aimed at civilian populations, sustained troop replacements enabled by ongoing recruitment, and increased production of precision munitions.
For missiles, there are no easy fixes. Russia is producing a lot more long-range precision missiles than the West is producing interceptors.
May 26, 2025 at 6:45 AM
For missiles, there are no easy fixes. Russia is producing a lot more long-range precision missiles than the West is producing interceptors.
High-precision missile usage has surged to unprecedented levels, while drone deployments in early 2025 reached record highs. Ukraine needs cheaper solutions, especially for the Shahed-type threat.
May 26, 2025 at 6:45 AM
High-precision missile usage has surged to unprecedented levels, while drone deployments in early 2025 reached record highs. Ukraine needs cheaper solutions, especially for the Shahed-type threat.
Ukraine is also facing increased missile and drone strikes, including cruise and ballistic missiles and Shahed-type drones, aimed at overwhelming air defences. The reported shortage of PAC-3 interceptors further exacerbates the challenge.
May 26, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Ukraine is also facing increased missile and drone strikes, including cruise and ballistic missiles and Shahed-type drones, aimed at overwhelming air defences. The reported shortage of PAC-3 interceptors further exacerbates the challenge.
Paradoxically, these territorial gains coincide with a reported overall reduction in Russian ground offensive operations across the front, including near Pokrovsk and Toretsk. This raises the question: Why is Russian forward momentum accelerating amid diminished ground attack activity?
May 26, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Paradoxically, these territorial gains coincide with a reported overall reduction in Russian ground offensive operations across the front, including near Pokrovsk and Toretsk. This raises the question: Why is Russian forward momentum accelerating amid diminished ground attack activity?
From a terrain perspective, movement from Novooolenivka toward Stepaniva affords the Russians dominant ground, enabling fire control over approaches to Konstantynivka and interdiction of Ukrainian reinforcement routes from Druzkivka.
May 26, 2025 at 6:45 AM
From a terrain perspective, movement from Novooolenivka toward Stepaniva affords the Russians dominant ground, enabling fire control over approaches to Konstantynivka and interdiction of Ukrainian reinforcement routes from Druzkivka.
The rapid pace of the eastern push risks outflanking Ukrainian defensive lines and denies time for construction of new fortifications. Should Russian forces secure a breakthrough near Rusyn Yar, it would constitute a critical tactical gain, severely degrading Ukrainian defensive depth.
May 26, 2025 at 6:45 AM
The rapid pace of the eastern push risks outflanking Ukrainian defensive lines and denies time for construction of new fortifications. Should Russian forces secure a breakthrough near Rusyn Yar, it would constitute a critical tactical gain, severely degrading Ukrainian defensive depth.
- The eastern axis from Chasiv Yar has seen limited gains over months;
- The southern axis via Toretsk is currently contested;
- The eastern flank, which has gained operational momentum and now threatens Ukrainian rear areas, complicating sustainment and force disposition.
- The southern axis via Toretsk is currently contested;
- The eastern flank, which has gained operational momentum and now threatens Ukrainian rear areas, complicating sustainment and force disposition.
May 26, 2025 at 6:45 AM
- The eastern axis from Chasiv Yar has seen limited gains over months;
- The southern axis via Toretsk is currently contested;
- The eastern flank, which has gained operational momentum and now threatens Ukrainian rear areas, complicating sustainment and force disposition.
- The southern axis via Toretsk is currently contested;
- The eastern flank, which has gained operational momentum and now threatens Ukrainian rear areas, complicating sustainment and force disposition.
Russian forces are advancing along three primary axes toward Konstantynivka:
May 26, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Russian forces are advancing along three primary axes toward Konstantynivka:
Although this line has long ceased to serve as a reliable GLOC, the tempo and vectors of Russian advances northward remain concerning. (Orange colour is fortifications - made by Twitter user @Playfra0)
May 26, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Although this line has long ceased to serve as a reliable GLOC, the tempo and vectors of Russian advances northward remain concerning. (Orange colour is fortifications - made by Twitter user @Playfra0)
Here is the link rochan-consulting.com/wp-content/u...
rochan-consulting.com
April 2, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Here is the link rochan-consulting.com/wp-content/u...
We also provide a forward-looking strategic risk assessment, escalation scenarios, and emerging trends across the regional defence-industrial landscape.
We welcome your thoughts as we continually refine RedHorizon into a sharper, mission-focused intelligence product.
We welcome your thoughts as we continually refine RedHorizon into a sharper, mission-focused intelligence product.
April 2, 2025 at 5:11 PM
We also provide a forward-looking strategic risk assessment, escalation scenarios, and emerging trends across the regional defence-industrial landscape.
We welcome your thoughts as we continually refine RedHorizon into a sharper, mission-focused intelligence product.
We welcome your thoughts as we continually refine RedHorizon into a sharper, mission-focused intelligence product.
- The Baltic states racing toward a post-ceasefire security reality—AI integration, missile development, and 5% defence budgets;
- Poland’s Borsuk IFV contract and nuclear deterrence talks with France.
- Poland’s Borsuk IFV contract and nuclear deterrence talks with France.
April 2, 2025 at 5:11 PM
- The Baltic states racing toward a post-ceasefire security reality—AI integration, missile development, and 5% defence budgets;
- Poland’s Borsuk IFV contract and nuclear deterrence talks with France.
- Poland’s Borsuk IFV contract and nuclear deterrence talks with France.
- Ukraine’s formation of 10 operational Army Corps and the rollout of 15,000 autonomous vehicles;
- Russia’s drone saturation campaign and the latest conscription data;
- Belarus’ continued mobilisation exercises;
- Russia’s drone saturation campaign and the latest conscription data;
- Belarus’ continued mobilisation exercises;
April 2, 2025 at 5:11 PM
- Ukraine’s formation of 10 operational Army Corps and the rollout of 15,000 autonomous vehicles;
- Russia’s drone saturation campaign and the latest conscription data;
- Belarus’ continued mobilisation exercises;
- Russia’s drone saturation campaign and the latest conscription data;
- Belarus’ continued mobilisation exercises;
We’re still finalizing the product’s scope and presentation and aim to wrap up the design phase by the end of April.
📩 In the meantime, we’ll be sharing weekly updates here. The first issue is available in the next tweet.
Thanks for your support!
Konrad
📩 In the meantime, we’ll be sharing weekly updates here. The first issue is available in the next tweet.
Thanks for your support!
Konrad
March 27, 2025 at 6:50 PM
We’re still finalizing the product’s scope and presentation and aim to wrap up the design phase by the end of April.
📩 In the meantime, we’ll be sharing weekly updates here. The first issue is available in the next tweet.
Thanks for your support!
Konrad
📩 In the meantime, we’ll be sharing weekly updates here. The first issue is available in the next tweet.
Thanks for your support!
Konrad
🧭 The goal is to provide early warning, situational awareness, and actionable insight for:
- Government agencies and embassies;
- Armed forces and defense ministries;
- Multilateral organizations;
- Think tanks, analysts, and journalists;
- Defense industry and risk advisory firms;
- Government agencies and embassies;
- Armed forces and defense ministries;
- Multilateral organizations;
- Think tanks, analysts, and journalists;
- Defense industry and risk advisory firms;
March 27, 2025 at 6:50 PM
🧭 The goal is to provide early warning, situational awareness, and actionable insight for:
- Government agencies and embassies;
- Armed forces and defense ministries;
- Multilateral organizations;
- Think tanks, analysts, and journalists;
- Defense industry and risk advisory firms;
- Government agencies and embassies;
- Armed forces and defense ministries;
- Multilateral organizations;
- Think tanks, analysts, and journalists;
- Defense industry and risk advisory firms;
- It provides scenario assessments and risk outlooks
highlighting where escalation is most likely and what to watch.
- It integrates military trends with political, economic, and industrial indicators, helping users connect battlefield dynamics with a broader strategic context.
highlighting where escalation is most likely and what to watch.
- It integrates military trends with political, economic, and industrial indicators, helping users connect battlefield dynamics with a broader strategic context.
March 27, 2025 at 6:50 PM
- It provides scenario assessments and risk outlooks
highlighting where escalation is most likely and what to watch.
- It integrates military trends with political, economic, and industrial indicators, helping users connect battlefield dynamics with a broader strategic context.
highlighting where escalation is most likely and what to watch.
- It integrates military trends with political, economic, and industrial indicators, helping users connect battlefield dynamics with a broader strategic context.
🔍 What makes Red Horizon unique?
- It focuses on operational and strategic developments rather than daily tactical updates.
- It draws on multilingual OSINT, structured forecasting, and defense policy analysis.
- It focuses on operational and strategic developments rather than daily tactical updates.
- It draws on multilingual OSINT, structured forecasting, and defense policy analysis.
March 27, 2025 at 6:50 PM
🔍 What makes Red Horizon unique?
- It focuses on operational and strategic developments rather than daily tactical updates.
- It draws on multilingual OSINT, structured forecasting, and defense policy analysis.
- It focuses on operational and strategic developments rather than daily tactical updates.
- It draws on multilingual OSINT, structured forecasting, and defense policy analysis.