For missiles, there are no easy fixes. Russia is producing a lot more long-range precision missiles than the West is producing interceptors.

Paradoxically, these territorial gains coincide with a reported overall reduction in Russian ground offensive operations across the front, including near Pokrovsk and Toretsk. This raises the question: Why is Russian forward momentum accelerating amid diminished ground attack activity?

From a terrain perspective, movement from Novooolenivka toward Stepaniva affords the Russians dominant ground, enabling fire control over approaches to Konstantynivka and interdiction of Ukrainian reinforcement routes from Druzkivka.

Here’s a brief update on the situation in Ukraine, focusing on Donbas and the air picture.

Over the past week, Russian elements from the 57th and 33rd Motor Rifle Regiments penetrated Ukrainian defensive positions along the TO504 road linking Pokrovsk and Konstantynivka.

We’re excited to announce the test launch of our new product: Red Horizon.
This publication, created by @jominiw.bsky.social, myself and two of our colleagues (Konrad and Viacheslav), assesses the political-military situation in Eastern Europe, focusing on key questions such as:

Between October 2024 and January 2025, 1,300 Ukrainians signed contracts in Poland to form the Ukrainian Legion. These recruits included not only Ukrainians living in Poland but also those living elsewhere in Europe and the world (Photo: /Dominik Smaga /RMF FM)

Today's Russian missile attack in context: Compared to previous missile campaigns, the current attack demonstrates a similar number of missiles used as during the initial strikes on the power grid.

Suppose one of these former Soviet ICBM bases could house Oreshnik. Let the game begin.

Russian missile strikes in context. The Sunday attack was the largest since 29.12.2023 (122 vs 120 missiles) and the second largest since September 2022.