knassre.bsky.social
@knassre.bsky.social
Software engineer, electoral geography hobbyist, and puggle-lover.
Even if Ds don't lose ANY seats, and they kept all 13 seats, that wouldn't be a dummymander because they would STILL be winning fewer seats than they should under a fair map, so the map still favors the GOP.
November 15, 2025 at 5:38 PM
The most famous recent dummymander was the Arkansas map in hte 2010s which was designed to give Dems a chance at multiple seats, but ended up ensuring they won ZERO seats (even though under a fair map or a non-dummymander gerrymander they would win 1 seat).
November 15, 2025 at 5:37 PM
That isn't even remotely closer to a dummymander. A dummymander would be if Democrats GAINED multiple seats, to the point that Democrats win a larger percentage of seats than they should for their vote share (e.g. Democrats get 50% of the vote but win 21/38 seats).
November 15, 2025 at 5:35 PM
In other words: karma happened, go kick sand.
November 14, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Lol who said anything about race? Nope, it's just a PURE partisan gerrymander, tit-for-tat RETRIBUTION for what happened in Texas.
November 14, 2025 at 6:00 AM
They had to if they wanted to win, seeing as how every district was BLOODY RED.
November 13, 2025 at 7:48 PM
We need president AOC (fingers crossed) to enter office with at least 230 members of the house, and at least 51 senators (52 if by some dark satanic reverse-miracle we don't manage to get rid of Fetterman). That scenario likely means scoring at least one reach seat this year (NE, OH, TX, IA).
November 13, 2025 at 4:56 PM
hand Biden got dealt (itty bitty house majority with Golden in it, and 50-seat senate majority where Machinema could play Cesar and torpedo the REALLY transformative stuff).
November 13, 2025 at 4:54 PM
And yes, we DO need to think about 2028. Winning the house in 2026 is just a band-aid to prevent another big-bullshit-bill from passing, and to get some more leverage in budget negotiations. What we really need is for the next president to have a solid house and Senate majority, unlike the shit...
November 13, 2025 at 4:54 PM
but the point is that they need to be measured as REAL risks, as opposed to other places where there is literally ZERO risk to challenging the incumbent Dem (cough cough Jeffries cough cough).
November 13, 2025 at 4:51 PM
There are many scenarios, but 2 specific bad ones that have some nontrivial risk of occurring:
- MGP gets #3 while other D vs the R get #1 and #2, and other D loses to the R in '26
- MGP vs other D in '26, other D wins, then goes vs R in '28 and loses

How likely those are is debatable,
November 13, 2025 at 4:51 PM
benefit from them in OTHER ways like advocating for their districts, offering different perspectives, or pointing out hypocrisies that need to be pointed out.
November 13, 2025 at 2:52 PM
We need a BIG majority with the next D president, like 240, so the median vote isn't a huge policy bottleneck (the fact that Pelosi got any of the Biden legislation through congress was a miracle and testament to her immense talent). That way, votes 219-240 we can afford to lose, but can still
November 13, 2025 at 2:52 PM
And also:
- She is someone whose presence pushes some buttons with the Democrats that need to be pushed. For that, I'm willing to overlook quite a bit as long as she isn't #218.
November 13, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Let me put it this way:
- She is NOT who you want to be the 218th vote when Democrats regain the WH
- She IS someone who you'd want to be the 218th vote for a Dem speaker, which would deprive Trump of the ability to pass ANY legislation.
November 13, 2025 at 2:50 PM
E.g. she recently called out that disgusting shit Chuy García just pulled with his seat, which is exactly the kind of thing many people HATE about the establishment. So she's riding some of the anti-establishment vibes. Also, she's thankfully NOT a pro-lifer.
November 13, 2025 at 2:47 PM
She's not exactly the typical rage-enducing moderate for the base to unseat. She has definitely carved her own distinct non-establishment niche which pre-emptively hampers the level of rage required to oust her (unlike some other incumbents who are in trouble, most of them RIGHTLY).
November 13, 2025 at 2:47 PM
- Cuellar sucks and is probably one of the MOST deserving of getting primaried, but his district got even worse so he & Gonzalez are also on the no-primary list (Gonzalez is also SCREWED)
- Davis is also SCREWED
November 13, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Post redistricting:
- Gray's district only voted for Kamala by 1%, so he's still on the "DON'T PRIMARY" list, unless he gets much worse.
- Harder's district now voted for Kamala by 12%, so if he becomes shitty can replace with a liberal (maybe not a full progressive).
- Kaptur is SCREWED
November 13, 2025 at 11:30 AM