Kevin Morris
@kevintmorris.bsky.social
Senior Research Fellow and Voting Policy Scholar at @BrennanCenter.org. Democracy is good, prisons are bad. Usually on a bike, beach, or backpacking trip.
kevintmorris.com
Posts regularly deleted using https://bsky.jazco.dev/cleanup.
kevintmorris.com
Posts regularly deleted using https://bsky.jazco.dev/cleanup.
A lot of news today, but don't miss the two big threats-to-democracy ones:
1. SCOTUS will decide whether states can count ballots post marked by, but received after, election day. Given vote-mode polarization in recent years, this could matter a lot
1. SCOTUS will decide whether states can count ballots post marked by, but received after, election day. Given vote-mode polarization in recent years, this could matter a lot
November 10, 2025 at 11:49 PM
A lot of news today, but don't miss the two big threats-to-democracy ones:
1. SCOTUS will decide whether states can count ballots post marked by, but received after, election day. Given vote-mode polarization in recent years, this could matter a lot
1. SCOTUS will decide whether states can count ballots post marked by, but received after, election day. Given vote-mode polarization in recent years, this could matter a lot
Will report back
November 10, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Will report back
Something else that's interesting, at least in Virginia: We don't see big swings left in places where turnout bottomed out last year, relative to 2020. In other words: These probably aren't just a bunch of Democrats who sat out last fall that pushed things left this week.
November 7, 2025 at 7:10 PM
Something else that's interesting, at least in Virginia: We don't see big swings left in places where turnout bottomed out last year, relative to 2020. In other words: These probably aren't just a bunch of Democrats who sat out last fall that pushed things left this week.
I was thinking the same thing when I biked by this spot in Canarsie the other day 😂
November 7, 2025 at 2:10 PM
I was thinking the same thing when I biked by this spot in Canarsie the other day 😂
Here's Bergen County (NJ) too, just for good measure
November 7, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Here's Bergen County (NJ) too, just for good measure
One thing I'm seeing over and over again is that leftward-shifts aren't only being driven by places with sky-high turnout; places with lower turnout also shifted left around the same amount, implying a decent amount of voters changing their minds
November 6, 2025 at 11:13 PM
One thing I'm seeing over and over again is that leftward-shifts aren't only being driven by places with sky-high turnout; places with lower turnout also shifted left around the same amount, implying a decent amount of voters changing their minds
Holds up when accounting for rough racial demographics, too:
November 6, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Holds up when accounting for rough racial demographics, too:
Don't cut people's benefits if you want them to vote for you:
November 6, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Don't cut people's benefits if you want them to vote for you:
Don't fire workers if you want them to vote for you:
November 6, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Don't fire workers if you want them to vote for you:
I'm not seeing a tremendous amount of patterning in the relative turnout numbers
November 6, 2025 at 9:11 PM
I'm not seeing a tremendous amount of patterning in the relative turnout numbers
In NYC, it's a little harder to conceptualize the shift, since Cuomo and Mamdani split the Democratic vote. But we can look at Mamdani's vote share in the precincts that Trump won last year. No surprises here: Mamdani did better in Trump districts that were more heavily Latino
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM
In NYC, it's a little harder to conceptualize the shift, since Cuomo and Mamdani split the Democratic vote. But we can look at Mamdani's vote share in the precincts that Trump won last year. No surprises here: Mamdani did better in Trump districts that were more heavily Latino
In New Jersey, we can look at this a few different ways. I've pulled the trends across all the counties, where the relationship is obvious. But we can also see them at the precinct-level in both places I've looked (Passaic and Bergen)
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM
In New Jersey, we can look at this a few different ways. I've pulled the trends across all the counties, where the relationship is obvious. But we can also see them at the precinct-level in both places I've looked (Passaic and Bergen)
Let's start at the highest level -- state legislative districts in Virginia. With 100 races, we get to see a lot of variation. In VA, no districts are majority Latino. But we see where Latinos made up a larger share of the population, there was a big shift left. Inverse true in whitest districts
November 6, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Let's start at the highest level -- state legislative districts in Virginia. With 100 races, we get to see a lot of variation. In VA, no districts are majority Latino. But we see where Latinos made up a larger share of the population, there was a big shift left. Inverse true in whitest districts
Let's keep a good thing going. What's up, Virginia House districts?
November 6, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Let's keep a good thing going. What's up, Virginia House districts?
Here's Bergen County. Clearly -- at the very, very least in New Jersey -- there is substantial evidence that the Republican Party failed to maintain partisan shifts among Latinos
November 6, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Here's Bergen County. Clearly -- at the very, very least in New Jersey -- there is substantial evidence that the Republican Party failed to maintain partisan shifts among Latinos
Passaic County, NJ, precinct-level results. A huge shift toward the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, relative to 2024, in Latino-dominant precincts
November 6, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Passaic County, NJ, precinct-level results. A huge shift toward the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, relative to 2024, in Latino-dominant precincts
This holds, more generally, across nonwhite precincts as a whole. The more racially diverse a precinct Biden-Trump precinct was, the more they shifted back toward the Democrat this week:
November 6, 2025 at 3:31 PM
This holds, more generally, across nonwhite precincts as a whole. The more racially diverse a precinct Biden-Trump precinct was, the more they shifted back toward the Democrat this week:
Even in NYC we see evidence of Latinos swinging back. These are the precincts that Biden won in 2020 but flipped to Trump in 2024. The Latino precincts moved back toward the Democratic candidate in 2025!
November 6, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Even in NYC we see evidence of Latinos swinging back. These are the precincts that Biden won in 2020 but flipped to Trump in 2024. The Latino precincts moved back toward the Democratic candidate in 2025!
Good question from @jayleetx.com prompted this look. The precincts that were strong-Harris and strong-Cuomo looked like other more progressive precincts on the ballot initiatives
November 6, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Good question from @jayleetx.com prompted this look. The precincts that were strong-Harris and strong-Cuomo looked like other more progressive precincts on the ballot initiatives
Yes -- definitely a lot of overlap here. The same precincts are in red in both plots:
November 6, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Yes -- definitely a lot of overlap here. The same precincts are in red in both plots:
I sort of expected that Cuomo-supporting but Democrat-leaning neighborhoods would have been more NIMBY / more anti-Questions 2--5. They were, a little, but by less than I'd expected:
November 6, 2025 at 2:49 PM
I sort of expected that Cuomo-supporting but Democrat-leaning neighborhoods would have been more NIMBY / more anti-Questions 2--5. They were, a little, but by less than I'd expected:
Lotta incorrect finger pointing on the demise of Question 6 (the move to on-year elections) in NYC. Conservative precincts voted against it at the highest rate
November 5, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Lotta incorrect finger pointing on the demise of Question 6 (the move to on-year elections) in NYC. Conservative precincts voted against it at the highest rate
