Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham.bsky.social
Psephologist, polling analyst and poll transparency advocate, political commentator, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Not-A-Pollster.
#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 37 L-NP 28 Grn 10 IND 15* other 11
* generic IND option, inflated cf what would happen at election
My 2PP estimate 58.5 to ALP (-0.5)
#nswpol
* generic IND option, inflated cf what would happen at election
My 2PP estimate 58.5 to ALP (-0.5)
#nswpol
November 10, 2025 at 11:43 PM
#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 37 L-NP 28 Grn 10 IND 15* other 11
* generic IND option, inflated cf what would happen at election
My 2PP estimate 58.5 to ALP (-0.5)
#nswpol
* generic IND option, inflated cf what would happen at election
My 2PP estimate 58.5 to ALP (-0.5)
#nswpol
As it's that particular anniversary just reposting a link to my article re pre-Dismissal polling and other pseph themes kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/12/psep...
Psephology And The Palace Letters
Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com
November 10, 2025 at 11:23 PM
As it's that particular anniversary just reposting a link to my article re pre-Dismissal polling and other pseph themes kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/12/psep...
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/10/tasm... I've expanded my article on the upcoming expansion of Clark to include a summary of the initial submissions. #politas
Tasmanian Redistribution: Clark Must Expand, But Where?
Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.
kevinbonham.blogspot.com
November 10, 2025 at 8:54 PM
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/10/tasm... I've expanded my article on the upcoming expansion of Clark to include a summary of the initial submissions. #politas
Be interesting to see other polls test these, these net likeability ratings from #ResolvePM for Hanson and Joyce are much better than usual for them. No raw figures alas.
November 10, 2025 at 6:31 AM
Be interesting to see other polls test these, these net likeability ratings from #ResolvePM for Hanson and Joyce are much better than usual for them. No raw figures alas.
Anthropologists have discovered a lost tribe that uses the "one, two, many" system of counting.
November 10, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Anthropologists have discovered a lost tribe that uses the "one, two, many" system of counting.
🍿🍿🍿Even bigger chaos in the Canberra Liberals! #actpol
The Canberra Liberals' leader and her deputy are stepping down, a week and a half after the former leader and another backbencher were suspended from the party room for crossing the floor
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
Breaking: Leanne Castley steps down as Canberra Liberals leader
Leanne Castley's resignation comes after weeks of silence following the removal of Elizabeth Lee and Peter Cain from the Canberra Liberals party room.
www.abc.net.au
November 10, 2025 at 1:25 AM
🍿🍿🍿Even bigger chaos in the Canberra Liberals! #actpol
Redistribution initial submissions for Tas are up:
Party positions:
ALP - Clark takes Kingston and Kingston Beach
Lib - Clark takes Bridgewater, Gagebrook etc
Greens- primary option as per Labor, also suggests committee consider Clark = Hobart City and south, Franklin takes Glenorchy.
#politas
Party positions:
ALP - Clark takes Kingston and Kingston Beach
Lib - Clark takes Bridgewater, Gagebrook etc
Greens- primary option as per Labor, also suggests committee consider Clark = Hobart City and south, Franklin takes Glenorchy.
#politas
November 10, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Redistribution initial submissions for Tas are up:
Party positions:
ALP - Clark takes Kingston and Kingston Beach
Lib - Clark takes Bridgewater, Gagebrook etc
Greens- primary option as per Labor, also suggests committee consider Clark = Hobart City and south, Franklin takes Glenorchy.
#politas
Party positions:
ALP - Clark takes Kingston and Kingston Beach
Lib - Clark takes Bridgewater, Gagebrook etc
Greens- primary option as per Labor, also suggests committee consider Clark = Hobart City and south, Franklin takes Glenorchy.
#politas
#ResolvePM ALP 33 L-NP 29 Grn 12 ON 12 IND 7 others 6
Their 2PP by respondent prefs 53 to ALP (-2)
My last-election conversion 54.6 to ALP (-0.8)
Their 2PP by respondent prefs 53 to ALP (-2)
My last-election conversion 54.6 to ALP (-0.8)
November 9, 2025 at 7:16 AM
#ResolvePM ALP 33 L-NP 29 Grn 12 ON 12 IND 7 others 6
Their 2PP by respondent prefs 53 to ALP (-2)
My last-election conversion 54.6 to ALP (-0.8)
Their 2PP by respondent prefs 53 to ALP (-2)
My last-election conversion 54.6 to ALP (-0.8)
A Nuclear for Australia poll is getting some publicity but the design has a couple of leading Qs that make it more likely respondent will favour nuclear power. #pollshapedobject
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net
November 7, 2025 at 11:42 PM
A Nuclear for Australia poll is getting some publicity but the design has a couple of leading Qs that make it more likely respondent will favour nuclear power. #pollshapedobject
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...
Hanson misleading Americans about our election results at CPAC - the primary vote figure isn't quite right (actually 34.56%) but more importantly a primary vote isn't a "margin" and it isn't the second lowest winning primary vote ever anyway.
November 7, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Hanson misleading Americans about our election results at CPAC - the primary vote figure isn't quite right (actually 34.56%) but more importantly a primary vote isn't a "margin" and it isn't the second lowest winning primary vote ever anyway.
I'm appearing (remotely) at JSCEM this morning, here's the batting order.
November 6, 2025 at 9:48 PM
I'm appearing (remotely) at JSCEM this morning, here's the batting order.
#DemosAU Vic (state) 51-49 to Coalition, again not an election winning lead. #springst
www.6newsau.com/post/exclusi...
www.6newsau.com/post/exclusi...
November 5, 2025 at 8:18 AM
#DemosAU Vic (state) 51-49 to Coalition, again not an election winning lead. #springst
www.6newsau.com/post/exclusi...
www.6newsau.com/post/exclusi...
#DemosAU Tas (state) Lib 41 ALP 24 Green 15 IND 14 SFF 2 other 4 #politas
pulsetasmania.com.au/news/rocklif...
pulsetasmania.com.au/news/rocklif...
November 3, 2025 at 8:00 PM
#DemosAU Tas (state) Lib 41 ALP 24 Green 15 IND 14 SFF 2 other 4 #politas
pulsetasmania.com.au/news/rocklif...
pulsetasmania.com.au/news/rocklif...
Chess news: Australia's top two active GMs Bobby Cheng and Temur Kuybokarov have both won their round 1 matches in the FIDE World Cup and are through to play former world champs challenger Peter Leko and Indian megastar R Praggnanandhaa respectively.
November 3, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Chess news: Australia's top two active GMs Bobby Cheng and Temur Kuybokarov have both won their round 1 matches in the FIDE World Cup and are through to play former world champs challenger Peter Leko and Indian megastar R Praggnanandhaa respectively.
Reposted by Kevin Bonham
The by-election for the Queensland state seat of Hinchinbrook will be held on November 29. Former Katter MP Nick Dametto held it on a 13.2 per cent margin but resigned to run for mayor of Townsville. Premier David Crisafulli announced the election date today in a campaign video. #qldvotes
November 3, 2025 at 4:29 AM
The by-election for the Queensland state seat of Hinchinbrook will be held on November 29. Former Katter MP Nick Dametto held it on a 13.2 per cent margin but resigned to run for mayor of Townsville. Premier David Crisafulli announced the election date today in a campaign video. #qldvotes
Note also that exhaust appears artificially high for 2016 as a result of preference throws continuing after the winners were mathematically certain.
Senate ballot paper completion rates since Senate election reform in 2016. Includes 2025 break downs of ATL v BTL votes, and of ATL votes by preference, by state and by party. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-part...
November 3, 2025 at 1:01 AM
Note also that exhaust appears artificially high for 2016 as a result of preference throws continuing after the winners were mathematically certain.
Missed this but there was a #Freshwater federal poll "reported" in the Herald Sun yesterday but the report is missing the Greens primary and precise in field dates so it does not at this stage qualify for my aggregate.
November 2, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Missed this but there was a #Freshwater federal poll "reported" in the Herald Sun yesterday but the report is missing the Greens primary and precise in field dates so it does not at this stage qualify for my aggregate.
November 2, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Reposted by Kevin Bonham
Silence from Canberra Liberals leader only making a bad situation worse: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-01/canberra-liberals-internal-feud-distracting-from-job-opposition/105959904
Silence from Canberra Liberals leader only making a bad situation worse
After suspending two backbenchers from her party room this week, Canberra Liberals leader Leanne Castley has been silent. And it's hard to see how staying silent is helping Canberrans build trust in her party and her as the ACT's alternative chief minister.
www.abc.net.au
October 31, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Silence from Canberra Liberals leader only making a bad situation worse: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-01/canberra-liberals-internal-feud-distracting-from-job-opposition/105959904
For the first time in its entire 26 year history The Coven (sporadic these days Hobart g*th club)
will tonight be within 1 km of where I am living at the time.
will tonight be within 1 km of where I am living at the time.
October 31, 2025 at 12:09 PM
For the first time in its entire 26 year history The Coven (sporadic these days Hobart g*th club)
will tonight be within 1 km of where I am living at the time.
will tonight be within 1 km of where I am living at the time.
Word has been circulating that the AEC are not going to redo the 2PP in Bradfield so we will never officially know whether Labor really won the 2PP there or not.
October 31, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Word has been circulating that the AEC are not going to redo the 2PP in Bradfield so we will never officially know whether Labor really won the 2PP there or not.
